BC TG Analysis

[justwin]

i wanted to thank Jerry & the team for putting out a fantastic product with spot on analysis for the BC races.

The Saturday races were incredible, there were 2 horses in the money consistently with some 3 out of the top 4 & some 4 out of the top 4. I barely ended up on the positive side of my bets but I would have had a huge day if any of my Saturday leaders in the stretch hold on - Strong Mandate, Gentlemen\'s Bet or Reneesgotzip or Fort Larned. Tg had top 4 in turf sprint & I found a way to not cash any tickets as I keyed Renee on top on all tickets. The Turf Mile saved me keying Wise Dan on top for the tri. I should have played the super in that race which I rarely play but keying wise Dan on top makes it playable and would have made for a big day. Took a shot with my 2nd biggest play of the day on Fort Larned as I thought he was an overlay and I had some winnings in my pocket.

I have to agree with others that have posted on the euro numbers, they do seem on the slow side. Its not easy to compare US horses vs the Euros as they don\'t run against each other often. That was the only flaw I noticed over the 2 days of racing.

Is it too early to start thinking about the Derby Trail?

[Lost Cause]

justwin Wrote:
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>
> Is it too early to start thinking about the Derby
> Trail?

Never too early..
Honor Code..

[drbillym]

I don\'t know Justwin, I Just looked at the redboard analysis and didn\'t see what you are seeing.  I also looked at Jerry\'s result in the BCBC.

[shanahan]

drbillym Wrote:
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> I don\'t know Justwin, I Just looked at the
> redboard analysis and didn\'t see what you are
> seeing.  I also looked at Jerry\'s result in the
> BCBC.


Agree, it wasn\'t anything to jump up about.  Saturday reminded me of the simple BC 101...take the euros on turf only, take G1 winners with speed in the rest.  Not as many prices as I thought there might be with the exception of the undercard Friday.

[justwin]

i won\'t get a chance for the rundown until tonight. I\'m not sure if you bought the seminar but to me the seminar had a couple of horses that were thought of highly that were not included in the separate SA analysis.
I know ZA Approval was talked about positively which rounded out a nice tri and the only 4 horses talked about positively in that race ran 1,2,3,4.
Same with the turf sprint. 5 horses talked about positively including top 4. i believe analysis left off mizdirection but she was obviously talked about positively except for value.
I will post others including the juvy baffert winner which i didn\'t play but keyed on top in tris with strong mandate. didn\'t cash that race but seminar had 2 in the money.

[richiebee]

justwin Wrote:
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> Is it too early to start thinking about the Derby
> Trail?

Much too early for me, especially since I did not see any real Derby prospect
over the weekend. If Shug\'s colt wins the Remsen, he will likely be winter book
fave for the Derby, if he is not already.

Lets talk about the Derby. 20 horse field. No matter what qualifying system is
utilized, you will get 5 or 6 colts who don\'t belong (yes sometimes they win).
You get the inevitable traffic jam which compromises the chances of the colts
who do fit. Then there is the auxiliary gate. I would limit the Derby field to
14, which will never happen. I would also go back to the old (graded stakes
earnings) qualifying system, adding the wrinkle that synthetic and turf
earnings would not be considered.

This years Triple Crown produced 3 feel good stories (Shug, D Wayne, Cot
Campell (Dogwood)), but 3YO HOY is unquestionably Will Take Charge. Query?
If WTC wins the Classic, is he HOY on basis of Travers/Penn Derby/Classic?

Still some big racing coming up this month, with the final big weekend of
racing at Hollywood, which will go dark forever thereafter, and a big
Thanksgiving weekend of racing at Aqueduct, where the lights are flickering.
Maybe some big Thanksgiving racing at Churchill also, but I really do not
follow Kendruggy racing except for the Keeneland meets.

Miff is a better source of information on this than I am, but it has been
reported that if the Casino gambling referendum fails on Tuesday, a Racino
will be installed at Belmont.

[richiebee]

Justwin, I\'m justhavingfun here, because I would never criticize a fellow
Tgenerate or criticize the product (don\'t pull on Superman\'s cape), but Za
Approval, coming off seconds to Wise Dan and Obviously, and perhaps his best
career performance in the Knickerbocker at Belmont, seemed rather obvious.

Neat horse from an outstanding turf trainer who seems to have slipped into the
shadow of Chad Brown.

[miff]

Bee,

At present,most NY politicians riding the powerful Cuomo coat tails. Cuomo\'s full court press on the gambling referendum tomorrow is expected to pass,but you never know, religious groups mounting door to door last minute anti gambling campaign.If the casino referendum fails,an aggressive back up plan is ready to be rolled out,sans full blown casinos.Cuomo wants the NY gambling money to stay in NY State and will do whatever is in his power to accomplish that.

With multi billions in gambling at stake going forward,the Albany lobby crowd in a tizzy, politicians being wooed by every existing gambling enterprise and possible new ones. Racing lobby trying to stave off reduced/capped subsidies, a death knell for NY racing if that happens imo.Old verbal promises to protect NY Racing being somewhat backed off.

NY Lottery Commission hiring consultants to try to stop their empire from collapsing under the weight of impending new casinos. Aqueduct slot owner Genting howling \"what about us\" reportedly spending tonnage lobbying. Possible new casino operators promising \"palaces\"unlike anything seen before.

All existing gambling enterprises in NY State shaking in their boots at the thought of the 800 lb gorilla casino industry opening here.

Sitting on top of the massive NY gambling world will be Paesano Cuomo if the referendum passes. Like the 5 organized crime families once did,Cuomo and the politicians will carve up the money ensuring that all the NY areas get to wet their beaks, so to speak.

All very interesting, but if the referendum passes, I fear that with all the cards, Cuomo may avenge his father\'s failed war with the racing game,maybe hurt it. There should be too much money for that to be necessary but his disdain for the great racing game is too obvious.

There is a plan by NY Racing to combat the negative effect new casinos would have on handle, unsure it will have the backing of the powers that be to make it happen.One example is you could make a bet on a race at the local grocery store,like an ATM type machine, so while Mrs.Bee is shopping, you could sneak in a bet! NYRA also has 7-8 super parlors/restaurants slated to go in the 5 boroughs,past due, timing tough to nail down,my inquiries into opening one in Staten Island without any firm answers.

Mike

[martoon]

Richie...

Why doesn\'t a billion dollar enterprise like the Kentucky Derby custom build a new 20 horse gate?  Embarrassing that they jerry rig a 2 gate system every year and slam the inside horses into the rail.  It would for sure cost less than the other cosmetic construction projects they are doing at CD and would actually help the event itself!

[justwin]

following up on my response on the seminar.
here is the rundown on what i deciphered from jerrys seminar.

juvy-rosalind, artemus, untapable & i used shes a tiger.i recall jerry had some positive comments even though he wasnt using her. to me it was 2 horses in the money.
F & M turf - euro issue
Filly sprint - groupie doll
turf sprin - renee (2nd), tightend (2nd), spring to the sky (out of money), contenders no price Miz (1st) & unbridled (4). i used the contenders. 4 out of top 4. i didn\'t cash anything on the race but to me it was 5 horses and 4 of them ran 1,2,3,4
juvy - strong mandate (3rd), tap it rich, new years day (1st) would jump up on dirt no telling how high . mexicoma at a price - not a great price & smarty echo usable at a price but wonder how much improvement is left.
sprint - justin, private, gentlemens & laugh track. 2nd & 3rd out of the 4. both at a price.
mile turf - wise dan over silentio, silver max & ZA. ZA not listed on bottom line but what was writen was if pairs last has shot against everyone but wise dan. 4 horses ran 1,2,3,4
Classic - 1st, 4th, 5th 6th with the picks.
quick friday recap - marathon - no play. juvy turf 3 horses ran 1-2-3. dirt mile - listed 4 horses - ran 1,2,3. juvy f & m - not close - distaff - off.

i though the seminar had plenty of price horses in the money with very few of the listed horses running bad. to me it was an excellent job. i didn\'t cash most of those as my selections ran 1st & 3rd or 2nd & 3rd in many races but i was rarely out of a race.