and now back to our regularly scheduled program....

[covelj70]

......

I mean, I hate to interupt all of the riveting arguments about drugs, golf, and sports announcers but there is a little race coming up called the Kentucky Derby so I thought I would see if I could get us back on track (pun intended) here and pose a question for the board.

What are we to make of Overanalyze and his pattern?

On one hand, he is very fast with a 0 as a two year old that I think (don\'t know fig for sure but I am pretty sure) he approximately paired in his second start as a three year old which we all believe is a great sign of health.  theortically, he still has natural improvement left vs. his 2 year old top which many of the fast ones this year don\'t. He also galloped out like a monster on Saturday suggesting the extra 1/8th of a mile won\'t be a problem.

On the other hand, assuming he did get back or close to his 2 year old top in the Ark Derby, he has a classic alternating pattern where he has gone backward everytime after a \"good\" race.

What are we to make of that?  Thoughts?

[Wrongly]

Jim

Sorry but I just can\'t excuse being sired by Dixie Union.  Sure Gone Astray, Justwhistledixie, and Dixie City were graded winners at nine furlongs, and Grasshopper just missed in the Travers.  Still, adding his breeding to Pletcher\'s stats and he\'s a toss in my book.  Will wait to see Saturday\'s fig but doubt it was anything more than a pair up of his last.

[touchgold]

well, the trend is your friend in regards to pletcher. Tossing him in the derby seems like logical play. But easier said than done as I had gemologist on most of my tickets last year

[big18741]

Revolutionary with an alternating pattern as well.
Traffic issues two back but the same idea.

Overanalyze was sluggish when a distant 3rd over the CD strip in the Iroquis.

[Dick Powell]

I would agree about Dixie Union until Union Rags won the Belmont last year.

[drbillym]

What kind of figure did Frac Daddy run as a 2yo?  He ran his guts out Saturday and a return to his 2yo form could make him a longshot not to be overlooked.

[miff]

Last 3/8ths in 39.20, winner like 38.69, yikes!

[big18741]

Were they in quicksand between 6f\'s and a mile?

26.65 quarter

How is that possible?

[TGJB]

His pattern would be easier to analyze (ahem) if we knew why he skipped an entire round of preps. No way Pletcher goes into the Derby on 3 weeks rest if he doesn\'t have to.

[covelj70]

1) Union Rags wasn\'t distance limited so I can\'t worry too much about the Dixie Union and the horse galloped out great after running 1 1/8 so I don\'t really see the distance as an issue

2) Super Saver, Bluegrass Cat, Sam P, Circular Quay are all Pletcher horses (just off the top of my head, there may be others) that have run their numbers in the Derby so I cant\' just arbitrarily toss his horses.  Sure, alot of his have flimpped but part of that is how hard he typically pushes to get them there. Another point is that most horses don\'t run their number in the Derby because of the distance and conditions. He has just run a ton of them so how many bad ones he has had are magnified.

Overanalyze is not as fast as the ones I really like for the race so I am not saying I like him to win or hit the board, mroe than anything, I was just trying to get us back on topic here.

[covelj70]

JB, Super Saver came into the Derby out of the Ark Derby on 3 weeks and he ran his number in Ky so I don\'t think we can be too worried about the 3 weeks.

I think Pletcher rightly picked this spot because a) he knows Overanalyze isn\'t as good as Verazaano or Revolutionary so he didn\'t want to run them against one another and b) he rightly handicapped this race as coming up alot softer than the other Derby preps

[TGJB]

SS had only 4 weeks before the Arkansas Derby, he was gonna be on 3 weeks rest either before or after. Overanalyze was a probable for Sunland where he would have been a strong favorite, 2 weeks prior to the OP race, and didn\'t go (Pletcher sent a third stringer). Is it possible it\'s nothing? Sure. But I doubt it.

Which doesn\'t mean he\'s not okay now...

[touchgold]

well, 2012 pletcher had gemologist/el padrino....2011 stay thirsty/uncle mo(scratched)..2010 yes super saver, but had 3 others not hit the board....I guess if youre going to use him, you may as well get paid and take the odds....

[mjellish]

Union Rags didn\'t look anything like a typical Dixie Union, especially on the rear end.

Just saying.

[ajkreider]

If Frac Daddy hits the super, I might have to quit the game.  

Beaten 16 by Lucky in the Holy Bull, and 18 by Orb in the Florida Derby (with no excuse in the latter).  He\'s more likely to finish in the bottom four.