The Belmont by the Sheets (sort of)

[covelj70]

I will use the Thorograph sheets and the Thorograph sheets only to handicap 12 of the races at Belmont on Saturday.

The Belmont won\'t be one of them

Anyone who has read my posts over the years knows I am a die hard TG\'er, I have even been accussed of being a Kool Aid Drinker (which I consider to be a badge of honor on this board), and I use the TG\'s to place my horses, including hopefully into one of the undercard races on Saturday if the weather cooperates.

That said, I won\'t use the TG\'s (or any other speed figures) to handicap the Belmont and here\'s why.

1) Union Rags won in 2012 running a \"2\" with his previous top coming into the race being a \"2\"  2 horses that year had run figures faster than a 2 coming into the race, Payner and Dullahan.  In other words, the two fastest coming in didn\'t win and this was relatively formful compared to the previous 5 years.

2) Ruler on Ice won in 2011 running a \"1\" with his previous top coming into the race being a \"3.75\"  4 horses that year had run figures faster than a 1 coming into the race, Nehro, Shackleford, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man

3) Drsselmeyer won in 2010 running a \"1.75\" with his previous top coming into the race being a \"4.25\"  3 horses that year had run figures faster than a 1.75 coming into the race, Fly Down, First Dude and Ice Box

4) Summer Bird Rags won in 2009 running a \"1 neg\" with his previous top coming into the race being a \"1\"  3 horses that year had run figures faster than Summer Bird\'s top coming into the race, Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, Charitable Man

5) Da\'Tara won in 2008 running a \"1.75\" with his previous top coming into the race being a \"3.5\"  4 horses that year had run figures faster than a 1.75 coming into the race, Denis of Cork, Macho Again, Talke of Etaki, Big Brown

6) Rags to Riches won in 2007 running a \"1.5 neg\" with her previous top coming into the race being a \"1\"  3 horses that year had run figures faster than Rags to Riches previous top coming into the race, Curlin, Hard Spun and CP West.

So, what does all of the dribble mean?

It means that while for the Derby, we want to look for horses that have demonstrated they have run fast enough to win the race BEFORE the race (which is why I believe the Thorograph is so valuable for the Derby and why I tend to do well in the Derby), picking the winner of the Belmont is just about figuring out which horse is going to move forward in the race because they take to the distance and the Big Sandy surface (which is why I am historically awful at picking the winner of the Belmont since I have historically leaned so heavily on the TGs).  The fastest horse coming in hasn\'t won this race in a long time.

If I was playing the race as a normal race, I would take the filly as I love her numbers and her pattern and the weight she is getting.  Since this is who I would normally pick and I haven\'t hit a Belmont since Clinton was president, I think we can safely eliminate her, especially since I don\'t think she wants the distance with the Valid Expectations on the bottom side and the way she hung in the Oaks.

Instead, I like Palice Malice.  

He doesn\'t figure on the TGs (as none of the recent winners have so that fits) and I think he can get the distance and he comes into the race fresh and fit.  He was training suberbly before the Derby but the blinkers were a bad idea and all things considered with the fractions he carved out, he didn\'t run terribly in the Derby.

[TGJB]

If by \"use TG\" you mean bet the fastest horse, that\'s one thing. But I hit two of those and took vicious beats in two others (D\' Tara and ROI), beating bad favorites in both but losing to jumpups. Over the years the Belmont has been very good to me, and I\'m definitely using TG.

The Belmont is more about who is going in what direction than who is fast, as a rule, though trainers are spacing races a lot more, so it\'s tougher to simply toss fast horses (Big Brown etc.).

[covelj70]

very much agree JB.

If you can use the thorograph data to determine who\'s likely to jump up, that\'s obviously very valuable

the main reason of my post was that I read a bunch of other posts suggesting horses should be thrown out because they aren\'t fast enough or that the filly is the play because she has the best figures/patten, etc and that hasn\'t been the best way to handicap this race for the last 6 years (at least)

[TGJB]

I about half agree. I think how fast they are matters, but not if they have a weak pattern. One random horse in a race jumping up doesn\'t mean that much, I would take it a lot more seriously if the horses I DID like weren\'t running. Most of us on this site had the Big Brown Belmont right, DT was a random event (as was that friggin South American who cost me mid six figures in the BC and is back in the Brooklyn, but I digress). And if Rosario wasn\'t so wide on Brilliant Speed, Ruler On Ice wouldn\'t have mattered.

Point being that it\'s a small sample, and a couple of random things are not that indicative.

Belmont will be ROTW.

[covelj70]

wow, I am shocked that Belmont will be ROTW but I think that\'s awesome

alot of work and very cool that you continue to be so generous with the most valuable data

I don\'t agree with who I think you will pick but a) that\'s what makes a market, and b) as I said I haven\'t gotten this race right since Monica Lewinsky was in the oval office

That said, like you and others, I would have needed an arm guard to get out of Elmont if Denis of Cork had caught Da\'Tara.

Singled DoC in everything that day.  Thought I was in good shape when they were at the top of the stretch where we were sitting that day.  Never thought Da\'Tara would hang on as those fractions weren\'t exactly slow.

To this day, I can\'t bring myself to sit in that part of the track, matter of fact, I am sitting in the exact opposite section on Saturday on far side of the wire.  Top of the stretch brings back too many bad memories.

[TGJB]

Since you mention it, Lewinsky used to live in my neighborhood. During the impeachment hearings the press supposedly couldn\'t find out where she was, my girlfriend and I went to a restaurant across the street from my apartment and she was sitting 10 feet from us.

Saw her a few times with her friends, not a straight male in the group.

[Bet Twice]

I think the key with the Belmont is figuring out who can get the distance in conjunction with who has competitive numbers or at least a pattern that suggests that they could improve.  If one is just looking at their figures/pattern (which I tend to do in most races) you are asking for trouble.

So, I would disagree that the TGs aren\'t helpful in handicapping the Belmont, you just need to take other factors into account.  You can\'t rely on the numbers alone.

This is obviously not groundbreaking advice, just trying to clarify the point I think you\'re making.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I would agree that the numbers seem to matter less. But I do remember that Summer Bird and Rags to Riches both did look pretty good on Thorograph though.  (and Union Rags, if you factored in excuses in his last two races, was still viewed by many as the best horse in the Belmont)

The filly, Unlimited Budget, is the horse that I would most point to as an example this year of a horse that looks good on TG, but I wouldn\'t bet at twice the odds she will go off at.  She was despicable in the Oaks, don\'t care what number she got.  Sat behind the two front runners, off the dead rail (so the \"ground loss\" is meaningless, and then could not even go by Beholder, who is gutsy and classy, but wants no part of 1 1/8.  To think that the filly, with her dam side breeding, is going to run ANOTHER 3/8 of a mile beyond that, and run close to her best is just a not I could make.  (which on that point alone, may make her \"death and taxes\" in the Belmont)

As for Palice Malice, I guess he will run better, but which of his previous races gets your blood boiling?  Yes, he didn\'t drop dead on the track after the vicious pace in the Derby, but it wasn\'t like he ran well either.  I see him as an \"underneath\" possibility.

Even in a large field like this, the first key decision to make for me, is what to do with the favorite.  My first reaction after the Preakness was that Vito was right, the horse ran awful, bounced, he is over the top, etc.etc.  And that is still possible and even the most likely scenario.  But boy, the fact that he was on the inside, the worst part of the track, was uncomfortable, and seems to have bounced out of the race OK, gives credence to the fact that maybe you can put a line through the Preakness.  He was 2-5 in the Preakness and viewed as heads and shoulders better than the rest of his class by many.  Now he goes off 5-2 or 3-1, off the ugly running line.  

I don\'t want to play him, but he is still the only horse in this race that I think wins for sure, if he runs his race. And I can\'t yet fall in love with an outsider at a better price.  (of course, if it is sloppy, I am betting Freedom\'s CHild, without hesitation)

Good luck,

Jim

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

A sloppy track is a certainty; ugly Friday & Saturday.

[covelj70]

Hey Jimbo,

Whats up man?

I love Orb as a horse but I don\'t like any of them running their 3rd race in 5 weeks.  Tough assignment there.

Speaking of Vito, where did he go?

He made an awesome contrarian call in the Preakness and hasnt been around since. I want to hear what he thinks on the Belmont. He\'s got a hot hand.

Palice Malice has run well at Belmont which is a huge variable for me and he can get the distance and has some class and foundation.

I really can\'t say that about any of the others who aren\'t running their 3rd race in 5 weeks.

[justwin]

Certainly can\'t look at Palice\'s prior races for the Belmont. His first three were all too short for him and his last 3 were the run off blinker experiment in the derby, the polytrack where he didn\'t seem to like the track, and the LA Derby where he had no chance. I have no idea what to expect out of this horse. He may be one that always has excuses or we may soon find out he is really good. Certainly a possibility for me but I still like the filly better and Golden better. I also like Revolutionary better but not at less than 4-1. As I said before along with jimbo Freedom Child in the slop.

[kekomi]

this would be more helpful if you included who TG picked to win each year (it would also be more helpful to narrow down each year to just the horses with the 2 or 3 highest tops for each, so that each year has the same number of horses to compare, and to indicate where in relation to the other horses the winner was--i.e. was union rags the horse with the 3rd highest top?)...the horses with highest tops going seem to be in the top 3 frequently based on what you\'ve posted,if not so much in 1st:

2012--the 1 of the 2 horses with the highest tops going in finished in the exacta

2011--complete dud, none of the horses with the highest tops finished in the money

2010--2 of the 3 horses with the highest tops going in finished in the trifecta

2009--2 of the 3 horses with the highest tops going in finished in the trifecta

2008--a dud--only 1 of 4 finished in the money

2007--another dud, only 1 of 3 in the money

37% of the time horses with the highest tops have been in the money

[jimbo66]

Jim

You are showing your \"kook aid drinking\" side with the 3rd race in five weeks comment!  

As for Vito, he seems to have gone back to the dark side. He did make a great negative call on orb, but I am pretty sure it didn\'t help as he posted a negative call on ox bow as well.

I will look again at palace malice.  It makes sense to look for a price this year.

[kekomi]

do you really think orb will go off as the favorite?

there is so much vitriol being directed at him, i was thinking he might go off second or third, with unlimited budget/rosie napravik, freedom child, and/or revolutionary going of lower than him.

the orb-hate is at high tide right now.

[jimbo66]

Kekomi

Orb is 1-20 to go off favored

The filly is double digits.

Revolutionary is second choice unless frank d is right and we get a sea of slop, in which case freedoms child will likely be second choice