Bayern out

[covelj70]

So much for me not losing the other half of my bankroll from last weekend until the first Saturday in May when my derby futures plays got torn up.  

what a tough game, was really looking forward to seeing this horse run this weekend.

I feel very badly for the owner, he has put alot into the game and deserves a big big horse.  I don\'t know him personally but anyone who has made a big committment to the game like he has deserves some luck.  

I know they are saying he still has time to make the derby but I am a believer that everything has to go exactly right all the way along the derby trail to have the foudnation to win the thing

he was the one horse so far that had shown real brilliance even though he was completely untested

I am bummed about this for reasons way beyond my silly future bets

here\'s to hoping another star emerges this weekend that shows some real brillance

[TMW]

Kaleem Shah is having a tough go of it in horse racing with Baffert as his trainer. Three of Baffert\'s sudden deaths were owned by Shah. Also, his horse, Tweebster, was euthanized after breaking down in a cheap claimer. And, now this.

As you say, tough game to own horses (and to make KY Derby future bets).

[TGJB]

Everything did not go right for Victory Gallop-- he got a late start due to being sick, and after he won the Arkansas Derby we were still considering going straight to the Preakness. It depends WHEN something goes wrong.

[covelj70]

Maybe my memory is fuzzy here but I thought victory gallop won the Belmont, not the derby?

Unfortunately last week, they weren\'t offering Belmont futures

Come to think of it, maybe it is fortunate because I would have likely wasted even more money!

Those orb futures bets last year are going to have me chasing stupid futures plays for the rest of my life. Dumb dumb dumb!

[TMW]

Speaking of dumb future bets (I have MexiKoma at 100-1) Buffett is offering $1 billion to anyone who plays a perfect March Madness Bracket. Hard not to fill one out (even though it is probably a way for his Quicken Loans to access your email address) but the odds are 1 in 9.2 quintillion to have a perfect bracket.

A quintillion is a 1 with 18 zeros following it.

[covelj70]

This is great. I love this.

[Silver Charm]

Its been a rough 60 days for Baffert. I don\'t know if I have ever seen a Derby standout picture more blurred 60 days out than this year.
#guessinggame

[justwin]

Is that 1 in 9.2 Quintillion assuming each game is a 50/50 game? This is not the case in this pool for the 1 & 2 seeds early on.

[TGJB]

You\'re relying on ground loss to make your case? He ran a winning race.

[TMW]

That is actually a fair question. To quote a noted mathematician in USA Today --


\"The 1 in 9.2 quintillion number is straight mathematics. It figures out how many possible ways the 63 game results on your bracket could be filled out. (Two to the sixty-third power.)

But it doesn\'t account for standard basketball logic, like No. 1 seeds always advancing in the first round or tournament champions usually having a top-four seed or Duke\'s dual advantage of having a legend like Coach K and never getting called for a blocking foul. If you know something about the NCAA tournament, the odds of a perfect bracket are more like 1 in 128 billion. (That\'s according to DePaul math professor Jay Bergen.)

Using that number, if everyone in the United States filled out a bracket, we\'d see a perfect one every 400 years.\"


March Madness is the Breeder\'s Cup of Basketball. I love it. Now back to the horses...