DB,
great post
totally agree on the other stuff distrating from the Derby
I know it\'s an important topic but maybe it can wait until after the Derby?
In terms of the pace, the interesting thing about this years Derby is that there aren\'t alot of speed horses and all of the horses that would otherwise be near the
lead all have distance questions to varying degrees.
I honestly don\'t think anyone really wants the lead as everyone is going to be looking to sit off everyone else and get \"carried\" by the front runner for awhile. There\'s the scenario where we have one of the slowest paces we have seen in a while.
The way Lucky is training (53 for a half? I mean, I know its Calder and not Santa Anita but I don\'t see how a grade 1 horse gets any fitness out of a 53 half) and Goldencents (same comments re: lucky for a 116 3/4). Both of those horses are looking to take back at least a bit. Verazaano can place himself whereever he wants and he showed both in the TB Derby and relazing on a very easy lead in the Wood that he can relax. I know we would rather not have the lead and do all of the dirty work with FS like we have in our last 3 races. Its possible Oxbox winds up on the lead after the failed experiment where he took back last time.
Maybe the crafty G. Stevens tries to sneak away. The problem is that the second anyone does that, the most naturally talented (note I didn\'t say best) horse in the race, Verazzano, will then sit off the flank of anyone who tries to sneak away and no one wants that monster breathing down their neck for the first mile of the race (he\'s at least 16.2 hands by the way if not bigger).
Also, none of this even contemplates the possibility that one or more of the \"speed\" horses doesn\'t break well or gets bumped out of position early on.
Finally, for what it\'s worth, just like in the slow paced Fla Derby, Orb won\'t be that far back. He\'s got more tactical speed than one might think which is something I know Miff has accurately pointed out on the board.