Frac Daddy

[Fairmount1]

Pattern wise, I have to believe Overanalyze is a play at value odds of probably 20-1 plus.  

The TAP angle has me reeling but here\'s what I\'m thinking:  If I have to play Pletcher in a p3, p4, double, (win position) it would be overanalyze and revolutionary.  But I think overanalyze is far better value of the two.  But wow, I obviously question Pletcher\'s horses\' abilities over this surface and I\'ve been burned by Pletcher \"value\" plays in the Derby for years and years....so this might be the year I say No way...you beat me, you beat me....but I\'m a tiny bit on the fence but down to just those two.  

I\'m not excited about Frac Daddy winning----just 3rd or 4th on his best.  

Before Titletown Five runs, I get the impression you might take back with Falling Sky a bit?  Is this accurate?  If Titletown Five makes the Derby, Fast pace is certain but if not, it\'s basically yours with Golden breathing down your throat with Verrazano close behind.  I know you can\'t control the jockey or the horse, but what\'s your thoughts on Falling Sky and the pace because it\'s a huge question with this Derby.  

Thanks Jim.

[covelj70]

FM,

I think we are in the same boat with falling sky as a bunch of the others. All of the forwardly placed horses have distance concerns to varying degrees so everyone is going to be looking to sit off someone else which has the makings of a very slow early pace unless G. Stevens gets crafty and tries to sneak away. I mentioned that possibility last week here on the board and I think it\'s a very real one.

[jbelfior]

Which is why I\'m surprised no one has mentioned GC on this board. He ran the best pace and final figure prep race and will probably go off double digits.Flashback as good as any of the chalk in the race.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[drbillym]

Not even Richiebee mentions GC!  The less publicity the better, and Krigger, like Guittierez last year, will not draw a lot of play.  Should be at least 10/1.  Send it in.

[TreadHead]

Goldencents did NOT run the best last race figures (unless you are talking about Beyer or some other simpleton figures), not by a longshot, the Wood and FL Derby were both better on TG and the SA Derby compares more with the Ark Derby.

He also did NOT run the best pace figures, unless you are only talking about early pace and completely ignoring late pace.  He has never cracked 100 on BRIS late pace, whereas most of the main competitors have.  His Brohammer %Energy use among the highest in the field, consistently in the 52-53% range.  

I don\'t think he has any shot regardless, but if the track plays anything like it did last night tiring out horses that don\'t conserve energy late, he REALLY doesn\'t have a shot.

[Silver Charm]

Tread....there were predictions of rain yesterday so I have a feeling the Track was dried out and loose. This has happened before at CD pre-Derby where Maintenence is trying to get ahead if the wratger chanve. The result is impacts the racing surface as is.

We debated it here the day Chilluki broke her Maiden going 4.5 and got a 109 Byer and like a 2 or 3 on Ragozin. I am Church now Praying for a fair surface.

[TreadHead]

Completely agreed on the surface last night, it is far too early to pass judgement on the new track crew, they obviously had left the track overly dry because there was supposed to be heavy rain starting at 6pm that really only ever came in as a light trickle.

That said, there is also rain forecast for Saturday as well, which to me means a possibility of the same sort of thing to happen on Saturday, not to mention keeping an eye on Friday as they may have it dryer than normal in anticipation of Saturday rain.

And if they do get rain Saturday, if it comes early the track may be a slower, drying out surface by Derby time.  No matter how you slice it, I think there is an extremely high possibility that the track is not nearly as speed favoring as it was in Cali for the SA Derby, and when you look at how the track was when GC finished 4th the race before and his running style/pace stats, this spells doom for this horse.

[Silver Charm]

Or.certain spots in the Track that could be better than others. There was Derby Trial years back that Alex Hassinger won from far back and Baffert had Straight Man and Wayne had someone similar. They both complained about how dry loose and.cuppy the Track was (rain was being expected) and said had they known they would have Scratched.

Smart Jocks will find the place to be. Like Borel has.done.

[toppled]

I\'ve looked at 4 different speed numbers-Thoro-Graph, Ragozin, Beyer & BRIS and I\'m amazed at the differences in the Florida & Santa Anita Derbies that the 2 sheet producers have come up with versus the 2 Past Performance producers. The PPs say the SA Derby was the fastest winning prep race.  Both sheets have it middle of the pack.  Meanwhile Orb\'s Florida Derby looks mediocre on Beyer figure & even more mediocre on the usually higher BRIS (both are 97) but is clearly the fastest winning final prep figure on both sheets.  Also BRIS is out on an island rating Revolutionary\'s LAD at 105 while Beyer is at 93.  Both sheets are more in line with Beyer on the LAD.
Overall, I\'m going to trust Thoro-Graph the most.  I\'m hoping that I can properly interpret the patterns with help from the Thoro-Patterns.  If I\'m interpreting them correctly, Orb has a great shot while Verrazano has a significantly lower probability of being able to have a winning race.

[TreadHead]

I\'m sure TGJB will cover this in the seminar, but you need to remember that those thoro-patterns are overly genericized and an attempt at one-size-fits-all, which isn\'t always the case.  There are top-off-offs and there are top-off-offs, each can tell a very different story.  The fact that his most recent \"off\" was actually a forward move and a race where he very likely was not fully extended/cranked up would hint that a return to top is much more possible than the normal top-off-off pattern would indicate.  Certainly much more favorable than an off-off where the numbers are the same or continuing to move backwards.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,
t let
Agree with you on Goldencents in that he did visually seem to run the best last prep and he certainly had by far the best early pace figures in that race, of any other top prep.

On this board, he looks like slow, but let\'s not start on the slow TG figures in California routine.

Tread,

It stretches the imagination to watch the Santa Anita Derby and the Arkansas Derby, look at the final times, look at the times of the other races that day, and conclude Overyanalyze is faster than Goldencents.  (and yes, I know TGJB made the figures, you didn\'t, but it doesn\'t seem feasible to me, at all.  Agree with you on the track at Churchill.  If the track stays like it was last night, then a Giacomo type can win.  A slow, grinder.  No excuses for the weather.  Yes, by the end of the night, that was an excuse, but the track was dead from race 1 onwards, and with Pletcher talking the previous day about the dead rail and keeping workders away from it.

[Fairmount1]

These are crazy thoughts but....

1.  Any chance that Vyjack is forwardly placed to the extent he is unexpectedly in the top 2 heading down the backside?  His running style has varied a bit.  I\'m really interested to hear JB\'s seminar thoughts on this one given his last two figs.  Watching last year\'s seminar really raised a lot of points I hadn\'t considered looking at this year\'s figs.  I\'d recommend it for anyone that has already purchased the Derby/Oaks sheets....bet it gives you strong clues about JB\'s thoughts on this year\'s entrants especially Vyjack.

2.  Any chance that Will Take Charge who in my mind is schizophrenic with his running style goes right to the front rather than Oxbow?  His Springboard Mile is worth a watch if you think this isn\'t a possibility.  

I don\'t envision either as likely but I do think either is possible.  Others\' thoughts on these two?

[phil23]

Vyjack is the only entrant that matches the exact pattern that has been the most successful. The obvious concern is the mucas/anti biotics treatment following the Wood. Not as close to the race as Smooth Air\'s (alas alas...150:1...alas) but same type of issue.

[toppled]

Goldencents got the faster TG figure, just but not by much and much different than Beyer or BRIS. There was one figure maker who had Overanalyze faster, but it wasn\'t Jerry.

[alm]

Why not start on the slow TG figures in California?  Was last year an anomaly in your opinion?

The big dilemma with Goldencents, from my point of view, is trying to decide whether or not he will bounce off his big last number.  Most likely he will bounce, but he\'s a contender if he doesn\'t.