Belmont Odds

[justwin]

Below is from a poll that Horse Racing Nation has. Its a small sample (1,500 votes) but I have found these polls to be a pretty good indication of the odds in the past. Odds usually are not too far off. Golden Soul at 10-1 and Unlimited Budget at 20-1 seem like the value. If its sloppy with the expected rain Freedom could be very tough on the front even with Oxbow breathing down his neck.


Results    HRN Fan Odds
Orb 24%

2-1
Revolutionary 23%

5-2
Palace Malice 8%

8-1
Freedom Child 8%

9-1
Golden Soul 7%

10-1
Overanalyze 6%

11-1
Oxbow 5%

14-1
Unlimited Budget 3%

20-1
Will Take Charge 3%

22-1
Incognito 2%

27-1
Vyjack 2%

31-1
Frac Daddy 1%

42-1
Always In a Tiz 1%

48-1
Giant Finish 1%

56-1
Total Votes: 1546

[big18741]

I hope Revolutionary is 5-2.

Borel the only reason he hit the bottom of the tri in the Derby.

[MonmouthGuy]

Why is Palace Malice getting so much respect? What am I missing?

[Fairmount1]

Their poll doesn\'t represent a balanced odds line--it\'s at 128%, needs to be at 119% in NY.  And it fails to include Midnight Taboo altogether.  

Oxbow is the real surprise there as the Preakness winner not receiving much support in the fan voting.  Oxbow tends to always be in a contending position turning for home, save the Ark Derby.  But many people apparently believe he was a slow pace front running score that won\'t happen again.  Maybe he is real value underneath; I thought he would be an overbet horse in the win pool that would lead to bettors constructing ex/tri/super tickets to overuse him \"because he is being bet as one of the top choices in the win pool\" thought process.    

I think I underestimated the Rosie on a filly angle in my line.  Unlimited Budget will likely be less than 15-1 the more I consider it.

[justwin]

I believe its a combination of excuses in a few of his recent races and reports that he is training the best of the Pletcher\'s.

[justwin]

Someone noted after the derby that he was running on the dead part of the track. I think he has a decent shot but at 5-2 no value & I am passing on him under 4-1.

[toppled]

He still has a top of 4.5 with Thoro-Pattern giving him only an 18% chance of running a new top.  He could be working like the 2nd coming of Secretariat & I wouldn\'t put a dime on him.  Maybe it says more about the other Pletcher horses than it does about him that he\'s training the best of the Pletchers.

[boston]

20-1 offshore on UB.  Paired 0.75 - 0.75 might win the race!

[Silver Charm]

Toppled i bet this horse in Louisiana and yes he got a little rank or early moved but he stopped badly. In Kentucky he got tired lated and switched back on his leads and got run down. Then in Kentucky he runs off early (??) and stops again. Maybe he is learning his manners better in his Training but I really wonder about his distance capabilites. And there will be other pace in here.....

[toppled]

My biggest question mark on her is the distance.  When I look at her sheet, I see that all her siblings were sprinters.  Now that may be because 4 of them were bred to Montbrook.  Since the paired 0.75s were routes & Street Sense adds more stamina than her sibs were bred for, I can see why you like what you\'re seeing and she looks as good as anything else here on the numbers & weight advantage and she\'s in the 6 I have as my contenders (others are Orb, Oxbow, Freedom Child, Incognito, and Golden Soul).
My other concern is the jockey assignments by Pletcher.  At best among the 5, Rosie is 3rd string here with #1 JV returning to Overanalyze & #2 JC returning to Revolutionary-both have ridden Unlimited Budget in the past & land on other Pletcher horses (both of these are not in my list of 6 contenders, although on numbers many will include Overanalyze).

[toppled]

Is he going to be in your wagers or are you looking elsewhere?  Because you know the whys behind the PPs, whether you\'re is sticking with the horse or giving up provides a good insight, especially since I\'ve just been tossing him without carefully studying him and you definitely know more about him than I do.

[phil23]

Aren\'t horses like this exactly why we use these numbers? He has zero chance on figs and hasn\'t developed a lick from his debut last July. Him getting bet is just dead money for us to take advantage of, no?

[boston]

I loved PM\'s derby as a prep for the Belmont.  He was the pace at 45.33 and 109.80 and up until final yards was still in 7th place (ahead of 12 other good 3yr olds ).  5.5 lengths in front of Oxbow at 4f, and 3.5 lengths in front of Oxbow at 6f.  Only front runner to out perform him was Oxbow and he was going much faster early than Oxbow.

[boston]

i locked in at 20-1 on UB.  orb listed at 3-1.  oxbow 3.5-1. FC 10-1. incog 30-1 and golden 7-1.

[justwin]

That\'s a nice bet. Definitely the best value in the race. If the odds hold I will most likely make the same play on Saturday. With the weight break she is in negative tg # territory. I will use Golden as my backup play. If its wet it may be hard for me to pass up Freedom Child though.