ROTW

[TGJB]

Boy, have we got a stat for you guys. Holy crap.

Something we never looked at, I had no idea.

[high roller]

Hey J.B. - I hope it\'s better than the last secret stat you revealed about Smarty Jones prior to the Derby - remember that one? LOL!

[ROBERT49]

Does your stat have anything to do with no lasix as a 2yo?

[TGJB]

Nope.

[Topcat]

The long-term record of Preakness horses who came from 10+-lengths off to win the Derby is not pretty, IIRC . . .

[TGJB]

Seriously? Only one post about that pattern study? Forget the impact re Orb-- THREE new tops by Derby horses with other patterns in 18 Preakness runnings? THREE?!?

[Benton]

This is a really remarkable stat.  Thanks for the research.  You have confirmed my analysis of patterns going in to the Preakness with my lute & itmyluckday.  Itsmyluckyday is such a question mark with an unreal upside that must be used.  Lets see if we can get vertical odds with them & orb!

By the way, this is my first post after over 5 years of using TG data & reading the Experts everyday! Great Job TBJB & crew!

[rhagood]

Your data just backs and confirms why the Preakness is the most form-full race of the 3 and one of the most of any Grade 1 event. Almost no jump-ups and the good form/ paired numbers hold just 2 weeks later.  Once they run 1 1/4 miles, the fitness level is at a peak and the short turnaround actually works in favor of maintaining that peak vs reacting.  Either longer spacing or shorter spacing works well, in between is where is gets tough and thus the triple crown drought. Orb\'s best chance to complete the sweep is another pair, not a blowout win, Followed by a slight reaction to 0 without someone else bettering that.
Take a look at Afleet Alex\'s sheet from 2005.  The numbers were there to sweep but trouble in the 20 horse field tripped him up.  Most have been focusing on those 3rd leg failures but the patterns were not kind at all to the near misses.

[TGJB]

As we\'ve pointed out in Derby seminars, pairing tops is a strong pattern going into the Derby as well, the best in fact. And if it were simply a matter of holding for for two weeks horses that ran a new top in the Derby would do as well in the Preakness-- and as the studies show they don\'t.

[rhagood]

5 of the past 11 Derby winners repeated in the Preakness, with Street Sense losing in the last stride. Of the other 5 non-repeaters all ran new tops in the Derby. Giacamo and Mine That Bird by 4 to 5 points. Animal Kingdom, Barbaro and Super Saver had 3 point jumps and none repeated. Dovetails with your excellent number crunching analysis.

[vp612]

I find it very hard to understand that the last 2 races (being a pair)are what makes Orbs line forward moving.He ran 6 other races and when I look at a horse I look at his whole career.WHere he is now and where he came from(his numbers).To me it as a pattern of development and his last 2 races are a part of it,so I disagree with that notion.

[rhagood]

From Andy Beyer\'s column today:

All handicappers recognize that some horses dislike mud and that bad efforts on off tracks can often be disregarded. Yet it is not common for high-class horses to run as horribly as Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday because they don\'t like a racing surface. Ten times since 1945 the Derby has been run on a track labeled sloppy, muddy, or slow, and the form of the Derby held up remarkably well in the Preakness. Horses who were badly trounced never made a sudden turnaround to win on a fast track at Pimlico.

We shall see if that holds up, albiet 10 races is a limited sample.
I think both may be distance challenged as has been discussed and need optimum comfortable trips to get longer distances. The slop could have been secondary.
The smaller field and sans Palace Malice run off might help in that regard.