and now back to our regularly scheduled program....

[richiebee]

Speculation, patter, conjecture and yes, overanalysis.

Any chance pre entry special, say top 30 (ugh) point earners plus ties,
sees the light of day by midweek?

Speaking of the point system, all hail McPeek\'s Java Whatever, standing in the Derby gate with 100 points and nary a dirt win.

[TGJB]

Like Animal Kingdom?

At least this one has a couple of dirt figures.

[PonyBologna]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Speculation, patter, conjecture and yes,
> overanalysis.
>
> Any chance pre entry special, say top 30 (ugh)
> point earners plus ties,
> sees the light of day by midweek?
>
> Speaking of the point system, all hail McPeek\'s
> Java Whatever, standing in the Derby gate with 100
> points and nary a dirt win.


How many dirt wins did Animal Kingdom have going into the Derby?

[PonyBologna]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Like Animal Kingdom?
>
> At least this one has a couple of dirt figures.

My bad on the repeat. Sorry.

[Eight Belles]

PonyBologna Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Speculation, patter, conjecture and yes,
> > overanalysis.
> >
> > Any chance pre entry special, say top 30 (ugh)
> > point earners plus ties,
> > sees the light of day by midweek?
> >
> > Speaking of the point system, all hail McPeek\'s
> > Java Whatever, standing in the Derby gate with
> 100
> > points and nary a dirt win.
>
>
> How many dirt wins did Animal Kingdom have going
> into the Derby?

He got raves for his works over the Churchill strip, so we could listen out to see if we hear that about Java.  If not, then feel safe to toss.  Irwin also has a good track record with horses in races like this, so I\'m inclined to keep that in mind.  Java isn\'t an Irwin horse, however.

[ajkreider]

And decent ones at that.  Which is more than can be said for Black Onyx - whose one dry dirt effort resulted in a 19 length defeat.  A complete toss unless the track comes up wet.

[mjellish]

AQU and BEL are dirt, arent\' they?  He broke his Maiden 2nd time out on the dirt at AQU.  So he\'s had 3 dirt races.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

Me thinks you barking up the wrong tree by using Java War as a case of the new system not working.

I think this is exactly the kind of horse you want in the Derby.  Ran a fine 2nd to the likely Derby favorite, on dirt, then circled from last after an awful start, albeit on poly.  

I think you can make a longshot case for the horse, which makes him interesting.  

And he is certainly improving at the right time, which is the kind of horse we want in the race.

You would have preferred a non-injured Shanghai Bobby, who clearly has not gotten better from 2 to 3 and would have been a non-factor?

[Wrongly]

Jim

FYI, Dixie Union has sired 20 graded stakes winners with Overanalyze being only the 3rd to win a 9 furlong race.  The others being Justwhistledixie who won the 1 1/8 Bonnie Miss at GP in a field of 6. Previously mentioned, Union Rags is the sire\'s only graded stake winner over 9 furlongs and he had a stamina oriented female family.  Guess you can also give credit to Grasshopper who finished 2nd in the Travers stakes.  

His half brother Might Moonsoon was 3rd Best Pal S.(G2,Dmr,6½f) and 3rd in the Lost in the Fog S.(GG,5f) won one other race a 6F Op Claim at Oaklawn as a 3-year old.  Another half Meadow Breeze won the 7F Matron S.(G1), and another 7f the My Trusty Cat Stake at Delta Downs, never finishing in the money in anything longer.

Think you might want to rethink the prospects of this one at the 1 1/4 Derby distance.

[covelj70]

You have to look at each horse as an individual.

This horse just ran a very big figure in a 1 1/8th race and galloped out like a monster and we are worried that some of the sire\'s offspring didn\'t run that far?

Alot of folks made similar arguments about Distored Humor before Dross won the Belmont and the BC Classic

Folks said the same about Elusive Quality before Smarty won the Derby

People said the same about Dixie Union before Union Rags won the Belmont

People said the same about Forestry before Shackleford won the Preakness

Each horse has to be considered as an individual and the way he just ran and galloped out going 1 1/8, I see no reason he won\'t get the 1 1/4

now, as I said in an earlier post, he\'s not my pick because he not as fast as a bunch of the others but my not liking him has nothing to do with the pedigree

[miff]

\"all hail McPeek\'s Java Whatever, standing in the Derby gate with 100 points and nary a dirt win\"

Bee,
...and for those who like him,one of the fastest internals run by any 3yr old in a prep, his finish in the Tampa Derby.


Mike

[ajkreider]

I\'m pretty sure the two you are referring to were off-the-turf, and so most probably wet fast.  

He was only entered in one main track race, and finished 12 back of Cerro in third.

[moosepalm]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> 2) Super Saver, Bluegrass Cat, Sam P, Circular
> Quay are all Pletcher horses (just off the top of
> my head, there may be others) that have run their
> numbers in the Derby so I cant\' just arbitrarily
> toss his horses.  Sure, alot of his have flimpped
> but part of that is how hard he typically pushes
> to get them there. Another point is that most
> horses don\'t run their number in the Derby because
> of the distance and conditions. He has just run a
> ton of them so how many bad ones he has had are
> magnified.
>
> Overanalyze is not as fast as the ones I really
> like for the race so I am not saying I like him to
> win or hit the board, mroe than anything, I was
> just trying to get us back on topic here.

You can add Invisible Ink and Any Given Saturday to that list.  That gives 6 for 31 who have run their number, three of whom had run 2\'s at Churchill as two year olds, three of whom all raced in the same Derby, and none of whom raced since testing protocol has changed.  The bad ones he had are magnified not just because of the sheer volume but because of unfulfilled promise.  All such numbers are merely circumstantial, however, and probably can be filed under \"my theory can kick your theory\'s butt,\" and ultimately rendered meaningless by a golden rail and paint skimming ride.  With more than two weeks until we know who\'s actually going to be in the gate, let alone where, I think \"Overanalyze\" is as good a starting point as any.

[richiebee]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richiebee,
>
> Me thinks you barking up the wrong tree by using
> Java War as a case of the new system not working.

From a TG point of view, the point system worked if the fastest horses make the
field of 20 and no able bodied obviously fast enough horses are excluded.
 
> I think this is exactly the kind of horse you want
> in the Derby.  Ran a fine 2nd to the likely Derby
> favorite, on dirt, then circled from last after an
> awful start, albeit on poly.  
>
> I think you can make a longshot case for the
> horse, which makes him interesting.  
 
Haven\'t seen his # yet, but sorry do not think I will be looking for lightning
to strike twice, where we have a colt winning its first lifetime dirt race in the
Derby.

> And he is certainly improving at the right time,
> which is the kind of horse we want in the race.

Sure Jim, I understand the thinking, I mean one of these years a polytrack prepped
Blue Grass winner will factor in the Derby, so yeah, why not weight the race as
heavily as the dirt preps such as Fla Derby, Ark Derby, Wood, etc.

As to the comparisons of any colt this year to Animal Kingdom, AK turned out to
be a very special and very well managed runner; we know that now. But reading
posts leading up to the 2011 Derby, it seems as if the Herd Whisperer and
DocBillyM were two of the only TG board presences who identified this one as a
Derby factor; I certainly did not.
 
> You would have preferred a non-injured Shanghai
> Bobby, who clearly has not gotten better from 2 to
> 3 and would have been a non-factor?

I would not prefer a horse to be entered off its 2YO form if it was disappointing
as a 3YO; I would trust the owner/trainer to do the right thing by the horse. If
not ready for prime time, he stays on the bench. That being said, I will still
look for a colt with 2YO foundation and some recent form in this years race,
rather than looking at lightly raced runners. Maybe I will be looking at a Cal
bred slow rat who will have to go around most of the field, who probably wont
have the TG number power, who is currently perched right at #20 on your points
list.

Hey, just once before I die, I\'d like to be screaming for the illogical horse who
prevails when the race \"falls apart\".

[richiebee]

Covel:

My favorite was always marathon turfer Balto Star, for TAP, who was sired by
distance limited dirt only sire Glitterman.