Frankel goes east...

[JohnTChance]

Reference is made to an earlier post here about MEDAGLIA D\'ORO going
east instead of staying west. The following are my personal thoughts.

The reason why MEDAGLIA D\'ORO is running in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream
[instead of the San Antonio at Santa Anita] has a lot to do with the fact that Frankel\'s
VET is east coast-based [really Kentucky] and is wintering in Florida. See last year\'s
coming-out-party explosions of EMPIRE MAKER and MIDAS EYES at Gulfstream
on Florida Derby day, and even PEACE RULES winning the Louisiana Derby at the
Fairgrounds last March. All eastern locations. [This should not be interpreted as any
kind of specific endorsement as to how MD will run in the Donn next week.]

There was a stretch of time - what? just about 5 years ago? In the span of the late
1980\'s to the mid-1990\'s? - when Bobby Frankel would RARELY come east with his
horses. [Remember BURNT HILLS, who ran in the Gotham or Wood? Wasn\'t that
a typically underachieving Frankel Derby hopeful within this period? I\'m not sure.]
Anyway, we used to rarely see Frankel in New York. He raced, overwhelmingly, in
California. Then suddenly... wham! He shows up in New York with a string. And
soon after this he sets a record for stakes wins at Saratoga. We all know his spectacular
results since then.

What happened? Why the sudden shift in Frankel\'s focus to New York?

The story goes that 5 years ago or so, Frankel was in New York and happened upon
young LEADING TRAINER, who had burst upon the New York scene at the top
of the trainer standings, virtually overnight, after apprenticing for his dad, a notorious
winning trainer in Maryland and then New York. To make a long story short, essentially
Frankel asks Leading Trainer about his success... Leading Trainer tells Frankel that he\'s
\"got this new vet,\"... Frankel hires the vet... and the thoroughbred world has felt this
cosmic shift ever since.

Steroids rule. And sadly, to a great extent, he who has the most aggressive vet... wins.

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

John, you really should post here more often.

I don\'t think the dad was doing anything, but I could be wrong. As soon as he died the son(s) started getting numbers, and I got nailed by one of them-- one of the few Prestonwood debacles happened when we bought a horse from one of them, right when things started, and there wasn\'t enough yet to tip us off. The horse fell apart.

Frankel started getting dramatic improvement in the spring/summer of 2001. His whole barn moved forward at the same time about 3-4 points to new tops, and since they were almost all older horses, the chance of that happening naturally is a few billion to one.

Or, maybe it\'s the Ragozin sheets. If so, he should be paying more than the few bucks he does now.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t think Sr. cheated either. In my opinion he was a genuine horseman. Lite the Fuse was just a good horse finely trained.

[jbelfior]

JOHNT---


Terrific post. I agree that you should show up here more often.


PS: I\'m praying FUNNY CIDE runs the race of his life next Saturday.




Good Luck,
Joe B.

[JohnTChance]

Jerry, it\'s interesting you bring up your Prestonwood call. This past weekend,
in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds, one of the early preps for the
Derby, trainer Steve Asmussen had his new acquisition, POLISH RIFLE, entered
for his clients, the Heiligbrodt and Stonerside Stables. Apparently, Asmussen was
high on the horse. After all, the colt was coming off four good ThoroGraphs in his
two year old year: an 8 debut... then another 8... then a 3... and then a 5. Bettors
made him the solid, even-money favorite for the race. But did they overlook an
important red flag? The same lesson you learned?

The colt was acquired from [drum roll...] one of the sons you alluded to, Anthony,
who went to Maryland after his father passed away and became a preposterously
high-percentage trainer there. Now... Rule # 22 in the book of Rules For Acquiring
Horses says [and I quote]: \"NEVER BUY A HORSE FROM A TRAINER THAT WINS
40%!\" Fast forward to Saturday\'s Lecomte. POLISH RIFLE tubed, finishing off the
board. 5th in a 7 horse field. \"No response late.\"

Maybe POLISH RIFLE was reacting to the 3 he ran weeks ago, and the stage
was set there for some variation of an O - 2 - X REGARDLESS of who Asmussen
bought him from. Or maybe it was just a fluke, and Asmussen will get the colt to
run better next out. Or soon.

Nevertheless, in any case, I think Rule #22 still applies.

The only instance I can remember where someone has taken
a horse trained by \"son Anthony\" and moved it up occurred with
BURNING ROMA. \"Son Anthony\" did pretty well with that one as a 2 yr.
old. He got the animal to run some good numbers. Then, in the beginning
of BR\'s 3 yr. old year, he [necessarily?] handed it off to trainer Heather Giglio,
who wintered the colt at Tampa Bay Downs. I remember being quite surprised
to see Giglio improve the horse\'s ThoroGraphs to the extent that it won the
2001 Tampa Bay Derby.

Also, by the way, my favorite Frankel \"dramatic improvement\" in 2001 wasn\'t
an older horse. It was the 2 yr. old filly, YOU, who Frankel bought off trainer
Hal Wiggins. YOU had debuted for Wiggins with an 11 in a maiden claimer,
and she ran another 11 for him shortly thereafter. In the first race off the
acquisition, Frankel, threw her into a 150k stakes race at Saratoga [!], and
she won [!]... with a 3! Next out at Belmont in a 500k stake, she paired the 3!
As Charlie Brown often resignedly says in the last frame of those Peanuts
comic strips: \"Sigh.\"

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

Funny you should use the word \"tubed\", since that\'s the slang term for the way milkshakes and other raceday drugs are administered...

[asfufh]

Just wondering...wouldn\'t it be easier for Frankel to just fly his Vet to the West coast rather than ship MD\'ORO and/or other horses to Florida to be near the Vet?

[Dr. Fager]

It seems Randaroo didn\'t do too badly after Kiaran McLaughlin took over her training from Anthony Dutrow, winning the First Flight (GII) at Belmont and finishing 2nd to Island Fashion in the $250K La Brea at SA.  Maybe they use the same vet?



Post Edited (01-30-04 23:36)

[JohnTChance]

Good point about RANDEROO. I forgot about him. He certainly did
well when handed off to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. But it should be
noted that McLaughlin\'s no slouch in the \"potency\" department himself.
He\'s won with 8 of his first 11 starters at Gulfstream. That\'s a 73% winning
percentage at a tough meet. Yikes! By the way, after apprenticing for
DW Lukas, then going out on his own as a trainer, then working as
a jockey\'s agent, McLaughlin has spent most of the past few years in
Dubai as a contract trainer for the Sheiks and ultra-wealthy Arab clients.
This past Spring, he returned full-time to the US and was determined to
re-establish himself here. He\'s certainly turning heads and doing that.
Check out some of the serious ThoroGraphs his horses have run since
the Belmont Spring meet opened.

Another good point was why Frankel\'s vet just doesn\'t just fly west.
He does. [My understanding is that he has an assistant.] But my guess
is that they\'re watching him and maybe he\'s under the radar gun a little
too much out there. It should be noted that Frankel\'s Breeder\'s Cup Day
at Santa Anita wasn\'t too successful. [Yet interestingly, his horse that ran
the best that day was MEDAGILIA D\'ORO in the Classic. Hmmph.] It also
should be noted that the vet-in-question\'s main clients, the people that
make up his bread-and-butter day-to-day income, are at Gulfstream:
Dale Romans and Todd Pletcher. We\'re talking a lot of horses here.

JohnTChance

[Michael D.]

which of the trainers mentioned on this string have tested positive in the past? i know at least one or two have...... i would guess the lucas disciples are winding their horses up like quarter horses, putting the best speed rider aboard (JR), and stealing all kinds of races on speed favoring tracks, and probably doing it within the rules (especially pletcher). but who knows for sure?? the problem with the current drug testing policies is that even the guys who are playing fair are now under suspicion.

[kev]

I say who cares. It\'s funny how some people will say so and so is using the good stuff, A. how does anyone really know?? B. If you do know why not just keep it to yourself and bet them or use them in the Ex\'s or tri\'s with a longshot that you might like? C.It seems like every trainer now that hits at a high win %, everyone will come out of the wood work and say, oh he must be using something, who cares. Really who cares. Why doesnt anyone talking about capping some races??? For ex. who does everyone like in the feature at FG 9th today?? Me I like Great Bloom and a must use for my ex\'s is Warleigh. I think GB has enough time from the 2.3 he ran on Oct.22 to come right back to it today, he got the bounce out of the way last time out. With Warleigh he looks solid to run a 1.2 today and looks to save groud over my top pick, but the odds will have me betting GB and a nice Ex. him under Warleight.

[Michael D.]

i like Warleigh to turn the tables on SA. sellers turned the last race into a 200 yd sprint, and just wasn\'t quick enough to hold off SA. Warleigh on top, using SA underneath (seems to be in good form, tough to toss), and Storybook Kid in there somewhere. SK had some nice races last year, but lost form at the end after being used too much; slightly better pace today, and an extra 1/16 to work with. 4 over the 7,9, and a box with all three (soft turf and i pass the race).

[Michael D.]

i didn\'t like my picks on soft turf, but, like an idiot, i still played the race. warleigh was just awful. SK ran OK, but was again caught behind a slow pace. not very good handicapping there.

[kev]

Same here I made my bet\'s before I saw it was on soft turf. That\'s the way it goes sometimes.