We need to be careful about applying statistics to Orb

[covelj70]

Just a few thoughts here before the draw and before JB tries to convince us Orb can be beat

First my disclaimer.  The thorograph sheets are the best figures available anywhere period end of sentence so none of what I am about to say is meant to call into question the figures.

What I will question though is some of the theories that spring up in relation to the figures.  

here\'s the key: EVERY HORSE IS DIFFERENT

applying what has happened to other, lesser horses in the hands of other lesser trainers to Orb is asking for trouble in my opinion.

I thought and posted that this horse was special immediately after the Fountain of Youth (and bet the futures accordingly).

The Floriday Derby only confirmed what I thought after the FOY and the Ky Derby certainly did nothing to move me off of that view that this horse is special.

No statistics or historical analysis applied to lesser horses is going to get me off of the idea that this is a special animal.

The way he breezed this week should scare anyone who plans on betting that he\'s not going to run his race on Saturday and his race is easily good enough against the other 8 that were entered.

Baring something very bizare happening during the running of the race, I don\'t think he can lose on Saturday.  It doesn\'t mean I will play him in the race as the risk/reward just isn\'t there but I think it\'s foolish to bet against him.

Now, none of what I am saying applies to the Belmont.  Running back once on 2 weeks rest is no big deal but running 3 races in 5 weeks could be something completely different.  We will have to see how he trains between the Preakness and the Belmont.

Last time we had a horse this good was Big Brown and it was obvious to anyone who watched Big Brown train during Belmont week that he wasn\'t the same horse that ran in the Derby and Preakness as he was switching leads down the lane in his training which is not something he had ever done before Belmont week.  That\'s why the payouts in the show pools weren\'t what they would have been if he had been training the right way and the big money played him in the Belmont.

Anyway, my point is I think it\'s nuts to play against the horse this weekend but the Belmont MAY be a different story.

Good luck, should be alot of fun!

[vp612]

Jim I understand where you are coming from but I look at things form a number aspect.Any horse for the most part will improve 8-11 points once his top is established,This horse has a 7`1/2 top and is now at -2,he has developed 9-1/2 points here and 8-1/2 points, on Ragozin.Is there more to go yes, their is, but not right now and that is the problem for me.Could he go back 2 points and win ,yes he could.I want to look at horses who have room to go forward, Departing for one,gov. charlie(I hope his foot is ok) for another,and both of them have better timing than Orb.Look I am in the minority,the world loves Orb ,but he is far from a cinch in my book.

[covelj70]

Just based on watching the horse over the last 4 months and getting a chance to see him up close during derby week and then wathing the breeze this week on the video, I would be surprised if he didn\'t run another 2 negative and I don\'t see another horse in the field who can do that.

All that said, you are doing what we are all supopssed to be doing, you are looking for reasons to beat a huge favorite and make a huge score.  I think that\'s awesome.

There\'s every possiblilty that I have become too much of a fan in this case and I have lost my objectivity which is why I am not going to make this a big play.

love the dialogue, thanks for the thoughts

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
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 I would be surprised if he
> didn\'t run another 2 negative and I don\'t see
> another horse in the field who can do that.
>

I may be misremembering, but hasn\'t Itsmyluckyday already run a negative 2?  Is it a possible scenario that they both run negative 2s in this race and the finish is decided by ground?

[covelj70]

SoCal,

Very fair point but a) Orb already beat Lucky in a race where Orb got the worst of the ground loss in the Florida Derby, and b) in a 9 horse field with some pace, they figure to be somewhat spread out so I don\'t see ground loss as being a huge issue here.

Just on the figures, lucky has a shot but I see it more as a shot underneath because there\'s not an obvious excuse for either of his last 2 losses to Orb.

[vp612]

Visuals can be dangerous.Arazi  when he came here for the BC juvenile won like everyone else was standing still and it was a horrible number and when he came back for the derby he was nowhere.Big brown after the knockout number in the derby won the preakness with a hammerlock and i knew he was done.I knew it after the derby.because the derby killed him and he backed up in the preakness and yet still won.This is similar in that the derby number, the pair ,is the knockout number and the 2 weeks just makes it worse.

[mjellish]

Vito, what percentage chance do you give Orb to bounce?  What do you think fair odds are on him to win the Preakness?

[vp612]

70%.

[vp612]

I just don\'t like playing anybody when I think they are going to bounce ,unless the odds are real good and in this case that\'s not happening..

[covelj70]

Vito,

If Orb runs a 0 and wins the preakness and goes off at 1/2 in the Belmont, I will be betting against him with both fists that day just like I did against Big Brown in the Belmonth (picked the wrong horse to win against Big Brown but who\'s counting, eh?  good idea, bad execution)

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCal,
>
> Very fair point but a) Orb already beat Lucky in a
> race where Orb got the worst of the ground loss in
> the Florida Derby, and b) in a 9 horse field with
> some pace, they figure to be somewhat spread out
> so I don\'t see ground loss as being a huge issue
> here.
>
> Just on the figures, lucky has a shot but I see it
> more as a shot underneath because there\'s not an
> obvious excuse for either of his last 2 losses to
> Orb.


Here are two obvious excuses for his last two -- (1) the Derby was run on a sloppy track and he ran his negative numbers on a fast track which is presumably the surface he will be getting on saturday and (2) in the florida Derby he (more than any other horse around) was not fully cranked up.  I think he was coming into the race off a nine week layoff...if any horse needed a race, it was him coming into that race.

Look, I get what all you are saying about how tough Orb looks.  However, they run these races, they just do not declare a winner, and anything can happen.  I may well just decide to skip the race.....but, before then, I am just trying to look at it from many different viewpoints.

Another way to look at Itsmyluckyday is that he is about to repeat a pattern that gave him a very explosive move already.  I recognize that the spacing creates some issues and I am very much rough-cutting here, BUT, Itsmyluckyday basically ran (albeit spaced out) a 0-2-x from Sept 15 through Dec 15 and followed that pattern with an extremely explosive move forward to a -1.5.  Now, he seems to be repeating that pattern, Jan 26 as the 0, March 30 as the 2, and the Derby as the X.  Arguably, his pattern is very strong and likely to produce a return to where he was.

Basically, Itsmyluckyday and Orb have both already run two -2s (I am rounding here).  The big difference is that Orb is coming off his big figs now into the Preakness and Itsmyluckyday ran his big figs back in January and now has a bunch of recovery time to get back to them.

I completely get everybody saying they are licking their chops getting ready to bet against Orb in the Belmont where he will be super overbet and having to run a third race in 5 weeks.  However, if he gets beat in Baltimore, you will have missed the chance.  Fusaichi Pegasus lost the Preakness at 1-5 (really 30 cents).  If you go in the archives and look at Fusaichi Pegasus\'s sheet, he looks much less of a bounce candidate than Orb does.  His trainer was one who can rival Shug.  Am not sure what he was saying going into the race, but I cannot imagine he could have made any bad moves bring the horse to Baltimore.  Again, I may well decide not to bet the Preakness, but, before the decision time comes up, I think you folks who are just handing him the race are being a bit premature.

[SoCalMan2]

Drysdale before Fusaichi Pegasus\'s Preakness --

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/05/16/sports/plus-horse-racing-preakness-fusaichi-pegasus-is-sharp-in-workout.html

[TGJB]

Red Bullet had something extra in his corner-- Steve Allday.

[covelj70]

I totally appreciate that you aee considering all angles but since you are, you have to think about the fact that his 2 neg was at a mile and a sixteenth and he may not want those extra panels.  

I know JB doesn\'t distinguish between the 1 1/16 and 1 3/16ths but I sure do

Orb\'s 2 negatives were at 1 1/8th and 1 1/4.  That means alot relative to how I think about the figures

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Red Bullet had something extra in his corner--
> Steve Allday.


Red Bullet did not jump up a lot in the Preakness (he ran a 3.5, but had already run a 4.0 earlier in the year).  Fusaichi Pegasus did however go backwards for the first time in his career coming off a set of paired tops (just like somebody else we know).

When I write that a 3.5 won the Preakness, I feel like I need to say \"Prices OK\".  Remember when they used to give race results over the radio and would say prices okay if the payoffs seemed off kilter?  Makes me feel nostalgic.