Other than what you\'ve written I do not know anything about the odds and results of the race. I\'ve looked at the sheets and given decent odds Brenda\'s Gold was usable. The immediate pattern, a pair of tops and off race, can result in an improved effort especially in young horses but as Thoro-Pattern notes, it doesn\'t happen as often as we perhaps once thought. We haven\'t articulated rules of thumb in this instance other than to say in general big bounces are worse than small reactions. You always have to consider the context as well--in this case the pair of tops represented 5 points of improvement, quite a bit. Also the rail can be a tough post for a relatively inexperienced horse. Yes, the winner also showed 5 points of improvement but from last year, and the trainer was smart enough to rest her and she hadn\'t really bounced before. Brenda\'s Gold was certainly eligible to improve off her last but was no guarantee to get back to her top. Can\'t say you did anything wrong other than to think Rivertown Belle didn\'t have a shot.
