The San Antonio

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Another reason Megadeath may have skipped this one for the Donn might be the top two choices, both of which had him bested at one time on Breeders Cup Day. Besides the other variables Frankel may believe he\'s found a softer spot. I\'ll be outraged if Nose the Trade jumps up here. This horse shouldn\'t be a factor on past form. Bailey is on Conagree. Caveat: Once Dr. Sauce took him over he became a pace horse, but for the bad outing with Bailey up.

But the greater outrage is Conagree giving the Breeders Cup Classic winner three pounds. What the heck is up with that? Sure, I know Conagree has multiple Grade I wins, but to my knowledge he\'s got the same number of post three year old Grade I wins at 9 marks and farther as Pleasantly Perfect: One.

This is the Breeders Cup Classic winner on his home track for crying out loud, where he beat Conagree at equal weights by 2 and a half lengths. They should be equally weighted or Pleasantly giving a pound or two.

I know its only three pounds. (I think Five)When its over tell me it didn\'t matter. This really isn\'t a betting race and the weights made it less so in my opinion.

CtC



Post Edited (01-30-04 16:00)

[jbelfior]

Chuckles---

You\'re correct--this is a bad betting race. CONGAREE should have no problems giving weight to the Classic winner---no MDO to give him any class pace pressure.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Joe I respect your analysis from what I\'ve read here. But I\'m not so sure with the weight issue this race is right up Conagree\'s alley.

Conagree doesn\'t have to have the lead. I think he prefers a horse to shoot at and in this race I think he\'s gonna get it. Nose the Trade should be in front. Granted theres a rider change to factor, but I can\'t discern anything different in the training pattern to project a pace alteration since Frankel took him over. If you\'re in receipt of 11 pounds I think you take the race to the higher weighted horse. You make him come and get you. If you let him \"skip to my lou\" without pressure he may not feel the weight. I know some don\'t buy into that, but in my opinion Nose is gonna go and Conagree is gonna have to run a bit. How hard I\'m really not sure, but to me that is the key. If he has to run a bit harder than he\'d like that weight may become a factor. And like I said I make it five pounds, not three.

Despite thinking highly of him, I was contemplating a bet with P.P. out of the top two. Now I think he\'s two lengths closer. That really feels like its two lengths too close for comfort. Theres little margin for error. I like one of the long price horses.

I think these other horses a little better than some may think.

CtC

[Dr. Fager]

Nose the Trade is a scratch in the San Antonio today, leaving a 4 horse field.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Obviously Conagree didn\'t run his race and P.P. is a load. I didn\'t bet, but that wasn\'t a bad perfecta at all.

CtC

[jbelfior]

Chuckles---

Not sure what was up with CONGO, but PP has become a real bear. I\'m impressed with the new up close style and finishing up.

CONGO\'s race was too bad to even think prep...but he has been known to throw in one of these every now and then. Hopefully he has not grown sour at the age of 6.

The BIG CAP will be interesting assuming MDO picks up right where he left off.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear you Joe. Conagree is sporadic enough that betting him to win or miss the board is not a bad strategy. I didn\'t bet the race but I considered the miss the board angle. I just didn\'t think it would happen, especially after the Nose scratch. In six starts at Arcadia he WAS 4-1-0-1, with the game fourth in the B.C. Classic. Theres always a little more uncertainty with a layoff start as well. But I tend to think Congaree will be back, I\'m not sure he\'ll be ready by Big Cap though.

Congaree won\'t be the only one regrouping.

lol

CtC

[jbelfior]

CtC--

I agree; CONGAREE will probably be back ( I hope, he\'s a terrific horse and good for the sport). Not sure if the Big Cap is in his plans anymore. If I\'m Baffert, perhaps I\'m thinking Dubai where the race over there tends to be paceless.


Good Luck,
Joe B.