Meanwhile...

[TreadHead]

I see what you are saying Richie, and maybe you are right that we are about to see a TC run from a horse with more foundation than any of the previous ones we\'ve had the last decade or so.

But I do fail to see the relevance of looking at any of the horses from 20+ years ago, unless you are telling me that the conversion for those older figures is so much that Easy Goer had actually run negative numbers prior to and in the Derby (in defeat).  I\'m not in a position one way or another to argue this (I don\'t see his sheet in the archives anywhere, I\'m a frequent visitor to that page), but even if it WERE true, I\'d be of the opinion that it had more to do with the horse that the fact that Shug is handling him.

Maybe foundation was the reason he was able to run two -2s instead of Verrazano only being able to run one, and there is certainly historical precedent for him to be able to run a third (or something close to 0) in the Preakness.  If he does, he would have to be some kind of special horse to win the Belmont, because there look to be some pretty formidable shooters lined up for that one in terms of number power, it would take another negative in the Belmont I would think.  

Not saying it can\'t be done, just that it\'s unprecedented in my generation (40).  Guess we will see what happens.  Right now my money is on victory in the Preakness and a bounce in the Belmont enough to not allow him to win, but hopefully nothing as pathetic as Big Brown was.

[TGJB]

Speaking for at least some of us, we\'re not haters, we\'re realists.

Re the conversation you and Richie had about foundation, see my Vrrazano seminar comments about not running at two and making the Derby.

If he does make it back this summer he may well be tough, but that\'s a whole different thing than handicapping the Derby.

[vp612]

I don\'t want to rain on anyone\'s parade but if this horse has had the development that I believe he has,then a bounce is coming in 2 weeks.It can be 2 points,it can be 4 or 5 but it is coming.Horses just don\'t  keep going forward and the pair up of a very fast number is the telltale sign.Anyway that\'s one man\'s opinion.

[magicnight]

JB, didn\'t Easy Goer run a hole in the wind in a prep? I\'m thinking the Gotham in late March, because I seem to remember something like a 1:33 mile. If you have it handy, how did that race compare to his 3 TC races?

[TGJB]

The only stuff that\'s in the system is 92 on, when we \"computarized\". We recreated some earlier Derby winners manually. EG and everything else from the 80\'s is in boxes in storage, if you want to go wading around in there we\'ll be glad to give you a key. I\'ve never been there but I\'m thinking the storage facility from Silence Of The Lambs.

From memory, EG\'s Wood was a big disputed figure. I split the one and two turn races and gave him a zero (I think), very big for a 3yo back then.

[vp612]

That time was aided by one of those drying out wet tracks where anyone runs 108.

[magicnight]

As inviting as you make it sound I think I\'ll try my own archives first, this weekend.

[purplemike]

you did give EG a 0 in the wood

[richiebee]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I see what you are saying Richie, and maybe you
> are right that we are about to see a TC run from a
> horse with more foundation than any of the
> previous ones we\'ve had the last decade or so.
>
> But I do fail to see the relevance of looking at
> any of the horses from 20+ years ago, unless you
> are telling me that the conversion for those older
> figures is so much that Easy Goer had actually run
> negative numbers prior to and in the Derby (in
> defeat).  I\'m not in a position one way or another
> to argue this (I don\'t see his sheet in the
> archives anywhere, I\'m a frequent visitor to that
> page), but even if it WERE true, I\'d be of the
> opinion that it had more to do with the horse that
> the fact that Shug is handling him.
>
> Maybe foundation was the reason he was able to run
> two -2s instead of Verrazano only being able to
> run one, and there is certainly historical
> precedent for him to be able to run a third (or
> something close to 0) in the Preakness.  If he
> does, he would have to be some kind of special
> horse to win the Belmont, because there look to be
> some pretty formidable shooters lined up for that
> one in terms of number power, it would take
> another negative in the Belmont I would think.  
>
> Not saying it can\'t be done, just that it\'s
> unprecedented in my generation (40).  Guess we
> will see what happens.  Right now my money is on
> victory in the Preakness and a bounce in the
> Belmont enough to not allow him to win, but
> hopefully nothing as pathetic as Big Brown was.

Tread: I will take advantage of what you seem to be portraying as a generation
gap. Respect your elder (me) and complete the following brief homework assignment:
Research Spectacular Bid\'s race record. 9 starts at 2, 7 wins, 2 track records. At
3, he prepped for the Triple Crown series by winning 5 stakes races (Hutcheson,
Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby, Flamingo, Blue Grass). He then won Derby and
Preakness, injured himself in the Belmont. Two months after the Belmont, he set a
track record at Delaware at 1-1/16th; later in the Fall he set a track record at
the Meadowlands. As a 4YO he went on to have what to me was the greatest single
year of any horse in my nearly 40 years of following Racing; I\'ll let you read
about it.

Is Orb Spectacular Bid?  Nyet, Comrade.

Maybe a better comparison from what you call \"your\" generation might be Smarty
Jones, whose sheet is available in the Archive. SJ was a late starter, running in
2 sprints as a 2YO, both in November, not much foundation there. SJ began his 3YO
campaign on AQ\'s innercourse, winning a small stake, earning a TG # of
0². Sent to Hot Springs for Oaklawn\'s Ky Derby prep series, Smarty
reeled off TG #s of 0, -3³, and -1³.

Smarty paired his Ark Derby - 1³ at Churchill in the Derby. If I am
reading you correctly, you are telling me that Orb is an iffy proposition to go
forward off his pair of (negative) deuces in the Fla Derby and the Ky Derby.

The second part of homework assignment is to visit the archive and see how Smarty
performed TG wise in the Preakness.

This is all a bit of a moot point, because I have it on information and belief
that Shug, Stuart Janney and Dinny Phipps all read the TG board and are at this
moment engineering a slight regression in the Preakness to increase the chances of
Orb being Triple Crowned on Belmont Day.

[FrankD.]

Uncle Richie,

Please tell us another story; one before the internet and cell phone were invented please!!!!!!!!!

LMAO

Another avuncular moment for my cellmate.

[Topcat]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Speaking for at least some of us, we\'re not
> haters, we\'re realists.
>
> Re the conversation you and Richie had about
> foundation, see my Vrrazano seminar comments about
> not running at two and making the Derby.
>
> If he does make it back this summer he may well be
> tough, but that\'s a whole different thing than
> handicapping the Derby.


Prelimary target is Haskell, so we\'ll see how that goes . . .

[vp612]

I don\'t think it is a question of foundation,I think it is a question of development and  ORB has developed quite a bit in the short term.He is going to bounce next time out(at least he is supposed to).The 2 weeks is certainly not going to help him.Could he go forward  again?Sure he could,anything is possible, but he is not supposed to.AS far as bouncing and winning,I am not in that club.

[Topcat]

vp612 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think it is a question of foundation,I
> think it is a question of development and  ORB has
> developed quite a bit in the short term.He is
> going to bounce next time out(at least he is
> supposed to).The 2 weeks is certainly not going to
> help him.Could he go forward  again?Sure he
> could,anything is possible, but he is not supposed
> to.AS far as bouncing and winning,I am not in that
> club.


. . . not to mention how much he might be stinging after pounding over that that paved-road portion of the CD main . . . not looking to toss him, but not sold  he\'ll be worthwhile @ 4-5.

[FrankD.]

Vito,

Agreed that 9 times out of 10 I\'m betting bounce and as another longtime sheet user regardless of the brand;( I used Rags quite a bit in the 80\'s) overall its a winning proposition. We are out to beat a short priced horse and by patterns, speculation and odds we do not have to be correct all the time to profit. Especially betting into pick 3\'s or 4\'s using multiple horses and the take out divided by 3 or 4. IMHO it\'s one of the few advantages we as players have in this game.

I think Richie\'s point is as much Shug related as it is old school 2 yr old foundation related. He doesn\'t rush his horses, let\'s them develop, used appropriate spacing coming into the Derby. What is wrong with a healthy developing 3 yr old going forward off of pairs? IMHO again he doesn\'t need to go forward, could regress slightly and still win. Does that mean I won\'t try to beat him? Hell no!!!!!!

If you look back to a post I made the day after the Fountain of Youth; I stated that Violence and Orb were the only 2 that looked the part of contender on the first Saturday in May. In addition that under Shug\'s careful handling he would bring him there ready to fire his best shot.

There isn\'t a whole lot to scare me off in the Preakness as of yet. Itsmyluckyday I\'ll give a non effort to in the Derby and Departing is a bit intersting.
We will see?

Good luck,

Frank D.

[vp612]

It is not a question of going forward off pairs but it is my opinion he developed a lot BEFORE he got to the pairs and this last one could be the end of the road for now.I don\'t know the TG numbers but let\'s say they are 8,4,-2.-2, no matter how you look at it that is 8-10 points development.What about Bafferts horse if he is healthy?