Since I know there will be no shortage of ppl ready to jump on him when he loses tomorrow, just wanted to provide some perspective ahead of time.
He\'s going to bounce tomorrow.
Could he bounce and still win? Perhaps, but given how things went this spring, I\'m expecting a pretty big bounce. I\'m not sure we will ever know for sure why he was in such (relatively) sorry shape for Derby week, it is exceedingly strange given how far removed he was from his huge figure in Feb. I\'m sure the connex did everything they could to have him primed, but as folks like Covello have shared with us in detail, for whatever reason he was not at all himself for Derby week.
This, to me, is a pretty negative sign if you are expecting him to be a 70s or 80s style horse that can go out and run solid efforts every time, or someone who can run huge races and not react badly to them. To me, it means he is somewhat brittle if they couldn\'t have him in the right place for the biggest race of the year.
Strangely, however, people want to use his Derby performance to evaluate his abilities as a horse. He can\'t get 10 furlongs. He doesn\'t like slop. He can\'t handle pace pressure. Orb is tons better a horse. What sense does any of this make? How can you evaluate someone\'s ability at the bottom of their form cycle rather than at the top?
Now I get it, some people want to use the fact that he had such a wide swinging form cycle as an argument against him being a \"great\" horse. There\'s no denying that he is likely not a super-sturdy horse that is going to give you a top or near-top effort every time out like a Zenyatta. That\'s a fine argument, but 3yr olds able to put out top efforts every time are few and far between since the steroid era ended (Big Brown timeframe). In a two month span, 2 big stakes races are common, but 3 is not something that really happens much anymore for 3yr olds, or older horses for that matter. They all either take breaks or throw in a bad race.
So if Orb finishes ahead of Verrazano, what is the truth? That Orb is a better horse than Verrazano because he beat him the only 2 times they raced? Or that Orb caught Verrazano at the bottom of his form cycle twice while Orb was near his peak each time? Is there anyone out there that thinks Orb would have finished within 8 lengths of Verrazano in the Haskell?
Is the truth that Verrazano can\'t get 10 furlongs (which there is absolutely nothing in the pace figures of every other race other than the Derby to suggest he can\'t) or that the only 2 times he\'s attempted it, he\'s been at the bottom of a form cycle? I\'m sure there will be no shortage of simpletons tweeting after the race that it is too far for him.
If he has multiple failures going forward after some rest, then we can start talking about him being a disappointment. But as far as tomorrow is concerned, this race tells us nothing about Verrazano at all, unless he happens to win. There are still plenty of opportunities for something like a Ghostzapper-like performance in the BC classic to further demonstrate the tremendous ability he has.
So I hope all the haters enjoy getting their shots in after the race tomorrow, but unfortunately for them, failure in this race wont mean failure for the year or that he isn\'t a tremendously talented horse. It just means he isn\'t superman and bounces off big efforts, like horses not on steroids are supposed to. Good luck to all tomorrow.
