Oaks #

[Silver Charm]

Will be curious to see it.

Frank D can confirm we had a phone conversation I believe on Thursday where I said I think a 2 can take this race. Perhaps perposterous to some when looking at the -8 for Julia, the 0 and 1 for Midnite and the 0 for Budget. But each had a knock on them being: an isolated top with a prior top of 2, achieved in a Sprint and at Sunland Downs, and a 4 point forward move to the 0 looked like a candidate for at least a 2 pt bounce.

Did I make any money on this. NO!!! Was losing for the day. Had been wiped out pretty good after War Dance ran a solid 3rd, but not a win or runnerup. And just decided tomorrow was another day so wait. And glad I did.

[jimbo66]

Silver,

Likely a good call by you on the \"2\".  Will be very surprised if TGJB gives out big numbers on the Oaks.

Watched the replays a number of times.  Many \"fast\" horses were downright awful.  Baffert filly horrible, with no excuse (other than the dam side pedigree).  The \"other\" pletcher, had a beautiful trip and could not even get by the distance challenged Beholder.  All the talk from the workout guys on Close Hatches was just bullshit.  She was empty all the way around the track (don\'t care if she gets an OK figure with ground loss, as she was clearly never running well).

As for Julia, she had a rough trip.  It is at least somewhat debatable as to whether you want to call it running poorly or at least medicre, even when factoring in the trip.  I will go with that she ran very medicre, but might have managed a \"default win\" if she didn\'t have trouble.  (\"defaut\" because many other fast wins were downright awful)

The question will be what to do with any of these coming out of the race.  Hard to see clear bet backs for me. At least besides the uber-obvious, like the Baffert sprinting or Julia.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I\'m not done with the day yet, but a few things:

First of all, someone with a good opinion told me DOJ had lost weight since the big effort, which is really no surprise-- \"looked light\".

Second, looks like there was a dead rail, Authenticity notwithstanding (looks like she won going back a couple).

Third, different testing always raises questions.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

I am sorry, but this testing discussion is really starting to feel a bit like Don Quixote and windmills.  

I am 100% in agreement there is a problem and many trainers are getting away with things. (not that my agreement matters to anybody, but me)

But when you start saying on Friday at the Oaks, they did this, this and this, but on Saturday, they added an additional barn surveillance on top of it, hinting that the results between the two days can be different because of it, it really sounds conspiratorial.

Were you really surprised by Pletcher\'s results in the Derby?  The whole world, except my friend Treadhead, figured Verrazano to go backward, Revolutionary was OK, Palace Malice got a stupid ride, the Kitten horse didn\'t belong, Overanalyze had a ground loss loaded figure in Arkansas, but had questions (why so long between races and then only 3 weeks into the Derby).  

Julia bounced a ton in the Oaks and when every other fast horse seemingly didn\'t fire, a horse that ran decent last time out, grinded out a win at long odds.  I didn\'t have her, but she was not impossible.  If you liked Close Hatches, you could not hate Princess Sylmar.  They ran together the previous race and Close Hatches had a pace and bias advantage in her favor and was life and death till late in the stretch.

Authenticity looked very good on thorograph and ran to it.    

I don\'t see \"testing methods\" between Friday and Saturday as the difference between the Pletcher performances.

[TGJB]

I\'m not saying anything (yet) other than it has to be kept in mind. Haven\'t even looked at Saturday.

And you\'re focusing on the difference between Fri and Sat, there are other differences, and other trainers.

Right now drawing no conclusions.

[Fairmount1]

I believe on Friday the track changed between races 4 and 6 on the dirt in some way that had to result in a split variant.  

Jimbo I think was the one person who responded to my pletcher query asking who of his five weren\'t good enough BEFORE THE RACE (FEW did) and I believe said possibly none of them hit the board--courageous and nearly correct call since no else said a thing really.    

The Oaks was the fastest pace of the weekend excepting the Derby and Princess closed into it with Beholder running a heck of a race on the front end.  I\'m not sure how wide (or not wide) Princess was at this moment but I think she probably paired her last like suggested by SC.  

Besides an owner that had a heck of a weekend with three trainers winning races for him at Churhill, there were two trainers that I think had several move-ups on the weekend at some point, some at big odds.  Both of the trainers didn\'t fare well at all in the big race.....

Authenticity got a slow pace compared to others on the day (slowest half mile in five routes on the day).

I was dead wrong about Bashaar who appeared to make a bold move in the turn but had no turn of foot in the lane.  My opinions overall in Louisville were fair, my betting was horrible, and not being able to see a television with fractions regularly made it very difficult to make faster, astute observations on track.  I love the Derby experience but the inability to truly delve into the numbers and study thoughtfully with the crowd is always tough for me to balance even when I\'ve studied for days leading up to it.  

Many comments post-derby about the recent posts on the board for the run-up to the Derby suggested the forum needs cleaning up.  I know I recently began posting and am hopeful I have not offended longtime and new posters and users on the forum.