The general consensus is indeed that the Rainbow 6 is a sucker bet. Andy Beyer has said as much, as has Steve Crist, who advised not playing the bet unless there’s a 7 figure carryover or it’s the last day of the meet.
Their reasoning? The fact that 30% of the pool, after the initial 20% takeout, goes into the jackpot pool unless there\'s a single winner, resulting in what they see as an exorbitant 44% effective takeout. Critics like Beyer argue this makes the Rainbow 6 a worse investment than the lottery and that it’s pointless to fight such a takeout.
But are they right? Or is Jim’s observation earlier in this thread that “the 6/6 payouts have been pretty decent” more accurate?
The best way to answer this question is by comparing the actual Rainbow 6 payouts to those predicted based on the equivalent win parlays. As some may recall from my posts in a thread last fall (
Robo Betting), I’ve tracked actual vs. predicted Pick 6 payouts for a number of meets over the years. I’ve also been tracking the Rainbow 6 payouts at GP since they began.
Here are the results for the 10 meets (from Aqu/Bel/Sar and Hol/SA/Dmr) that I’ve tracked over the years, for both noncarryover and carryover days, along with the results for the Rainbow 6 (based on an equivalent $2 bet). To be conservative, for the Rainbow 6 I’ve excluded all lone winner carryover days and mandatory payout days, which are almost always massive overlay payouts relative to the equivalent win parlays.
NYRA/SoCal Noncarryover days (10 meets, 290 days): Median Payout: 27% higher than equivalent win parlay - $14,092
NYRA/SoCal Carryover days (10 meets, 102 days): Median Payout: 78% higher than equivalent win parlay - $31,082
GP Rainbow 6 (12/2/12-3/15/14, 158 days): Median Payout:
98% higher than equivalent win parlay - $30,448
That 98% figure is not a typo. At $30,448, the average Rainbow 6 payout is almost
twice the equivalent win parlay. That’s over
3 times the value seen on a typical noncarryover day at the NYRA/SoCal circuits, and over 25% more value than that seen on a typical
carryover day.
How can this be? How can such a derided “sucker” bet be offering more value than even carryover days at the major circuits??
Well for one thing, the bet doesn’t pay out for consolation tickets. At NYRA/SoCal circuits, 25-30% of the pool is distributed amongst those who correctly select 5 of 6 winners. This one fact alone largely offsets the 30% takeout for the Rainbow 6 jackpot. And while one could argue that consolation tickets account for a big portion of a horseplayer’s income from Pick 6 wagers, it can also be argued that consolation tickets are a relative pittance compared to Pick 6 payouts, and that they act as a huge additional tax on Pick 6 winners because winners must share 25-30% of what are rightfully their winnings with the other 99% of bettors who didn’t hit the Pick 6 but managed only 5 winners.
You may ask how then, with the insidious takeout for consolation tickets at the NYRA/SoCal circuits and the notorious jackpot takeout in the Rainbow 6, can any of these bets routinely pay more than the equivalent win parlay?
The reason is that you only get hit with the takeout once. And it’s part of the reason why, even with such exorbitant takeouts, the Pick 6 is still a great bet (the other reason being that your edge is multiplicative, which means you can string together horses with small edges or even slight negative expectations in the win pool and still come up with a positive expectation on the overall bet).
At SoCal tracks, where the win takeout is 15.43% and the Pick 6 takeout is 23.68% with a 30% payout to consolations, the Pick 6 should pay (1-.2368)x(1-.30)/(1-.1543)^6 -1 = 46% more than the equivalent win parlay on noncarryover days. NYRA tracks used to be around the same until recent years - now that the takeout on noncarryover days has been lowered to 16%, the bet has a much higher expectation of 79% more than the win parlay. Of course carryovers at both circuits offer substantially more value than noncarryover days due to the “free” money in such pools.
In the GP Rainbow 6, where the win takeout is 17% and the Pick 6 takeout is 20% with a 30% takeout for the jackpot pool, the Pick 6 should pay (1-.20)x(1-.30)/(1-.17)^6 -1 = 71% more than the equivalent win parlay.
So just based on the math alone, it’s clear that the Rainbow 6 offers better value than noncarryover days at NYRA/SoCal circuits (+71% vs +46%). The study results shown above support this conclusion. But they also show that the Rainbow 6, at 98% more than the win parlay, is offering even better value than the math would indicate.
Why might this be? There are two big reasons:
1. As dreamers focus on low probability combinations of underlaid longshots in their quest for the elusive jackpot, the favorite-longshot bias has never been more in effect and is creating tremendous value for astute handicappers playing logical contenders.
2. So-called “sharpies,” having deemed it a sucker bet, have shunned the wager, making for much easier competition and therefore great value.
There are also a number of other advantages the Rainbow 6 has over its NYRA/SoCal brethren:
1. Deep-pocketed whales like the computer guys cannot simply buy the pool when the carryover gets large the way they can with traditional Pick6\'s, because they won\'t get the jackpot unless they have the only winning ticket.
2. The $.20 minimum bet levels the playing field for everyone. It\'s no longer a \"big fish\" vs. \"little fish\" game - players with limited bankrolls can now put in fully fleshed out tickets rather than basically making daily contributions to the pool with their $100 tickets full of obvious contenders that even if hit result in tiny underlaid payouts.
3. The $.20 minimum wager also greatly lowers the chance of players overbetting their bankrolls and subjecting themselves to gambler\'s ruin.
4. With roughly 50% of the payouts falling below $5,000, the $.20 minimum wager prevents Uncle Sam from confiscating your gross winnings. Regular Pick6 players are therefore less likely to wind up sitting on their hands and knees at the end of the year waiting for their tax refund.
5. If a player happens to be the lone winner, the takeout is only 20%. HUGE overlays often result after only a few days of the jackpot building. Payoffs 10-20 times greater than the equivalent win parlay, involving easily haveable sequences, are very achievable.
So contrary to popular opinion, this is far from the sucker bet everyone thinks it is. Other than the 14-15% Pick5’s currently being offered at many tracks, it’s arguably one of the best bets in racing, even without considering the jackpot potential. And if you do happen to be the lone winner once in awhile, which happens often early on before the jackpot builds, that’s just an added bonus.
Rocky R.
