A Few Thoughts with 1 Week To Go

[Dana666]

I see a few contenders being heads and shoulders above a lot of shaky pretenders.

Regarding prep races, I thought the Wood and Fla Derby were very strong.

I thought the SA Derby, Ark. Derby and La. Derby were very weak; though Overanalyze did look good trouncing a pathetic bunch in Ark. I would love to see Goldencents take as much money as possible because I think he has no shot whatsoever.

The Blue Grass is always weird being on poly, but at least you know the winner Java can stay the trip.

Verrazano has no visible flaws, but Pletcher has fooled me before on big days. I\'d take it as a big positive that he has kept the horse on track at CD in full public view.

Joel Rosario riding Orb is to me the story of the lead ups. Rosario\'s and Orb\'s ability to finish is downright scary, and I love that he beat a fast sheet horse in the Fla Derby and made it look so easy late. The spacing to me seems good as well. He could just explode on Derby day, and if he runs a new top, it\'s all over but the shouting. Rosario has become the best rider in the country since he moved east. He always had talent, but now he doesn\'t make the stupid mental errors he used to in California. The kid is just unreal.

I also think I\'ll like the line on Normandy Invasion when I see it because I think he still has room to improve, but the big downside for me regarding him is he\'s only won 1 race! How much of a negative is that? How many Derby winners had won just 1 race? Can\'t be too many.

As I said, Overanalyze did look great, but was he running away from a weak bunch or just getting good? I\'m not terribly impressed with anyone else. I don\'t think Vyjack wants to go this far either. Interestingly Baffert seems a complete non-factor. I can\'t remember the last time that happened. Is there only 1 California horse in the race??? That tells you something.

This week will go fast! Good luck to all.

[toppled]

If Orb pairs he probably wins. The Thoro-Pattern says he has a 63% chance of pairing or going forward.  Looks like he\'ll be the favorite, but I\'m hoping those low Beyers & BRIS numbers keep his odds a little higher than I expect.  I won\'t quote the numbers since Jerry didn\'t put Verrazano\'s sheet on the board like he did with Orb\'s, but Verrazano has the worst Thoro-Pattern among the touted horses & the 2nd worst in the whole race.

[TreadHead]

I\'m still missing why people are bad-mouthing the LA Derby, or Risen Star for that matter.  Normandy Invasion clearly vindicated himself and flattered some of the competition in the Risen Star, from which Oxbow came back and ran another good figure which nearly won him his next out.

The trouble horses in the LA Derby have all run back (shame on me for not taking up Jimbo on his offer for increased odds on these) and resulted in an Ill Derby win, a very narrow second in the Bluegrass, and the only one who didn\'t run great was Sunbean, where I would argue synth might not be his game and I can\'t wait to see him actually run back on dirt.

We\'ll see what happens next week, but certainly compared to the rest of the Ark horses or anything left standing from Cali, Louisiana is nothing to bad-mouth.

And of course, all of this may be out the window if these rain forecasts hold and we are stuck figuring out who will be the next MineThatBird who can run in a track the consistency of mashed potatoes, superglue, and pudding.

[Tavasco]

Black Onyx  hmm ? price

[TGJB]

Okay, to this and others-- before it goes too far, this is a Thoro-Graph site. Discussions can also consider other types of elements that can affect performance (physicality, stamina etc.), but let\'s keep other types of handicapping on other more general boards. It\'s going to be crowded here this week.

[RICH]

Lets say that 63% is what you figure, if so, probably gives him 25-30% chance to win, fair odds ~ 6 or 7-1. There may be a couple others with better value, but in my opinion, there are only 4-5 that offer a good betting opportunity at the right price. I think this race is easy to narrow down to 4-5 possible at this point before post positions

[vp612]

I will say this,there are 8 to 10 horses in this derby that can make a forward move and win this thing,The problem is that a lot of them are lightly raced and the \"explosion forward\'\' can come at any time.I will be looking for a price for sure.

[RICH]

Absoulutely true, some patterns are very positive although slower, some need 3-5 pts jump ups, I agree. But we still need to weigh that vs odds. For example, MYLUTE has a nice line, needs 3-5 pt move, what do you do with him, I like him somewhere in there, hows he look on rags, vito?

[vp612]

Pretty dam good.

[RICH]

thanks Pal, and welcome to the board

[vp612]

Thank you.

[Dana666]

I was referring to sheets, Jerry. I liked that Orb beat a horse who ran a negative number previously. The colt who was 2nd in the Fla derby, hadn\'t he previous to that race run about the fastest # for any 3 year old colt or close to it? That\'s why I thought it was a strong race.

To the others, I thought the La derby was weak, not the Risen Star, although either is stronger than any California race. I don\'t see MyLute as a distance type, plus his trainer is noted for super feats at his home track and CD on Derby day might be another story. Anyway. . .

[TGJB]

No problem with any of those comments.