Prediction for ROTW

[covelj70]

Jerry and the boys will pick the FOY and take a stand against Commissioner as the ML fav.

Not that there\'s anything wrong with that (for this race), I\'m just jonesing for some action and none of the races are good enough to play until Saturday so I\'m left making predictions about stuff that is irrelevant!

[Silver Charm]

I will be down there....At High Noon. Great Card and another at the Fairgrounds. The weather has been fantastic here all week. I predict mulitple tough trips and GP and FG creating more confusion on the Derby Trail. And that is what makes it so fun!!

[Box]

Just glanced through the numbers real quick and agree its a Smorgasbord at Gulf. Good luck in your races they don\'t make anything easy down there.

[covelj70]

Thanks alot. They sure as heck don\'t.

It\'s like Saratoga without the big purses.

Funny, on first read through the tgs, I have the exact opposite read that I had before the tgs were up.

I thought I was hopeless in the first and super live in the last and instead, its the exact opposite.

I knew the numbers we had run before but that\'s one hell of a maiden claimer in the last. Jesus. There\'s 5 in there faster than us. Can\'t even drop and win down there.

I guess that shows the value of the tgs, at least from the perspective of giving us a different angle vs. the consensus using pps only.

[TreadHead]

Isn\'t there a big chance for rain on Sat at GP?

[Tavasco]

The Weather Channel reports 20% chance of rain, 11 mph wind, 72% humidity and expected high of 81 degrees (feels like 90 [in the sun])

The rain chance is about a thunderstorm, which is a constant FL afternoon threat whenever the temp gets above eighty. A thunderstorm, if one comes, typically will rain on one race and occur between 4:00 - 4:45.

So if it rains (?) race 9 & 10 The Davona Dale & Canadien Turf most likely races affected (IMO).

One of the Pletcher\'s to win the 9th and Maker probable to win 11th & 12th the 10th race becomes key to me. I toss Rosario & Bravo as overbet under performers. I toss Carmouche as unable to get the right trip or perform when expected to. This leaves me with #\'s 2,3 & 4 to use vertically and horizontally.

Just an opinion and by going against Reload/McGaughey and the NY bettors I hope to help my exacta price and underwrite my pic 3 and pic 4. Of the preps, I prefer the Risen Star as less chalky and Quick Indian to surprise.

[ajkreider]

If this kind of bias holds up:

FG Charts

then Quick Indian isn\'t the play (Rise Up, maybe).

[toppled]

I doubt it will be the FOY because it\'s 1/4th of a special.  My guess is something at FG or the GP 6th, which I\'ll be really interested to see if they run that race faster than the FOY.  
I have only 1 Derby future & that\'s on Commissioner.  Now he doesn\'t have to win, but he has to have a real jump up figure here, similar to Orb\'s FOY. Otherwise, he\'s probably toast for the Derby, because he\'s either not fast enough for this class or he\'ll go into the other category, a Pletcher jump up in the final Derby prep, which history hasn\'t been kind to.
Now Orb had more races at this point, but there are some similarities. Orb went from pair up 7.5s to a 1 last year.  Commissioner only has the single similar top, but has never gone backwards in 3 races.  I expect a big jump up from Commissioner, which he\'s going to need to get near General A Rod or Wildcat Red.

[Tavasco]

You make an excellent point! I\'m convinced.

In the first today the #4 (outside) never could get (stay) past the #5 (inside) resulting in a dead heat. An interesting visual representation of the bias.

Sayonara Quick Indian.