Baffert watch...

[JohnTChance]

Bob Baffert\'s runners have pretty much come up duds at CD so far. In previous years, his horses have had serious forward-moving tendencies upon shipping out of California into Churchill. But not this season:

ZEE BROS: A dull sixth in the Derby Trial. Bet well.
COASTAL BREEZE: third in a turf route
INFLAMED SPIRIT: Seventh (last) in a mile
MIDNIGHT LUCKY: Fifth in the Ky. Oaks; Going into race, very highly touted by clockers I spoke to
CODE WEST: Second in an allowance route; Bet well

It\'ll be interesting to see some of these trainers ship into the safe-haven, wild west veterinary environment of Pimlico. The last 3 Preakness winners I\'LL HAVE ANOTHER, SHACKLEFORD, and Baffert\'s LOOKIN AT LUCKY moved forward from their Derby efforts. [To me, at least two of them seemed eye-raising and \"anti-theory\". Long story deleted.] For example, Baffert\'s LOOKIN AT LUCKY zoomed from a Derby 3.75 to a negative 2 in Baltimore! Yikes.

JTChance

[Rich Curtis]

\"For example, Baffert\'s LOOKIN AT LUCKY zoomed from a Derby 3.75 to a negative 2 in Baltimore! Yikes.\"

Come on, John. Did you see that Derby? And LAL had a fast dirt number before it.

[JohnTChance]

You make a good point. And the issue is certainly arguable.

However, as to whether a performance is too good to be true or not, or \"anti-theory,\" I usually look at it this way: Let\'s get Jerry and the best 100 sheet readers around to provide their opinions. Then let\'s cover up that -2 LOOKING AT LUCKY ran in the Preakness and ask them what performance number they\'d project for the colt that day. I\'d say many would not project a forward move… some of them may optimistically project a return to the 0.75 to match circling back what he ran off the layoff… and that NONE of them (hey... or maybe one of them) would project a forward move to a -2 like that on short rest and hay, oats and water alone. By the way, the LAL sheet is in the TG archives for the 2010 Preakness.

[Rich Curtis]

A better sheet to look at would be LAL later in the year. That\'s there too, for that year\'s BC.

[JohnTChance]

That sheet, created months later, is besides the point.

[covelj70]

I think Gov Charlie is a really really good horse and I think he represents the biggest threat to Orb in the Preakess.

He looked great to me at Churchill and the breeze yesterday was very sharp.

Let\'s see how he looks over the next 10 days but right now, I think he\'s the biggest threat.

[Rich Curtis]

It may be beside your point, John, but I\'m not going to be governed by your point. If I were, I would not have been allowed to point out that LAL\'s Derby was a blatant toss.

[vp612]

Now you\'re talking!!!!!!!

[vp612]

Gov charlie,nice line, fresh horse 15-1 what else do you need.?

[jimbo66]

Jim,

Interesting that you thought he looked well.  I like the horse, but Welsch had him awful leading up to the race, and he has a pretty sharp eye.

If he trains well up to the Preakness, he certainly has a look, at a nice price.

[vp612]

He had him awful because he had a sore hoof.

[JoseOcon]

I like governor Charlie also, I watched him racing at Sunland Park, good impression

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

just to follow up on the good point you made on Gov Charlie.  He was favoring the foot when he first got to Churchill but he was getting better each day and I thought he moved well in his breeze 2 back and then the breeze this week was very zippy.

We have to be a bit careful because the CD surface was rock hard in the few days leading up to the Derby so not exactly ideal to train a horse with a foot bruise on thtat surface but the Baffert horses that make it thorugh his program are very tough and so if he continues to look for the next 9 days how he looked for the last 7 days, I think he will be tough next weekend at a price

Obviously Orb is the one to beat next weekend and you and I have both made it known here for months how we feel about him but there are alot of things that can go wrong in horse racing as we all know and Gov Charlie should be a good price. I was shocked by those odds that Silver posted from the Wynn.  Is a Baffert horse really going to go off at more than 20-1 in the Preakness?

[TGJB]

No, he won\'t. They\'ll bet the horses that didn\'t lose to Orb last time, he\'s one of two.