ROTW

[justwin]

I\'m going with In Trouble. i think the 1 by Uncle Sigh & Samraat will set them back for a while. We already saw a bounce off the 1 by Uncle Sigh and I don\'t think he will go forward again anytime soon. Now its Samraat\'s turn to go back off the 1. In trouble won both races quite easy and should get a number better than the 2yo #\'s which should make him a winner. Playing Harpoon for 2nd. Xtrasexy is the one I\'m worried about.

George

[FrankD.]

It\'s nice to see the Gotham have some relevance and we have 2 nice NY Breds who may win some open company stakes down the road.

Uncle Sigh was definitely taken out of his element in his last race but had no choice as Sam would have been lose on the lead. I saw an interview with Contessa  that morning on the OTB show up here and he said he would gun and not let Sam get lose.

Noble Cornerstone would be an interesting horse if not coupled but this will be a 7/5 or 6/5 bet against combo. Ward is awfully high on his horse but looks like a sprinter to me. Sammy spotting weight, definitely a bounce candidate and Xtrasexy will go from outside him and apply plenty of pressure.

Harpoon is the best bred horse in the race, is it the year of the Tapit\'s? I know, I know the 11 post on the inner tube around 2 turns without a ton of early speed!!!
I love his pattern, not the typical Pletcher too fast early syndrome, he has caught 2 off tracks and a lot of trouble in his career so far.

Does TAP comes north for 50 Derby points; At 7/1 or better I\'ll pay to find out? Uncle Sigh gets the best of the weights, he\'s inside and should sit a perfect trip so that is the exacta box with a win bet on Harpoon if the odds are correct and he will be the key in my pick 4.

4,5,6,7,8 / 2,4 / 4,10 / 2,3,4,7,8    press the same ticket singling the 10

All / 2,4 / 10 / All

[covelj70]

Frank, I thought you mocked my Harpoon pick a few days ago, no?

Am I missing something?

[jimbo66]

Jim

That might have been me, not frank.

I think harpoon is a horrific pick. (Just put him in the winners circle)

Wide post, no tactical speed, and phony wide ground loss loaded figures. (Not saying they are \"wrong\" just that they overstate his ability because his lack of tractability make it such that he figures to often get that lousy trip)

Jim

[TreadHead]

I cant think of a wagering angle I\'ve lost more on that expecting a bounce out of an early-in-the-year stakes 3yr old that doesn\'t end up happening.  To me, the likely probability of SamSlowNYBredRaat and Uncle Sigh finishing in the tri destroys any hope of value, so I\'m passing.  Good luck to anyone taking a shot.

[Wrongly]

Jim

In my last post I really wasn\'t kidding about Extrasexyhipzter but that was before I saw the 7lbs.  I love those small pairs!  Need better than the 4-1 morning line but being a PA bred who\'s last race was in MD, maybe he gets over looked.

[TreadHead]

per several tweets

[covelj70]

Ah, yes, sorry about that Frank. My bad.

Jimbo, I just bet him so for many reasons, you are probably right that its a horrific pick!

My other play today is Pleuven in the palm beach.

[Bet Twice]

I\'w with you on this one - very tough race to have a strong opinion on.  You either need to assume that horses will bounce or those stretching out for the first time will improve, or both.  With the exception of a couple, anyone could win.  I\'m leaning towards the one but not enough to invest, at least nothing more than a few bucks to have a rooting interest in it.

[FrankD.]

Jim,

In retrospect I wish I did throw daggers at it!!!
How wrong can 2 men be?
Thank God the pick 4 play was not too deep and at an insane 4/1 off the ML a win bet was not in order.I\'m sure many noticed the win pool changes in the last 2 minutes; US from 6/1 to 7/2, the entry from 3/2 up to 2/1.

Samraat is a very nice horse and not just for a NY Bred, spotting 5 to 7 lbs to all except the non speed factor Extrasexy, a tough stretch duel again, you have to like this one as well as any who have run.

Good luck,

Frank D.

PS Jim C. these shoulders are very broad and can take it; after all Mrs. Bee has accused me if giving her Richie his first beer and guiding him to the windows for his first bet!!!!!  Talk about heavy guilt!

[jimbo66]

Jim

No red board, but he was a horrific pick, only eclipsed by being an awful bet at 7-2 or whatever he went off at. Turn the page.   However, the punch line is yet to come.  Have already heard more than one person talk about harpoons wide trip and how he came storming late in the stretch and had a monster gallop out. Will get another wide and big figmand will be underlaid next time out.   Heard tvg\'s paul LaDopa gushing over him seconds after the finish.

As for the ny breds, they ran quite well, particularly Samraat.  I may have to give up trying to beat him.  Figured the 2 and 4 would out trip him and used only them, pressing uncle sigh.  They did out trip him.   Samraat 3 wide all the way around the track, spotting 7 pounds and won handily.  It was close but it appeared he was under quite a bit less urging. Tough horse.  Doesn\'t need a trip to win.

Richie bee, you owe the NY Breds an apology.  They CRUSHED the out of town hotshot from the Pletcher stable.  Could have been worse, u called have been silly enough to call Samraat a ny bred slow rat, like my friend tread, aka the \"broken clock\"

Jim

[TreadHead]

LOL Jimbo, sorry my homage to Taleofslowrati (ekati) was lost on you. I clearly liked the horse prior to the race and think he\'s talented.

Regardless of what happens in the Wood, he\'s not one I\'m interested in for the derby at all right now, but could still show a lot of success in other 8-9F races.  Of course, there aren\'t many standouts right now either and maybe when the dust is settled he is a few points better than any one else out there, but that\'s not where my money is.  

Don\'t like his breeding or the fact that he is prepping at AQU, and I\'d like to see how he responds to a more complex pace scenario other than just having to sit right off a dueling pair.  To me, he has all the makings of yet another horse that looks great for the derby coming out of the AQU bracket and then laying an egg at 10F in May at CD.

Trivia question, when is the last time a horse that prepped at AQU/AQI finished in the tri in the Derby?

[Boscar Obarra]

Not sure I get this anti NY Bred bias. Once a performance level has been established, who cares?

 Is there some bad karma that is supposed to follow NY breds around, impeding success, and if so, where does it show up in the TG database?

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

The NYBs put on a great show in the Gotham. Dems good hosses.

I do not know if the NW2LT Harpoon is a hotshot. He couldn\'t beat NW2LT
Financial Mogul, who looked a little uncomfortable on the inside, in and
amongst horses, as Tom Durkin might say. No excuses for either of these
NW2LTs. OK I\'ve said NW2LT 3 times, now I can say that I do not think that
the Gotham was a very strong prep race in terms of depth of competition.
In terms of the speed and gameness of the the top three finishers, it was a
good gut wrenching prep.

In Trouble was extremely game coming off a long layoff and routing for the
first time.

To answer someone\'s question, the last Derby winner to prep at AQ/AQI was
Funny Cide. Like Uncle Sigh (Indian Charlie), FC was sired by a Kentucky
based stallion, Distorted Humor. These are what I call back door New
York Breds. Since 2000, two Wood winners, FuPeg and Funny, have won the Derby.
Smarty Jones won the Count Fleet over the inner before shipping to Hot
Springs for the bulk of his Derby preparation. I can not recall a Derby
winner who prepped exclusively in NY.

Samraat was foaled on Long Island I believe. His sire, Noble Causeway I think
has now produced 5 stakes winners from about 1400 starters. 4 of those SWs
are named Samraat. To put this in some perspective, at the time of FC\'s Derby
win, Distorted Humor had 14 SWs from about 230 starters. To be fair, Sam\'s
success probably means Noble Causeway will get the opportunity to cover some nicer mares.

Samraat ran well spotting 3 and 7 pounds to his main rivals. He seemed to sit
a little further off the pace than in the Withers. But where does he go
from here off two tough races in 29 days? Points wise, I believe he is
already in the Derby gate. Does he go full out in the Wood on April 5? Does
he go at all? Does NYRA write a 9 furlong NYB stake race for 3YO and up at AQ
where Sam would get a weight break against some competition hustled in by the
racing secretary?

Samraat has two graded stakes wins now, albeit over the inner tube. His
numbers stack up favorably with his potential Derby rivals. He has what some
handicappers call tactical speed. A big factor for me in Derby wagering is
2YO foundation, and Sam has it. Given all those factors, and take this as an
apology if you wish Jim, he would certainly not be left out of my Derby \"uses\"
in Derby day horizontal wagers.

But take this all with a grain of salt. Consider the source. Given the wild
success (?) of \"Horseplayers\", Esquire Network has approached me about doing a
show which will feature me being interrogated about my racetrack experience
and wagering philosophies. While I am being questioned, I will be quaffing
cheap beer in cans while folding old programs into the shape of horses.

The working title for the show is \"Truly Defective.\"

[richiebee]

Boscar:  

Good thoroughbreds can come from anywhere. What is better than a backyard
bred like Smarty Jones rising to the top echelons? What is more fun than when
a mare is accidentally impregnated by a teaser stallion and the result is a
brilliant! runner, like Allen Jerkens\' wickedly fast Kelly Kip? (Lets
face it, a teaser stallion is the ultimate \"wing man\").

I have always wanted to research and see if any competitive thoroughbreds,
good or otherwise, were ever foaled within the city limits of NYC.

NYBs show up at all major racing circuits. I think there were at least three
G1 winning NYB fillies campaigned in 2013: Cluster of Stars, Discreet Marq,
and another turf filly I think trained by Chad Brown whose name I can not
remember.

NYBs compete against and beat open company in Canada, in California, in
Illinois, in Florida, in Arkansas, in Texas, and I am fairly certain on other
circuits which I do not follow.

On the other hand there are NYB restricted races. Sometimes the restricted
NYB races produce good stock like Funny Cide, like Uncle Sigh, like Samraat,
like Finger Lakes based Fio Rito, who became the first NYB to win a Grade 1
stake (Whitney 1981). (Fio Rito is buried in the infield at Finger Lakes).

There are a lot of NYB restricted races run at NYRA tracks. A lot of these
races feature a lot of runners who are referred to here as NYB slow rats.
They would not be competitive and therefore would not be bred were it not for
the NYB restricted race program. These restricted races have the twofold
effect of decreasing the overall value of the NY bred and eroding the day to
day quality of racing at NYRA.