Pick 4, Kent D.

[Fairmount1]

All the talk of the Belmont, beating POE in the Manhattan for Pick 4 value versus he is a lock.....let\'s talk the Woody Stephens and Pick 4.  Thoughts?

I like several because I think the Manhattan is a two deep at most race and will be spreading for a price from these 3yo sprinters.  Kent D. has one mount total Friday and Saturday.  It\'s Merit Man who finished third in the Fla Derby losing to the Derby winner and the second place finisher in the Preakness that day at Hallendale.  So.....as 7th choice on the morning line in an 11 horse field, are you using him?  Can you see him hitting the tri?  One of my friends has extraordinary success betting jocks with a single mount that had to travel out of their usual base for that mount at some really good prices.  I routinely throw his horses out and he cashes huge exactas/win tickets on this angle.  

Is Kent D. in town to remember his Belmont win on Summer Bird?  Or to exorcise the demons in his life from Big Brown and what was that other horse\'s name???....the one that lost to Victory Gallop of TG fame??  Or just to win this race?

Pick 4 play assuming a RAIN filled Turf course/mud and huge day for Shug missing out on the big one:  

Hungry Island WITH ALL (recent TG board discussion prompted this) WITH POE WITH 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 11, 13  $38.50 for $.50.  Tossing Orb for Value with the POE single and using Vyjack from convincing by phil23.    

Richiebee, what\'s your play if you don\'t mind sharing before you attend the mudfest \'13?

[richiebee]

What\'s Up Fairmount? Are you going to be watching from Living Room Downs, or with
your chums at FP? Either way best of luck.

Speaking of luck, how bad is NYRA\'s, that one of the biggest (if not the biggest)
day(s) of the year will be impacted to some extent by a tropical storm.

Usually this would be a day that I \"step up\" wagering wise, but uncertainty with
regards to track/course conditions and a very tough Belmont Stakes in which I have
no strong opinion makes it more like a day to proceed with caution.

To be brief, looking at the two turf races in the P4 sequence, consider that euro
invader Laugh Out Loud, longest shot on the board at 15/1, took a Grade 2 at
Chantilly almost exactly one year ago (solar return handicapping) on a course with
some give in the ground. No published works since an ugly looking seasonal debut
at St. Cloud 5 weeks ago v colts.

In the Manhattan, if one were to take a shot against POE, Optimizer, who likes a
soft course, looks oh so logical off the TG #s.

Both LOL and Optimizer ridden by G. Stevens, so before scratches, for $77, how
about LOL/All/Optimizer/All?

[heatherk]

Fairmont1 wrote - One of my friends has extraordinary success betting jocks with a single mount that had to travel out of their usual base for that mount at some really good prices. I routinely throw his horses out and he cashes huge exactas/win tickets on this angle. A. Gryder just did exactly that. Did you use on your friends theory?

[Fairmount1]

Work obligations prevented me from wagering yesterday.  The jock angle really is an interesting and simple one to follow at all levels of the game.  

As JB alluded to, Albertrani horses running some big numbers right now. I\'m staying with POE over Twilight but I won\'t be surprised if Twilight wins.

A few words of praise on Belmont Day:  TG doing a fantastic job with using the ROTW for the big race--if you want to attract people to your product, this is a great way to do it. And the board discussions this week have been outstanding.  Not sure if these two things are related but I prefer to see many posts assuming they are well intentioned.    

A commenter mentioned the purpose of the board is learning and guiding concerning TG products/numbers and JB has stated recently this is not just a \"general\" horse racing forum.  I\'d just add the board really seems to have a strong influence on people\'s thoughts concerning some pretty serious issues in the game. How much influence it has on the horse racing world can\'t be quantified....but it certainly can\'t hurt with improving a game that needs serious improving we presumably would all agree.