Derby

[big18741]

Cairo Prince has a nice looking sheet so far but looks questionable(female family) on pedigree at ten furlongs.

Remsen was hardly a true test at nine furlongs given the ridiculously slow pace and even though he jogged in the Holy Bull he looked like he was done running at the wire.

I haven\'t been wowed by any of the three year olds.
Two best races IMO out of this crop have been last year.

Shared Belief in the Cash Call on cushion ran like a freak but he hasn\'t worked in 53 days and went bad training on dirt.So he isn\'t even on the radar as far as running in the Derby.I have trouble understanding why he\'s even in Pool 3.

Strong Mandate Hopeful in the slop was awesome but in three subsequent races he hasn\'t come close to repeating the effort.Pedigree is certainly there for the distance but he\'s yet to show he can run fast going long.Maybe we\'ll see it in March or April.Or maybe he just freaked in the slop sprinting.

Two things about Lukas:

1)Some of his better horses had some ugly looking sheets/races prior to getting good.

2)When he gets them good they tend to stay that way for a few.

[phil23]

re CP - Given we know what he ran in his last at this point, for his derby chances would it be better for him to just pair that in Florida Derby, as opposed to an explosion into negative territory, and save that explosion for the big day? Knowing that by just pairing he\'ll probably be more in the position Normandy\'s Invasion was last year (great pattern but a couple of points slower than a few others) assuming a few of the others move forward into negative territory between now and 1st Sat in May.

As well as paired tops do coming into the Derby pattern wise, I think I\'d take that...in the you want them to run huge on derby day, not the race just before (or the race after).

I wonder how aware Kierren is of this (not wanting the big one 1 race too soon)? Given his 14points in derby standings, he really in all likelihood gets in even with a 3rd in Floriday Derby (20 pts for 34 total).

[ajkreider]

There\'s a decent chance he has enough already.  10 points got you in last year.