Right and Two Wrongs

[richiebee]

My approach to the all stakes P4 was based on the feeling that Forty Tales was
a beatable short priced favorite. I spread wildly enough that I even included
Capo Bastone, who did not stand up with these # wise.

Unfortunately I also thought that Laughing (who I bet 3 weeks back in the
Diana) and Will Take Charge (who I bet 3 weeks back in the Jim Dandy) were
going to bounce rather severely. As the day unfolded it seemed like the speed
favoring (an understatement?) turf course would assist Laughing, but still
thought that WTC would bounce like a Pennsy Pinkie, a Spaldeen, a Super Ball.

Not.

Congrats to all the winners. Hope to see some of the crew next Saturday/Sunday.

[drbillym]

Didn\'t make it to the seminar, but by redboarding the analysis looks like they did pretty well. Anybody up early enough to benefit? My buddy was live in the pick 3 to Moreno!  OUCH!

[rhagood]

To its credit, Thoro-pattern pointed out that Lukas was 34% tops off the x-x-top and the last 90 days was hitting 30% tops.  Safe to say that Will Take Charge ran a new top.

[richiebee]

Can not and will not argue with numbers/statistics. The problem is how many
numbers and statistics are out there, how they sometimes conflict each other,
and which ones to rely on.

There is the Thoro Pattern for all to see, with a decent sized sample, BUT
this particular animal REGRESSED after each of his previous tops. The negative
0² that WTC ran in the Jimbo Dandy was a rather good move forward
from his previous top, a 2² in the Rebel. Back in three weeks after
the Jimbo after running in all three Triple Crown events. As such, despite the
pattern, I do not think I was going out on a limb to call WTC a bounce
candidate.

Yes, 30% of Lukas runners have run a new top/ last 90 days (43 runner sample).
During approximately the same period (69 runner sample) DWL won at a 4% rate.
When they loaded WTC into the Travers gate, Lukas was 1/38 at the Spa. Have
told JB that a \"last 30 day\" stat would be the bomb. (in addition to, not
replacing, the \"last 90 day\" stat.) My thinking (you don\'t have to agree) if I
am thinking \"bounce\", this opinion will be reinforced if the runner is coming
from a cold barn

[rhagood]

Agree with you, especially the cold stable aspect.  I didn\'t play the race and was looking back for the \"why him\".  30% top is buyable at 10-1, not necessarily a play.  Even Steven Crist wrote an article featuring him but didn\'t outright pick him, just suggested since he finished a length behind Palice Malice that 3x the odds was a good tie-breaker if you were playing.  He actually had the 3 main contenders plus WTC as all A\'s.  Thoughts on the bounce, the older top was back in March and I heard Lukas mention several times this was a large horse, 17 hands and more like a teenager back them.  He had not matured enough during triple crown to compete but of course that did not stop Lukas from running him. He likes to keep the owners happy and attending the big events even when has no realistic chance. Now that he has matured more the last effort took less out of him than before. Overall the race was a pass to me and stepping stone to the fall races.  I see Orb running well against possibly Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold cup.