I would never try to talk someone out of using a 40-1 shot especially one with number power that puts him in the conversation. But the big block in my mind is his breeding, mostly his sire, Into Mischief.
Going into the Derby, I believed it was a question mark if this sire could get a son or daughter to go 1 1/4 miles. I gave him (the sire) the benefit of the doubt. Then, I saw Goldencents and Vyjack not able to get the distance in the Derby. They had an excuse in the mud, the fast pace they attended, Vyajck\'s outside post, etc. Then, Goldencents came back and couldn\'t go 1 3/16 miles in Maryland. Now I view Goldencents SA Derby 1 1/8 win as aided by a speed favoring track combined with a weak field. I think the Louisiana Bred Sittin At the Bar is out of Into Mischief and has won a stakes or two. I think her best races have been at the shorter distances and she may have won at 1 mi, 70 yds but she has also lost at odds on in a route stakes in La. So I personally think Into Mischief can get horses to go 1 1/16 but much further seems a stretch.
I\'ll grant you these things in his favor: Vyjack ran a solid Wood Memorial at a 1 1/8 losing to a horse that many say was \"prematurely moved in the Derby\" in Normandy Invasion--heck based on the Preakness results, is it possible NI ran the best race in the Derby into the teeth of the wicked pace? Vyjack was right with him in the Wood. And his Derby appears to be a throwout altogether to me--but I still believe he may really, really like the mud meaning Freedom Child isn\'t the only mud lover in the group.
http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/AQD/2012/20121209/3/pan/But I just can\'t see him getting the 1 1/2 miles. Vyjack\'s mama threw a horse named Prime Cut that ran the 1 1/2 mile 2011 Belmont (Sire was Bernstein) and he ran 11th of 12. Into Mischief plus this tiny bit of info on his brother gives me no conviction he can win.
As for 40-1, I personally think that is high for at least three reasons. 1.) the withdraw of Always in a Tiz reducing the field to 14 makes it less likely; 2.) the last two Belmont\'s had fields of 11 and 12 with Ravelo\'s Boy in 2012 at 27-1 as the longest shot and Isn\'t He Perfect at 30-1; 3.) Frac Daddy and Giant Finish certainly should be longer prices.
But if you like a good story about a Ragozin user and his horse named after his parents, here\'s Haskin\'s take in March.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2013/03/04/haskin-s-derby-trail-the-unlikely-story-of-vyjack.aspx
