Belmont Race Shapes

[TreadHead]

OK, I finally got a chance to look thru the figs.

If you talked to their connex and they explained that to you, that\'s fine, but if not I\'m not seeing what the shame is in running 2nd to WiseDan in that race.  His races at 9f equal his best in his form cycles at any given time, so unless his connex don\'t use sheets it is hard to have an opinion that he is not at his best at 9F.

And while his less-than-firm races are not Xs, they don\'t seem to represent his best races either, which is why I say he is vulnerable, especially at the weight.  While the 1 post might be good for saving ground, I find that many times in turf races with decent-sized fields, this means one of two things for a drop-back closer.  Either getting trapped in on the rail behind a wall of horses, or maneuvering widest off the rail after everyone else has already gone by, negating the advantage of the rail.

With the weight advantage, there are a few capable of running a weight-adjusted 0thru2 here either already or with a small improvement, which unless POE runs a lifetime best on off-going, makes them competitive.

And the other thing I\'ll say is, remembering 2 or 3 years ago when it was actively raining during the racing most of the day, EVERY race on the turf was won in wire-to-wire fashion, including that 34-1 shot Mission Approved (or whatever his name was) in this very race.  If it is actively raining and there is water on the blades of grass, POE has absolutely the wrong style to win the race.

[covelj70]

Tread,

Good thoughts. Thanks

I disagree but hell, last time I aegued that a 3 to 5 shot was unbeatable on this board, Orb was seen flailing up the track.

I looked at this race alot ahead of time because we were going to enter Swift Warrior and his paired 1s with the 8 pd weight break from POE but with the forecast, we opted out at the last minute because I won\'t run him on a bog. That\'s how we bowed citrus kid\'s tendon and I vowed never to do that again.

I dont see anyone running in the 0 to 2 range which they would have to do with projected ground loss. The other 2 fast ones are either coming off a huge new top (twilight eclipse) or running their 4th race in 8 weeks (optimizer)

Finally, the other ones dont get to run on firm surface. They all have to run on the bog which will slow them all down

If he hadn\'t drawn the rail, I would be with you.

[Wrongly]

I find it interest that several times JB questioned a particular horse\'s ability to get the  1 1/2 distance but yet that was never mentioned as a negative on Overanalyze.  Dixie Union on top, sorry that\'s why I tossed him Derby Day and see no reason to change that opinion.  Orb may offer value again.  The filly is going to be totally over bet so I can\'t use her.  That leaves me with Revolutionary and Incognito for 2nd and third.

[moosepalm]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I find it interest that several times JB
> questioned a particular horse\'s ability to get the
>  1 1/2 distance but yet that was never mentioned
> as a negative on Overanalyze.  Dixie Union on top,
> sorry that\'s why I tossed him Derby Day and see no
> reason to change that opinion.  


Might want to ask Union Rags about that.

[covelj70]

Dixie union sired last years Belmont winner?

[TreadHead]

I think Bombaguia is definitely worth mentioning too.  After a weight adjustment, he has already run nearly a 0 on a less-than-firm track at this very track/distance and run good figures this year to indicate he is still in very good form.  And he has the front-end style I\'m looking for if the grass is wet.

I\'m less concerned about Twilight Eclipse\'s bounce given the time off and the relative strength of his sibling, Grand Contender.  While he may not pair, I still think a 2 may be good enough to win the race, and at his weight with a common path, that is really just a 3 for TE, which seems quite reasonable to expect here.

If it comes down to closers, if there is some give in the ground there are a couple euros that might be eligible to run better than they have shown so far, I think one of them ran a really good fig overseas as a 3yr old without Lasix of course, and if he can find that form again and make a small move forward with the Lasix and work out a decent trip, he could be dangerous.

The one thing I know for certain I can do, is adjust the figures relative to POEs weight.  I guess you and I differ about how sure you can be about the path a drop-back closer is going to run, especially with the risk of getting pinned down on the rail in a larger field.  Also, I believe that turf course drains toward the inside, and this race is on the inner turf, meaning the inside will be the worst part of the track if there is significant water.  I\'m sure you also noticed the couple of 1W4W trips in POEs history, this is the kind of thing I\'m talking about.

Given this scenario and the odds, I have to play the race with the opinion that he is going to give up that ground advantage (or suffer a blocked trip on a dead rail if he does not), and if I get beat at even money because that was the wrong opinion, I can live with it.  If they don\'t get much rain at all over those 48 hours, however, I\'m much less certain about this strategy and would have to re-think it.

You mentioned Optimizer, we are getting late in the spring campaign and DWL has a few running that day that have had pretty tough campaigns, this one included.  If he has anything left, he has the number power and style as well that could be tough.  Or he may end up being vanned off, who knows.  I think it\'s an exciting race and a great place to take a stab, but good luck either way.

[covelj70]

Tread,

POE has been no worse than 3rd at the 3rd call in 6 out of his last 7 races.

Where are we getting the idea that he\'s a \"drop back closer\"?

Looks like a stalker or more forwardly placed horse who will greatly benefit from a ground saving trip.

[Wrongly]

Granted, and in Europe there\'s been at least two.  That said; the percentages on Dixie Union offspring winning at 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 are not good.

[covelj70]

He may run up the track but I dont think it will have anything to do with Dixie union if he does.

The horse has already run his 2 best races going 1 1/8 including one in which he went 5 wide and galloped out all the way around the turn.  Dixie union was his sire when he did that.

He may not be good enough but there\'s nothing to say he won\'t get the distance.

[TreadHead]

Fair enough, that is my mistake as I guess I had his trip in the BC race last year too prominently in my head.  But with the pace setup in this race, I do think he will be optioning back behind at least half the field here and then the jock will have to make a decision about moving off the rail, and may need/want to anyway if that is the boggiest part of the track.

On BRIS anyway, QuickCas, RealSolution, Optimizer, Plainview, Bombaguia, Twilight and maybe even SpeakingofWhich all appear to regularly put out much more E1 speed than POE does.  If you are looking thru his PPs, I expect this race to shape up much more like the BC race for POE than others where he may have been laying 3rd in the early going *EDIT* many of those being 6 or 7 horse fields.

[covelj70]

Horse is fresh and sharp coming off a layoff and with a few bullet works

He\'s not goimg to be too far back.

[TGJB]

I\'m kinda curious as to why everyone is so quick to concede POE a figure he doesn\'t run that often...

What\'s his percentage chance of running it? And of winning if he does?

[kekomi]

i got to thinking about the pace study that showed that every belmont winner since secretariat had the flatest pace line in his respective race, so i went back to the derby to check the pace lines of the 9 horses that will be running against each other again in the belmont:

ranked from flatest to the sharperst pace lines:

orb

golden soul and revolutionary (tied)

overanalyze

giant finish

will take charge

frac daddy

oxbow

palice malice

vyjack

when you look at each horse\'s internal fractions--the race doesn\'t really support how it is described.

in order of fastest opening fraction:

palice malice: 22.57, 22.69, 24.32, 26.67, 28.86

vyjack: 22.77, 22.91, 24.67, 28.08, 33.34

oxbow: 22.83, 23.08, 24.10, 26.12, 28.28

frac daddy: 23.13, 23.78, 24.38, 26.96, 28.68

giant finish: 23.18, 23.31, 24.51, 26.52, 27.56

will take charge: 23.32, 23.55, 24.33, 25.60, 28.05

overanalyze: 23.53, 23.78, 24.15, 26.44, 27.15

golden soul: 23.62, 23.92, 24.01, 25.48, 26.11

orb: 23.74, 23.92, 23.98, 25.08, 25.88

revolutionary: 23.93, 23.84, 24.04, 25.39, 26.09

the 7 horses on the lead for the first 2 quarters, who ran at least a second faster than orb and company at the first call, and 2 seconds faster then them at the second call, clearly suffered a legitimate pace melt down, but the 10 other horses in the race were never even a second faster than they were at the first two calls, but still couldn\'t sustain their pace, and faded badly. i\'m not sure they qualify as victims of the pace though. i think they just petered out honestly.

orb, golden soul and revolutionary appear to have won because they were more successful at rationing their speed over the course of the race. they ran more efficient races. and it looks like that ability more than anything else is what wins the belmont (this is true in human distances races as well). if they can churn out consecutive 24s or 25s, they\'ll win. and even if they run 24, 24, 24, 25, 26, 27--they should still win, since the other horses run much less efficient races.

based on his brisk early fractions and slow final fractions in the derby in a shorterrace, sending frac daddy doesn\'t look like the best idea to be honest...

regarding orb\'s fractions:

he ran 84 feet more than revolutionary, 80 more than golden soul, 76 more than oxbow, 54 more than palice malice, 51 more than overanalyze, 39 more than giant finish, 30 more than will take charge--only vyjack and and frac daddy ran farther (12 and 18 feet respectively)...at some point distance run has to cancel out pace advantages, especially for horses that never ran even a full second faster in any quarter...

[kekomi]

dixie union has a large enough progeny pool to make betting against their ability to win at a mile and a half pretty rational based on the distance limitations almost all of them have consistently shown...and two dixie unions winning back to back...

[kekomi]

but to be fair, comparing a mile and eighth to a mile and half, is like comparing a mile to a mile and eighth, or 6f to a mile. many more horses can get a 1 1/8 than can get 1 1/2...