Alm-- Okay, now I have some time.
The BRIS figures, like the Equibase figures, are automated, using pars and averages. They are not professional figures-- they are add-ons for a company that makes its money other ways (mostly pedigrees), and when dealing with handicappers is dealing with a much less sophisticated and smaller betting segment of the market (in general, and meaning bets less money, not a comment about you). It\'s not hard to create a program that can make grossly accurate speed figures, but that\'s all it does, aside from the issues of wind, ground and weight that differentiate speed from performance figures.
I\'m not sure what you are asking about DOJ. We are doing more computer checks circuit to circuit (the right time to use averages, large sample studies), but that had nothing to do with DOJ\'s figure.
If you are asking me have we always use the \"projection\" method (a terrible name Crist came up with that confuses everyone and makes them think we simply assign numbers we want to give out)-- yes. When you set up your data base to start you use pars because you have nothing else to work with, and develop a crude data base to work with that way, of figures for each horse. At that point you throw the pars away-- you don\'t use the average 10 claimer, you use the horses in THIS 10 claimer, who can be faster or slower than average. That\'s all the projection method is.
An example of why you don\'t use them can be found in Beyer\'s figures for SoCal, and probably BRIS as well, since evidently they have that circuit too fast as well. A 25 claimer (or any claimer) in SoCal is far softer than average-- the fields are smaller, made up mostly of Cal breds, and people out there have a lot of money so 25k is nothing. Claiming prices there are greatly inflated. This can happen in NY too, but a) there are a lot of feeder tracks, which doesn\'t happen in SoCal due to geography, and b) unfortunately there are a lot more drugs being used here, making those races tougher to win, and forcing people down in class. Beyer said (correctly) at the 2004 DRF Expo that it is wrong to use pars-- but in talking to one of the guys who makes figures for them it became clear they do anyway.
If you use those pars it will not just affect the claiming races, but all the other figures for the day, including stakes, since all the figures are based on a variant that is based on the claimers.
Another problem with pars is it makes figures useless for historical comparisons. If you use 10 for par for a 10 claimer, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy-- pars make you pull figures to par, by definition. If horses are getting faster (or slower) over time you can\'t see it.
