Normandy to Invade Baltimore. Or Not.

[richiebee]

On the morning after the Ky Derby, trainer Chad Brown seemed to unequivocally rule
out Normandy Invasion running in the Preakness. 24 hours later, on Monday morning,
it seemed as if there was at least a possibility that NI would be a Preakness
participant.

Possible reasons for this 24 hour turnaround:

A) NI came out of the race \"barely blowing\" while cooling out, \"bouncing off the
walls\" after being returned to his stall, and ate \"every morsel in his feed tub\"
the night after the Derby.

B) There are no NW2LT allowance races for him to run in in the near future.

C) He can not possibly get a more poorly judged ride than he got in Louisville.

D) Chad Brown got a call from owner Rick Porter sometime Sunday night which
followed the lines of \"What do you mean we\'re not running in the Preakness\" or
\"We\'re running in the Preakness, aren\'t we?\"

All of the above might be true to some extent, but I think the real reason for the
turnaround is (bells ringing) SURVEY SAYS: \"D\" the owner and not the trainer wants
to run the colt in the Preakness.

Rick Porter has a Derby/Triple Crown jones and there is a pun intended there. In
2004, when Porter had his top 2YO prospect Rockport Harbor at Philly Park with
trainer John Servis, Servis nearly captured the Triple Crown with Smarty Jones. So
here you have Porter, spending literally millions at auction, and he watches
Smarty Jones, bred and raised by his owners on a small Pennsylvania farm, win
2/3rds of the Triple Crown.

I have been critical of Porter on this board with his handling of Rockport Harbor.
Early in his 3YO year, while stabled at Oaklawn with trainer Servis in preparation
for the Derby, RH had hoof issues. It looked like stopping on the big grey may
have been the right thing to do, but instead they tried to rush preparations, all
for the sake of making the Derby. The end result was that Rockport Harbor, who won
two graded stakes races at Aqueduct as a 2YO, did not stay sound, and only started
4 more times in his career, running second in the Rebel at OP as a 3YO and winning
the Essex there as a 4YO.

Porter had better luck with Hard Spun, a 3YO of 2007, who competed in all three
legs of the Triple Crown, finishing second in Kentucky, third in Baltimore and
fourth at Elmont, all while many experts were opining that HS was either a
sprinter or a turf horse. HS finished his 3YO season by running second in the BC
Classic, with a stop along the way to take the 7 furlong Kings Bishop at the Spa,
a victory which led to him being named champion sprinter of 2007.

In 2008, Porter had the worst kind of Derby luck imaginable. Strange that this man
who seems to have Triple Crown fever has had his best success with older mares --
Round Pond, Jostle, Havre de Grace, etc.

So what to do with Normandy Invasion, whose trainer\'s immediate reaction to the
Derby result was to rule out the Preakness, but whose owner has been bitten by the
same bug which seems to have bitten Baffert and Zito and Pletcher and Lukas (whose
Derby also rans will probably also run at Baltimore and at Belmont)?

[big18741]

Final Answer-D

[jbelfior]

Nice colt but personally would not bet a nickle on him past 1 1/8th.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Eight Belles]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On the morning after the Ky Derby, trainer Chad
> Brown seemed to unequivocally rule
> out Normandy Invasion running in the Preakness. 24
> hours later, on Monday morning,
> it seemed as if there was at least a possibility
> that NI would be a Preakness
> participant.
>
> Possible reasons for this 24 hour turnaround:
>
> A) NI came out of the race \"barely blowing\" while
> cooling out, \"bouncing off the
> walls\" after being returned to his stall, and ate
> \"every morsel in his feed tub\"
> the night after the Derby.
>
> B) There are no NW2LT allowance races for him to
> run in in the near future.
>
> C) He can not possibly get a more poorly judged
> ride than he got in Louisville.
>
> D) Chad Brown got a call from owner Rick Porter
> sometime Sunday night which
> followed the lines of \"What do you mean we\'re not
> running in the Preakness\" or
> \"We\'re running in the Preakness, aren\'t we?\"
>
> All of the above might be true to some extent, but
> I think the real reason for the
> turnaround is (bells ringing) SURVEY SAYS: \"D\" the
> owner and not the trainer wants
> to run the colt in the Preakness.
>
> Rick Porter has a Derby/Triple Crown jones and
> there is a pun intended there. In
> 2004, when Porter had his top 2YO prospect
> Rockport Harbor at Philly Park with
> trainer John Servis, Servis nearly captured the
> Triple Crown with Smarty Jones. So
> here you have Porter, spending literally millions
> at auction, and he watches
> Smarty Jones, bred and raised by his owners on a
> small Pennsylvania farm, win
> 2/3rds of the Triple Crown.
>
> I have been critical of Porter on this board with
> his handling of Rockport Harbor.
> Early in his 3YO year, while stabled at Oaklawn
> with trainer Servis in preparation
> for the Derby, RH had hoof issues. It looked like
> stopping on the big grey may
> have been the right thing to do, but instead they
> tried to rush preparations, all
> for the sake of making the Derby. The end result
> was that Rockport Harbor, who won
> two graded stakes races at Aqueduct as a 2YO, did
> not stay sound, and only started
> 4 more times in his career, running second in the
> Rebel at OP as a 3YO and winning
> the Essex there as a 4YO.
>
> Porter had better luck with Hard Spun, a 3YO of
> 2007, who competed in all three
> legs of the Triple Crown, finishing second in
> Kentucky, third in Baltimore and
> fourth at Elmont, all while many experts were
> opining that HS was either a
> sprinter or a turf horse. HS finished his 3YO
> season by running second in the BC
> Classic, with a stop along the way to take the 7
> furlong Kings Bishop at the Spa,
> a victory which led to him being named champion
> sprinter of 2007.
>
> In 2008, Porter had the worst kind of Derby luck
> imaginable. Strange that this man
> who seems to have Triple Crown fever has had his
> best success with older mares --
> Round Pond, Jostle, Havre de Grace, etc.
>
> So what to do with Normandy Invasion, whose
> trainer\'s immediate reaction to the
> Derby result was to rule out the Preakness, but
> whose owner has been bitten by the
> same bug which seems to have bitten Baffert and
> Zito and Pletcher and Lukas (whose
> Derby also rans will probably also run at
> Baltimore and at Belmont)?

Looks like A was the correct answer.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20130507_Normandy_Invasion_trainer_considering_Preakness.html

[justwin]

if A is the real answer than he certainly needs a look. Didn\'t Baffert say the same with Looking at Lucky. I can\'t recall if he first said no then changed to yes or if he took his time to see how the horse was doing. If Orb does bounce in the Preakness Normandy would have a shot.

[alm]

This is a good horse...he will run well when he\'s had the time that he needs.  Even then, however, he may not be the fastest among these.  The way the Louisiana horses performed it is far more likely that one of them will win the Preakness if Orb stumbles.  And if he doesn\'t bounce, the Claiborne horse may turn out to be the best of them.  As Hermes used to say in the Morning Telegraph, he\'s likely to be fast, fit and dangerous.

[TGJB]

He is/was one of the Louisiana horses.

[alm]

Yes.  He was the slowest of the four top finishers at Fair Grounds.  But it is his race at Hawthorne that is the setup for the Preakness.  I don\'t know what his numbers were there, but they had to be a new top for the horse.  The question will be whether he can pair up or move ahead from the new level or if he will regress.  If he pairs or improves and Orb regresses, he can win.

Meanwhile, that Trakus guy included a comment from Donna Brothers in his analysis...to the effect that the rail was the place to be in the Derby.  That is so counterintuitive to me.  I\'ve been watching sealed tracks at Churchill for decades.  I know it\'s anecdotal evidence, but I can\'t remember the rail being the place to be when the track is draining down the banks, particularly in the turns.

If she looked at it about the time of the race, that\'s one thing.  If she looked at it following a maintenance, that\'s another.  This is relevant, going forward, because Revolutionary either had the easiest trip or the most compromised run.  If the latter, this guy will win the Belmont in a cakewalk.

[gowand]

At one point during the NBC coverage Donna Brothers was standing on the track at the rail discussing the track condition.  The track seemed hard as a rock on the rail where she was standing.  I think a comment was then made that it was still about an hour and a half until post time so that could change.

[TGJB]

The \"Fair Grounds horse\" I was talking about was NI.

It would be hard to look at our Derby figures and say the La Derby, Fla Derby or Wood figures didn\'t hold up.

[TGJB]

Counterintuitive or not, given where the horses who raced inside finished and what figures they ran, it would be really really hard to say they were at a disadvantage.

There have been dead rails at CD (as Jimbo and I have discussed ad nauseum), but I don\'t remember any when the track was wet, could be wrong. Borel won with MTB and SS getting inside trips on wet tracks.

[alm]

My mind\'s eye isn\'t helping me here, but didn\'t most of the dirt races later in the day go to horses circling the field wider than usual?

[chuckb63]

It might sound crazy but I would take a look at the Met Mile.  As a 3YO he would get in light. He broke his maiden at the distance, got back to his top in the Derby and it\'s his third race off the lay off.

[chuckb63]

Sorry, He paired and the Derby was his third off the layoff.  I still think it\'s worth a look.  Or a NW1..

[TGJB]

Sheets for all the 5/4 CD races with the paths can be acessed in the ROTW so you can check that out, but given the Derby second finisher jumped way forward while racing on the rail it would be tough to argue it hurt him.