Itsmyluckyday

[pres711]

I would be interested in thoughts on this largely overlooked contender.  Has a fast two-year old number and the most foundation of any starter.  His sire has a high speed increase on TG from 2to3year numbers and he has ad 14 weeks since the fastest number by a starter this year, enough to overcome the \"negative number before june 1 threeyear old problem\"?  That two year old foundation makes me think that he may be able to overcome the history.  Has won in the slop and traveled well (mostly).  At 15-1, I think he is the value play, will spread with him in exotics.

[badride123]

I think Itsmyluckyday is probably one of the top 3 horses talent wise in the field, unfortunately I think he may have some distance issues, and his rider certainly doesn\'t help that cause.  Still the Derby is probably going to be devoid of speed this year because of all the precocious speedy horses not being eligible.  We may get a strange pace scenario, and if that\'s the case, based on how he draws, he may hang around for a a bigger piece than his price would indicate.    Cant completely discount him, hes never done anything wrong and he has some fight

[Fairmount1]

I\'m really shocked that a poster named Badride1 registered at 8 am this morning and was banished around 2 pm. Then, coincidentally a poster named badride123 registers at 4 pm today.  

I\'d set the morning line at 2-5 this could be the same exact person.  Wow, real cool....but this badride posts a constructive remark.  

I\'d rather see miff posting again.  I valued his posts and yet I feel like my discussions with him and sighthound are part of why he quit posting.  That was not my intent as I really believe serious debates can shed light on issues and help solve issues, like JB trying to get information on testing for the Oaks/Derby.  Still, Sighthound was refusing to acknowledge some pretty obvious facts.    

Nonetheless, I would enjoy seeing miff reappear and all badride\'s disappear--who knows tomorrow just might be my lucky day......

[badride123]

1/9  

Walkover

Im currently reading all the threads and betting Charlestown.  You need a push on something?

[richiebee]

Until this morning, I had been wondering where Rebecca Maker went...

With regards to IMLD, an interesting TG paradox. Very strong numbers, but the
ancillary data (sire stats, thoro pattern, trainer stats) seems kind of neutral.
Agree with Pres that the extensive 2YO activity might balance out the relative
lack of 3YO activity.

To tie this Derby conversation into the important topic of the day, IMLD is a son of Lawyer Ron. Lawyer Ron was trained by the late Bob Holthus with some decent success. Lawyer Ron ended up with TAP and ran a very fast 9 furlong Whitney up at the Spa, 1:46 and change, proving that some trainers\' Hay/Oats/Water might be better than others. (I\'m just having some fun with Rebecca/Badride here; my memory is that TAP had Lawyer Ron for a little while before LR\'s tour de force Whitney). Lawyer Ron\'s sire, Langfuhr, was pretty much a 7 furlong specialist as I recall.

To repeat myself from another thread, ILMD will have an interesting ratio of high
odds (15/1?) and low TG #s, making him a must include in my multiple race wager
Derby herd.

[phil23]

Richie- great summary and think your last sentence is really spot on for what it boils down to. At 15:1 I almost (almost) think he could even be described as a key. Twice the price of Norm, 3 times that of Orb. Could it be the prelude to a 0/2/X? Sure it could. But healthy, developing 3yo\'s also get back to their tops a lot after one not even that bad race.

[TGJB]

Just to be clear, I didn\'t ban Miff. I have enough blood pressure medicine to have him on the site.

I did have Paul block the other guy but right now he\'s keeping his nose clean and reading the strings is a step in the right direction. He\'s on double secret probation.

Derby week is nuts. There\'s a martini screaming my name.

[alm]

IMHO this horse\'s best race was the one turn Gulfstream Park Derby; he took the Holy Bull around two turns in much slower time, beating a distance challenged champion.  Basically won that race off a bounce and then confirmed that bounce in the FL Derby.  He has trained like a mule.  Is he ready to run a much bigger number than his last two races, which he will need in order to beat a solid group?  You can make the bet at the odds, because they will be good, but I don\'t think he is the ONE.

[jimbo66]

Alm,

You must be quoting those home made figures of yours again.  And you also have a better eye than Welsch.

He certainly did NOT bounce two races back.  That race was likely faster than any race of any horse that you like.  (doesn\'t mean he can do it at 1 1/4 though).

And Welsch has him working fine.

[Dark Bay]

The FLA derby was too bad to forgive.    Orb & IMLD are comfortable tosses for me.

[phil23]

Too bad to forgive? He lost by just 2.75 lengths.

[Dark Bay]

I\'m tossing the entire field.

[TGJB]

That\'s nice to know.

Do you know where you are? Are you under the impression this is some generic racing site with $2 bettors? If you have comments that are about figures (not even necessarily ours), or some other sophisticated angle (works? pedigree? physicality?), expound. If not you should be reading here, not writing.

Next thing you know Ken Sherman will be posting here. Briefly.

[Dark Bay]

No need to be insulting JB.   Let me explain my reason for tossing he entire FLD field:

I can forgive the FL Derby\'s slow early pace and its effect on the slow final time but if I\'m forgiving the slow final time,  I would expect a pretty snappy final 3/8s.  Forget about Dreaming of Julia\'s freak performance,  want to see my Derby pick run a faster final 3/8s that Ciao Bella.

[TGJB]

See? How hard was that.

Which is not to say I agree. And boy are you undervaluing Ciao Bella\'s race.

The filly that ran second to her that day comes back Fri at CD, will be interesting to see what she does for a lot of reasons.