Betting mistakes

[ajkreider]

Though this is a handicapping site, I thought it might be worth starting a thread about betting strategies, and mistakes in particular.  I\'m probably not alone in sometimes handicapping correctly, yet not getting paid because silly bets are made (or not made).

I\'ll start with one that got me (again), yesterday.  It\'s not uncommon that I will miscalculate the payouts on the favorites in big fields.  In the Southwest, I correctly had the top two, and thus proceeded to look for longer shots to put under them in exactas, tris and supers.  But I didn\'t play the Tapiture/Strong Mandate exacta, thinking it wouldn\'t pay enough to make it worthwhile.  Of course it paid $30, and even a small saver bet would have got me at least whole.  

Others?

[TGJB]

I once did a short list of guidelines, which can be found in the Archives section (though poorly summarized). The key element is identifying (articulating) what your opinion really is, then betting accordingly.

In this case it sounds like your opinion was that it was a two horse race. So why make it about other horses?

[ajkreider]

I guess it comes down to being greedy and not paying attention.  Playing the two favorites (SM was even money) usually yields pretty poor payouts.  And hey, if you\'ve got the top two, you\'re just a couple of horses away from a payday.

[billk5300s]

I think the biggest mistake that I make is sinking too much money into trifecta\'s.  I usually have a decent ROI on exacta\'s but I\'ve considered not sinking money into tri\'s in races where 1 or 2 shorter price horses are likely to reach.  What\'s wrong with a $20 exacta box that pays $14.00 with a 7-5 and 3-1 that are likely to get there?  I end up investing $20 into the tri and often times break even because the 3rd choice reaches.  My other issue is betting too many races when I\'m ahead instead of pulling the profits and calling it a day!!!

[FrankD.]

What\'s wrong with a $20 exacta box that pays $14.00 with a 7-5 and 3-1 that are likely to get there?

It\'s called betting a delicatessen to win a pickle!

[billk5300s]

Good one FrankD!!!

[paniolo]

If you are going to play exactas I recommend computing a table of Probability of Winning in Percent and Cutoff Values in dollars for a 2$ exacta. Here are the data from \"Betting at the Racetrack\"  by Ziemba and Hausgh for a 7-5 over a 3-1 for New York when take out was 17% (circa1985) for 18.5% the message is the same, don\'t betc

    7-5 over a 3-1 exacta has a 10.7% chance of winning and the cut of value (price at which the bet would be of value) is $22. These numbers cannot reasonably  
be exact for the 3.1 may be a 3.4 to 1, round off, etc.  But the difference is pretty much in the noise.
   
I\'m fortunate to have a dogeared copy of the book, contact me if your interested in seeing the math to construct your own table for NY or any other track.

[Ill-bred]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>  The key element is identifying
> (articulating) what your opinion really is, then
> betting accordingly.


Perfectly said.