Race 5
Looking at the replays of their last and relevant races, it appears to me, that the 8, in his only race, stopped running more than he tired. It looked like he had the momentum but didn’t or wouldn’t pass to the lead when it was before him. Next, looking at his workouts, he was breezed a bullet two weeks after the race, followed by 2 more sharp workouts, the last at 3f. Then he has two more typical Hushion maintenance works. This workout story tells me that what I think I see in the replay is true. And the connections have tried to breeze some spit into the horse with the sharp early works, to reinforce the point of his job to him. Then they give him solid maintenance works. He’s had more time to learn and condition, a nice layoff. You cannot count Hushion out in such a situation. That would be foolish. But, will he run with heart today? Will he go wide, will he hang?
There are some others who have recently raced in the mud lately as well. Notably the 4, 6 and 7. Looking at their replays, I can see reasons/excuses? as to why they may have run better. On May 25, the 4 and 6 both outran a 4/5 to place and show behind a closing Clement horse. And they did it on the rail on a muddy track. The 6 has since had a bullet, it is 2nd off the layoff for the the elder Jerkens. It is getting 5lbs though. A lightly raced 4yo. The 7 is cutting back from a mile. I think these three kept running in their last races, though they didn’t win, but they they did keep running. The 6 deep on the rail did back up some.
Today is a fast track. And it is an another 1/16 to run. But the 8 sports a classic, very successful Hushion training pattern. That barn can certainly get one ready, and they don’t look to waste a race. Nice layoff, nice works. Connections count. For me, the question as to his being beatable would be, does the horse have enough heart to really win? He will certainly be more fit and ready than any of these for sure. That alone might be enough to be the bet. Plus he is 3yo.
Lord knows, there is a deep urge in all of us to beat a 3/5 ml. And it warrants extra time in studying him and his opponents more closely, as we look for betting value. At the same time, it is equally true that a 3/5 winner is always better than a 7-1 loser. In races like these, where there a good number of professional maidens (rats some say), I look for the unproven rat, not the biggest rat. To me that would leave the 6 and the 8.
**A quick aside, the 2 is a very scary horse in here and I mean it literally frightens me. In both previous races the horse backed up like crazy, the jock looking around trying not to stop anyone or worse. He was vanned off the first time. The running line for his most recent race, “Brushed start, outrun” is so far off of what happened. Again, he backed up like a maniac. Either it is a bad coincidence that this happened in both races, or the horse is not mentally prepared for racing, or it has a physical issue. Three different jocks named, all in decending order of success and experience. (And it breezed a bullet 10 days after the last race.) I am afraid to watch.
