Belmont Race Shapes

[covelj70]

Frac Daddy sending from the rail according to his connections.  Freedom Child gonna have no choice from the 2 hole but to go.  Obviosuly Oxbow going to be up there from FC\'s outside.  Will be hotly contested early even if it\'s only those 3 and there could be a few others up there as well.

I think the 2 implications from this are that

1) neither Oxbox nor Freedom Child are going to get an easy ground saving lead like they did in their last respective races

2) The stalking types are at risk of losing significant ground on the first turn given those other three going for the lead.

[magicnight]

Isn\'t Midnight Taboo in this as a rabbit? I haven\'t seen his figs but he definitely has enough speed to be a pace factor here. Overanalyze\'s best races seem to be from well off the pace, and I\'ve got to think Repole wants to ensure a fast pace.

Throw in a wet strip and it looks like a pretty fast pace and a falling apart race when they turn for home.

[covelj70]

I agree Magic.

hmm, let\'s see

tiring wet track, potentially insane pace upfront

didn\'t we just see such a race a few weeks ago at Churchill Downs where the horses that were running 17, 18, 19 early were 1, 2, 3 at the wire.

Looking for which one will save ground and save energy early who is fresh and can handle the distance.

Golden Soul would have been really interesting but that 14 post hurts.  Not going to be easy to get over to the rail into the first turn.

[magicnight]

Wasn\'t Golden Soul really knocked out by his Derby effort? I know he\'s had rest and seems to be working well, but that was a big jump and I\'m leery of his form. The 12F breeding is there, but his price won\'t be too long so ... eh. Tough call.

[jimbo66]

Jim/Magic,

I don\'t see Taboo as a rabbit.  You don\'t bring Gomez in to ride rabbits.  Not his style.  They think the horse wants the distance.

McPeek talking about sending from the rail is one of the dumber comments I have seen.  You have to have a horse to send.  Other than a stupid suicide mission, Frac Daddy does not have the natural speed to lead horses like Freedom\'s Child or Oxbow early.  Hard for me to believe McPeek is THAT DUMB.  

As for Golden Soul, if you believe the pace will be that fast, which I don\'t, I would not worry about post 14.  The fast pace will surely stretch out the field and Golden Soul is dropping back, he isn\'t leaving for position, like some other mid pack types will be doing.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

who you like as of now?

After the post draw and the comments about Frac Daddy from McPeek, I am more inclined to lean toward Overanalyze

I don\'t like Palice Malice as much fromt he 12 hole.  That would seem to be a brual post for his style.

Overanalyze is fresh, has won at Belmont, should be able to drop down to the rail and save ground every step of the way if the first two really do go, has a jock that knows how to win this race and has good back TG figures to run to (even though I swore I wouldn\'t think about that this race)

[magicnight]

Jim, good point on Gomez. I had not considered that. Maybe I\'ll feel differently when I see his sheet, but even if they think he can get the distance, I think he\'d get it too slow to win the thing.

[Niall]

I think you are giving jockeys too much credit. GoGo wants to be here, even if a suicide mission. Million bucks what if the steed hangs on for 4th Sure he could go for the 55k NW1 out in CA. And I can hear McPeek now ... well he didnt break well so we took back ... blah blah ... C\'mon guys this is why WE play, because others are caught up trying to get inside the heads of the connections. Stay the course! Except for you Jim (jst kidding) Hey did you ever snap up those Clubhouse seats from Stub Hub? Later lads !!! Good luck to all, hope the weather doesnt turn out as bad as they are saying ...

[covelj70]

Hey Niall

good stuff

1) I know it\'s not going to rain a drop now because we didn\'t enter Swift Warrior because of the expected boggy turf course. Was 5k to enter and didn\'t feel like throwing that money down the tubes hoping the weatherman is wrong. That almost guarentees fast and firm.

2) I bet on Orb in the Preakness by paying 2x list price for the Clubhouse seats on StubHub prior to the Preakness.  Whoops

3) Maybe I am naive but I believe McPeek, he says horse runs better in the clear and there\'s evidence of that in his PPs so he will send him.  Garcia won this race going to wire to wire in similar fashion before.  I think he is really going to send him

[catcapper]

I am gratefully soaking up all the insights offered thus far...the only thing I can add (of any value?) at this point is that to ask Alan Garcia to send this horse is a complete waste of some of the best hands in the business. Maybe McPeak just wants to get position. McPeak uses AG regularly at Churchill now, so he is aware of Garcia\'s sweet and deft touch as a jock - and is going with him here despite his high stats with VLebron.  Maybe with position, AG can get the horse to relax and get him out of the inside? Beats me.
I recall mjellish\'s comments about Frac Daddy\'s prior races. And I know he is someone that watches the horses themselves closely.

At this point, I am liking the top three Derby finishers plus maybe Oxbow. Maybe swap out one for WTC? Frost Giant?  Don\'t know yet, but Orb and GS looking good right now for me.

[catcapper]

Just posted my thoughts on AG being asked to send his horse. I this think you are right. He must be planning on sending him to at least get position and avoid the kickback, etc.  (see mjellish\'s former comments. I haven\'t watched replays for this race yet)

Whether or not he can hang on is another question, but it may be his only real chance and with the rail he could save ground and maybe get a check.

[covelj70]

hah, ironic

after saying yesterday I wasn\'t going to use the TGs to pick my horse in the Belmont, after the draw I wind up on the same horse as JB does in the ROTW

man, this TG thing is some kind of disease, I can\'t get it out of my system!

[jimbo66]

Jim,

When I bet the Belmont, I don\'t put a ton of weight in the figures.  (sorry TGJB)

Right now, I am inclined to believe Orb is \"over the top\", which to me means anybody can win, because I don\'t like the next two choices, Revolutionary and Oxbow.

I am probably going to spread with both the Pick-4 and Brooklyn/Belmont double, using Overanalyze, Freedom\'s Child, Golden Soul and Incognito.  (possibly even your Palace Malice)

Point of Entry has to fall down to lose on reasonably firm turf.  The Just a Game looks open to me.  I will be pressing the fast West Coast horse, Let em Shine, in the Woody Stephens.  I don\'t know if I can single him, as the field is tough, but I will be pressing hard.  I don\'t know what the TG numbers look like, but he is very very fast and talented.

Jim

[TreadHead]

Jimbo, with 80% rain on Fri and 60% sat, I\'d say fast/firm is a pipe dream, which makes POE vulnerable if he does race, given that his connex have scratched him for nothing more than track conditions recently.  They know he does not like give in the ground.

This, to me, makes that race wide open, and creates some great value in pk3/4 when you take the Belmont into consideration too.

[covelj70]

POE won a grade 1 at Belmont on a yielding turf course last year, running a figure that fit with his pattern in the process

That horse will run over broken glass.

They scratched him at CD because it was a 1 1/8th which wasn\'t his game in the first place and because Wise Dan is a freak job and because he wasn\'t doing that well going into the Woodford (I saw his last breeze myself), he got very hot going onto and coming off of the track

If he hadn\'t drawn the rail maybe you could make a case that the extra weight and the ground loss combined gives someone else a shot but I have to agree with Jimbo now that with the field that entered this thing and with that rail draw, he would have to fall down to lose.