vp612 Wrote:
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> He didn\'t win the preakness yet, and he doesn\'t
> look overwhelming to me.
Vito, on the numbers here, in recent years, horses who looked like they might be ready to back off their winning Derby effort, particularly on only two weeks rest, didn\'t. Or, if they did, they still ran enough to hit the exacta, and were only knocked out of the top spot by some pretty fair horses. I don\'t see horses of that caliber right now. You have to make excuses for the Derby surface, or the trip, and have them run back to numbers, or even hit a new number. The strangers haven\'t beaten anybody, and while I don\'t know Departing\'s last number, I\'m guessing they\'re going to have to make a significant forward move, at least in terms of class if not figures as well. So, even if Orb doesn\'t look overwhelming, you need someone else to look at least whelming. Impossible? Of course not. That\'s why we\'re all here, looking for that edge against conventional wisdom. But, right now it looks like a confluence of events would have to occur to keep Orb from winning. Personally, I have many more losing tickets than winners based on some shaky \"what ifs\" in hopes of knocking off a 4-5 shot. That\'s why this Saturday, I\'d rather see Orb win by ten, and look for value in a stakes-filled undercard, and then see what the field and numbers look like three weeks later. But, you have to dance with who brung ya\', and I respect that you stick to your guns. There are quite a few sharp trainers who, unless their owners are pointing a gun to their heads, think their horses are telling them they\'re ready, so I\'m guessing they would agree with you.
