Normandy to Invade Baltimore. Or Not.

[alm]

Jerry, I know I promised you that I wouldn\'t bring up my \'homemade\' figures again and I am not redboarding in replying to you here, but Golden Soul did not jump up according to my figures.  He actually went into the race with about a 1% better last race number than Orb.  So the way I saw it was that either Orb jumped up over him (most likely) or he had a slight setback himself.

[TGJB]

You have got to be kidding. At least I hope so.

[alm]

Someday we\'ll have a conversation about this.  Golden Soul was not a surprise to me.  Let\'s let it go for now because I can see this is going nowhere.

[TGJB]

Saying he\'s not a surprise to run well and saying he went into the race faster than Orb are two different things.

Adjusted for ground he ran about 8 lengths worse than Orb in the Derby. And since there were other horses out of the La Derby who beat GS handily that day, they must all have been faster than Orb-- and all ran at least 5 lengths worse than Orb in the Derby.

[catcapper]

Golden Soul, a horse for the moment...my take on his second place finish.

As to the numbers, it seems he made his 3yo 3 or 4 point leap in the Derby on track and distance conditions that his breeding suggests he can well handle. He got a great ride by someone who knows that track well on what is panning out to have been a favorable rail. I think the horse was sitting on a race and Dallas Stewart knew it. I think DS was genuinely happy to draw in for his chances, not just because he couldn\'t say no to an owner.
And importantly, for me, I really feel his breeding was up to that distance and those conditions. I felt the same way about Super Saver.I felt he was sitting on his race, CB and the 4 hole also set him up for an easy ride. And,  he was,to me, the best bred horse in the Derby and that his breeding could handle the slop at a mile and a quarter. Hill and Dale has since purchased his damn.

This isn\'t all hindsight, and this, I hope isn\'t redboarding as I think I have come to understand what that means, but I had GS in the exacta with the other three. If I had I my mind all to myself at the time and more available bankroll, I like to think that I would have been smart enough to bet him in a tri and super. I mean if he runs second, he runs third and fourth too.

The point is, now that the dust is starting to settle, Golden Soul can get his look.

I am learning, I want to learn more. Is my thought that he just took his 3yo leap in the Derby off base?

[catcapper]

I forgot to add most importantly, I feel NI really should have run second but for that really really bad ride.
I agree with the earlier comment that Castellano is a very good turf rider but I don\'t think he is as deft on dirt by any means.

[catcapper]

Good Morning Gentleman,
I was restless all night thinking I have violated the redboard room rule about past wagers. Let me qualifiy my exacta statement above.
We\'re talking $2. and 3x that on Orb/NI and Orb/Rev. $2 on the 4 over and under those. I got lucky, but it was a calculated guess. When you bet on that eenie weeenie bankroll level, you can\'t take yourself too seriously. You have to play around and have fun. On any given race card 3 or 4 such bombs can hit the board. If it is a race I was watching and I missed such a horse, I will go back and find out the reason he was there and what I missed. 95% of the time I find a good reason. Only in the really cheap races do I sometimes see not good reason. For instance, for me, looking for such a horse a jockey upgrade is a big deal. GS had Robby A, a Churchill veteran, etc. etc.

Betting $2 exactas, if I want to get anywhere I have to get on a horse that no one else wants. But I have to find a reason. And that is the beauty of parimutuel wagering....I am not \'betting\' against algorithms that are adjusted regularly to maintain casino cash flow levels (I hear the 3rd week of the month usually is the best time to play slots as the algorithms are more in your favor during that part of their monthly cycle), no, I am betting against you and everyone else.  So much of a race\'s outcome is determined by things that are not quantifiable, e.g. an ill-timed move, a favoring rail trip, slop, a good jock for the course, and on and on. I got lucky that day in that race with those intangibles. And that is horseracing. Anything can happen, but there is always a reason. Golden Soul was a bomb, but not a fluke.

[alm]

OK, final comment.

As I saw it those La Derby horses did have a better (homemade by Al) number than Orb and in each case they were regression candidates because the La Derby represented very large new tops for them.  Orb on the other hand had confirmed his own large new top two back with a pair-up in the Florida Derby.

Orb was far more likely to move forward in Kentucky and that\'s the way that I bet him.  The others were not likely to pair up, IMHO.  Golden Soul probably did, however, or he may even have hit a new top in the Derby (just not as big as did Orb.)  The others I am not so sure about, but I believed before the race and still believe that they are competitive with him.

Orb is a very good horse, but he is not a super-effing horse.  If he did what I think that he did in the Derby, a major new top, he will regress from that.  A competitive horse will beat him.  For what it is worth, Departing and Governor Charlie are in that category, but the Governor is very likely not to pair up or hit a new top (without serious help.)  If it is a drug free race, ha, ha, I am looking to Departing for the value play.

[richiebee]

Repetitive redboarding and homegrown speed figures? Even though TAP doesn\'t have
an entrant in the Preakness, maybe its better we go back to talking about Pletcher and Allday? Nurse!

Pre -post your selections, or forever hold your peace.

[catcapper]

Please forgive me. Admonishment taken to heart.  I am new, I am a guest and I want to follow the parameters....I only need one touch of the whip to get it.

Poor little me, my friends and family don\'t get my love of this sport...I like it here, I want to contribute in the right way...

Henceforth, any such talking by me shall be done prior to post time from here on out. Hopefully I can make up for this.

[touchgold]

departing is going to be value?

[TGJB]

Richie, I\'ll bet you feel guilty now, don\'t you.

Cat-- I don\'t know what to say. We never had anyone even understand there was a line before, let alone feel bad for crossing it. And of the offenses committed on this board that doesn\'t crack the top thousand.

[alm]

Adios Amigos....you missed the horse and I\'m the problem.  Right.

[TGJB]

Alm-- I\'ve shown a great deal of forbearance because you\'ve been coming here a long time, and I understand that horseplayers are ego-invested. But you need to develop what a great basketball player/senator/presidential candidate once called a sense of where you are.

There are a LOT of people on this site who have made their own figures, and most of them know a lot more about it than you, since you apparently take BRIS figures seriously (and without even knowing how they are made). Others, like Miff, take the subject seriously enough to look at several serious figure sources, and when he comes here he is coming from factual knowledge (even when he\'s wrong and driving me nuts). When there is debate about figures here it involves critical analysis of the process used to make them, both in general and in the specific, as with the 3/30 GP route figures. I posted all of them so people could understand how DOJ and Orb got the figures they did.

Even if people here were going to take seriously someone\'s homemade figures, they would do it based on the same critical analysis of the process, and the credibility of the one making the figures. (Take it from me-- I took on a monopoly and had to gain credibility. I had a resume, endorsements from horsemen, and an actual name, not just an internet handle. And it still was tough sledding, took years).

This site is read by industry pros and many extremely serious (and in some cases professional) horseplayers. You coming here and making assertions about the accuracy of homemade figures, without evidence or credibility, is not to be taken seriously. And I can guarantee it is not. This is not the place to do it.

[catcapper]

Every classy club, even those accessible to the mere public, have established dress codes. By far and away for the most part,  I find the discussions on this board to be very serious and sincere, and I want to always show my respect. A little etiquette is not too much to ask, indeed it should be expected. Thanks for the pass.

Looking forward now to the Preakness...I can understand why the savvy handicapper/bettor will be looking elsewhere than Orb. Yes, a regression seems in order and if you look hard enough you will find something, but it is way too soon for me to get off of him yet. I\'m  giving it all at least another week to shake down further.