Donn

[phil23]

Uncaptured - Has not improved save 1 pt since his 2yo year. No rest in a year so hard to see the jump coming today, also tends to bounce off his tops, which last was.

WTC - Throw back iron horse, dam must be worth a mint now as 2nd super fast colt in a row. 1.5pts or so in weight he spots to others though bring him back to no faster than others at their tops, and that\'s only if he runs his, which he doesn\'t have to, and probably needs to. At the odds he\'s  play against.

REV - Too slow and TAP\'s tend to run their fig early on and not get faster. Definite play against, hopefully at a shorter than his ML odds.

NECK N\' NECK - Reasonable draw, huge back fig to get back to which last sets him up for, Wilkes king of pointing to the big one. Price more than right.

R7 - He bounces off his tops, no reason to think on not much time he won\'t do the same here, especially at the short price.

ROMANSH - Last was huge but Albertrani has smartly given him 3 months rest. On the weights exactly as fast as WTC and that\'s only if WTC runs his best.

VIR - too slow

LEA - is interesting. 1st Samurai\'s do improve 4pts (which is what he\'s done) from 3 to 5 so licence to run his number again. Mott going well L90, 66% pairs or better, not helped by draw but price is solid if ML holds

BC - going the wrong way plus bore in last, far worse pattern that what got him his big one in this last year. Plus Gorder is awful at Gulf in limited sample.

MBull - runs 1 number per year that, at weights could make him competitive for bottom of tri or super. But since he\'s just run it this month and this is 5th in a month, far too slow otherwise, even with the mad russian going guns a blazes at 44% tops right now.

JC - too slow

Summary - Neck\'nNeck is the clear value in the race at anything close to ML. Romansh also a big shot with good rest. Those two on top with Lea (assuming the 10:1 holds up) and WTC for the 3rd spot if he\'s not crazy over bet. If he\'s closer to evens though, toss him completely.

[catcapper]

I am still under my self imposed ban and shall remain so, but  I confess I do peek in now and then…had to get a new password to respond to this…

Will Take Charge….Iron Horse for real…his dam is Take Charge Lady…William Schettine gets credit as her breeder because he purchased Take Charge Lady\'s dam, Felicita, when  she was in foal with Take Charge Lady. Take Charge Lady, damn of WTC and Take Charge Indy, was the foal Felicta was carrying at the time of her purchase. I want to note that Gallaghers Stud of Ghent NY made the mating that produced Take Charge Lady, but due to the owner\'s illness at the time and certain management decisions by others, Felicita was put into the sales ring in foal to Dehere and bearing the foal that would become Take Charge Lady.  Because the mare foaled Take Charge Lady under Schettine\'s ownership, he got credit for the breeding of Take Charge Lady though the mating was by Gallaghers Stud. (And major kudos to Schettine for an astute purchase.) Gallaghers Stud is a small privately owned farm in NY which has always looked to breed for class and not cheap speed. So imagine that bred to Unbridled Song who threw real speed, not cheap speed. This horse is a genuine Champion.

The point of this post is twofold, one to give certain credit where certain credit is due and to emphasize the innate, well thought out class of Will Take Charge.

I would be hard pressed to bet against him, regardless of the odds. If he looks happy and full in the paddock, go for it.

Ciao

Hi JB!
I am disappearing…….

[Silver Charm]

You forgot to mention Kenny McPeek trained Take Charge Lady and D Wayne has Will Take Charge. I am going down to Gulf today and will see both of them. If anyone says go all In I will post....but I doubt it....Phil nailed it in his outstanding analysis. This is not a great spot.to be playing Will Take Charge. Revolutionary is Pletcher and Castellano which means he could certainly win....he also means he will take money. There is some now horse value out there somewhere just not sure where yet. Bill Mott has several in today and could be a force. Groupie Doll is NOT a cinch. Good Luck everyone!!

[alydar61]

Lea looks real interesting to me. Those works at Payson should set him up for a top effort here, 2nd off the layoff.

[TreadHead]

Some pk4 thoughts:

R9 - 4 Dance Craze has some nice sibling number power and both Matz and Prado regularly get long prices home on the GP turf (Matz and Prado both +ROI at GP).

Going to go deep here and use 5 Fancy Ribbons, who also has sibling power on the turf and could improve getting firm ground for the first time, as well as 10 Closer To You, the best looking of the first timers.  9 Ginas Kitten has a buried fig good enough to win and 8 Temper Too goes for Motion who is red hot right now.

R10 - Tough to imagine Maker losing here with 10 Sapphire Blue, seems to be a situation he excels at, and fits on numbers.  Also using 11 Almost an Angel, 2 Starship Pegasus, and 9 Love That Kelly (another Prado ride, moving forward, and with good sibling power).

R11 - At the weight and rail 2 Tetradrachm might have enough speed to get the right trip to win, but I just cant bet against Summer Front.  Am slightly concerned with Amiras Price, given Mott\'s performance recently and Imagining since Shug is 2.68 ROI last 90.  Game time decision on how many others to include with Summer Front.  

R12 - To me, Revolutionary is a cinch to move forward off his 4yr old debut after having a bad start and then being flattered by Falling Sky yesterday.  Pretty sure he gets down to 0 or -1 territory today, but question is whether it will be enough.  If reports on WTC are good, have to include him.  Will probably use Romansh, though not as high as him as others because he\'s only done neg territory once and aren\'t really sure if that broke him or not.

I do also like Lea and might also toss in Bourbon Courage depending on paddock appearance.  Obv something not right last race and some question marks there, but if they fixed it, he has number power to be competitive.

Looking at somewhere in the $150 range for a 50 cent ticket, pending where I land in the last 2 races.  GL to all playing.

[shanahan]

Share many of our thoughts/opinion, here.  But a bit on the cheap side today after getting hammered Fri/Sat in sunny Florida.  More poor wagering than bad handicapping I\'m sorry to say.  In any case - a bit on Bourbon Courage - the partnership was divided on whether to enter after that last one.  However, he\'s working lights out last 3 weeks, and has proven he can run fast enough to win, making him one of 3 that has done it (Rev and WTC the others).

I go just 2 deep in leg one (race 9) with 6,4.  I see Twinspires line has the 6 as a false fav.  In leg two I\'m going 4 deep with the obvious ones you point out - 3,10,11.  While Ward not great off layoff, the works and weight fit. The 4th horse is the Parro contestant - only because the possibility for a longshot exists.  No other rationale.
Leg 3 I\'m taking the 2 Motts and one other  -so, 2,6,7 there.  For the finale, the previous 3 mentioned above.
50 center will cost me $36.

[FrankD.]

I\'ve got the Super Bug after blowing an absoute gift yesterday in the Gulf 6th.
I had to be a wise guy and split Mott/Clement the 1,3/ 2,6,8,9 / 1,3 / ALL
it only came back $610.40 with 8/5, 2/1 running first and second, 3,1,8,9 with the 6th in 5th.

So here goes in the Donn and kudo\'s to Phil for a great rundown of the field:

As much as we need a big horse in the game I\'m just not sold on WTC, a late developer for sure and certainly not the first to get good after the TC races.
However off the bench against others with a recent race over the track, spotting weight and not worthy of 7/5 or so on numbers I\'m taking a stand against him.

REV, River Seven and Lea on top for me / WTC used in the under slots with top 3 and man\'s best friend in a super race, the ALL button.

3,5,8 / 2 / 3,5,8 / ALL

3,5,8 / 3,5,8 / 2 / ALL

3,5,8 / 3,5,8 / ALL / 2

On all 3 tickets we will flip flop the 3,5,8 & ALL in the 2nd & 3rd, 2nd & 4th & 3rd & 4th spots for lesser amounts.

Good luck and a wave good bye to Groupie Doll today,

Frank D.

[Fairmount1]

$.50 pick four, $54. (9x3x2x2)

2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13

with

3, 10, 11

with

6, 8

with

5, 8.  (preference to River Seven for verticals)

Revolutionary\'s Beyer Fig was originally 103.  Downgraded to 93.  Since yesterday, upgraded back to 103.  Good luck.

[aceriley]

Going cheap on the GP Pk4

4,5,6,9 (I like Solis on this bomb #5 by my favorite grass sire Perfect Soul)
2,10
2,5,6
3,8

$24 on a fifty cent play

[phil23]

A few more thoughts on Revolutionary. Just on the face of it, looking at his sheet, he was a solid 2yo who got down to a fast fig, then did not progress at all in the spring of his 3yo year. Then off for 7 months. First out as 4yo is a pair...again on the face of it you\'d think he could certainly move forward.

But three reasons to think not: 1-Pletcher\'s tend to come out running, his sire profile show\'s (in granted very limited sample size) War Pass\'s don\'t develop at 4, they back up a point. And on the dam side, the dam and 3 of her 6 progeny also went backwards as they got older.

And then of course there is the expected price. Does he have a 1 chance in 6 of BOTH running a neg number AND having that be good enough. I\'d say more like 1 in 10.

[sekrah]

Turf very firm, might be an opportunity to bounce Amira\'s Prince.

Boisterous the obvious play here at that price.   Tetradachm drifing to stupid levels has value too.

[ajkreider]

All the turf races being won on the front end. Didn\'t think grass had that strong a bias, but I will play it.  Box 6/2

[sekrah]

I fade European breds on very firm courses.  Hopefully it don\'t bite me here.

[sekrah]

LOL. wow!

[ajkreider]

Or not