Robo Betting

[Wrongly]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/i-robot-the-future-of-horse-race-wagering/

Whatever happened to closing the pools 30 seconds to 1 minute before post?  I liked when tracks did that.  Guess the average player really has no standing in the game.

Dana Parham - interesting stuff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKqzD3jdBvc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf_Yno4Jg-8

[razzle]

Good article.  Scherf has been around a long time.  Very credible guy, IMO.

[Boscar Obarra]

Well done piece on a subject that gets too little play.

 The payoffs in the exotics change dramatically on the last flash based on whatever arb those guys are running on the race.  No, they don\'t always get it right, but often enough.

 I posted many months ago that some crew was betting 15k or more  into the NY exacta pool early in the betting, nearly every race. Many times on insane combinations, skewing the odds badly. This went on for some time, with what looks like mediocre results (from what I could tell).
 
 Gone now. Or changed the m.o.

[JimP]

For me, this is a bigger problem with the game than drugs. Trying to handicap a race when you don\'t have a reasonable approximation of what the final odds will be destroys the game in my opinion. The objective of handicapping is to find the overlays. It\'s just a guessing game if there are no reliable payoffs posted prior to the race.

[miff]

Jim,

Some of the software I\'m aware of places the bets at the very last moment AND anticipates the approx bets that will be made until the machine locks.

Believe robo betting a ticking time bomb, a scandal waiting to happen.Computer propeller heads way to genius for the inept racing monitors.Doubt they can be stopped from someday devising a way to either past post or gain a substantial edge over average players.

The biggest players I know are far more concerned with pool integrity than all the bullspit legal drug issues/roundtables et al.Everyone wants illegal stuff out.


Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

They still have to use the RIGHT horses. Not sure if they find that a trivial matter or not.

 All the math in the world, you still need to hold a winning ticket.

[jerry]

Absolutely. Especially with doubles and exactas. Those payoffs can change as much as 50% from the last posted probable to the actual payoff.

[jerry]

Pool integrity is my biggest worry. I\'ve never seen such large percentage payoff changes from the last posted to the actual payoff. It\'s the truest indicator in handicapping any race. Just follow the money.

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Absolutely. Especially with doubles and exactas.
> Those payoffs can change as much as 50% from the
> last posted probable to the actual payoff.

I\'ve seen exacta payouts drop nearly 50% inside the last minute. Agree Mike, at least as important than the drug issue.

[BitPlayer]

The most interesting thing to me about the Parham interview was that he talked about betting tris and supers. Do these guys have access to data about those pools or are they just making informed guesses?

[Beau]

Mike,

I agree, in my opinion this concerns me more than the drug issues. I stated it in the write in part of the survey that was given recently from TGJB.

Beau

[Breakage]

Just now figuring out been playing against HAL for the last 15yrs?

Can\'t make this stuff up.

really knowledgable guy-the Croat using a highly enriched version of the Benter/Woods software has been setting the prices for almost every race for a ridiculous amount of time.

comically a weakness is when multiple races go off at once-doesn\'t effect the batch entering arb guys like Elite and Wagner but it sure does make life rough on the croat and dana.  So next time you feel like crying abt coincidental off times-remember crying  to your own detriment-if ten races went off at once the general betting public would be much better off.


Nice lie abt the TDN race too or please tell me where I can get down for thousands on TDN out of the pools.

[jerry]

For reference, the Assateague/Cross Traffic double went from $267 to $160. The Assateague/Fort Larned double went from $212 to $105. God that late money is smart.

[Topcat]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For reference, the Assateague/Cross Traffic double
> went from $267 to $160. The Assateague/Fort Larned
> double went from $212 to $105. God that late money
> is smart.


Not always . . . I\'d heard from multiple rumormongers (though not from anyone REALLY close to the horse) that Fort Larned\'s recent training was less than shiny/sparkly . . .

[jerry]

I wasn\'t surprised. I figured he\'d bounce off the big negative number. I just hoped he\'d pressure CT enough to knock them both out. CT didn\'t have much left at the end. Or was the weaving JV\'s idea? Certainly affected the momentum of the second and third place horses.

By the way, has anyone ventured a guess as to what kind of number Fort Larned might have earned 3 races back when he dumped his jockey at the start and then ran off to cross the wire something like 20 lengths in front sans jockey? Even adjusting for the weight I\'d guess he ran a big number. Just curious.