BCBC Qualifier

[kmart4503]

I\'ve been hanging around this board since the first time I used Thorograph back in 2012 in preparation for my first trip to the Derby(when I had no idea what I was really looking at).  And I\'ve been using Thorograph ever since.

This year I\'m going back to the Derby and have been following all the races and getting more involved in things I haven\'t in the past, like contests. Last weekend I participated in a BCQualify event and using Thorograph managed to sneak into the top 10% with a total of $77.00.  This is the first time I\'ve ever entered a contest.

My question-  I know there are a ton of people on this board with lots of experience so I thought I would reach out for advice.  Now that it\'s down to 84 entries competing for 7 spots in the 2014 BCBC-  Should I adjust my strategy?  I focused mainly on 4-1 to 7-1 horses in the first round.  Do I need to find longer odds horses to make it(I know you can\'t say for sure, but in a general sense)? I\'m assuming a similar result won\'t get me in the top 7.  Any thoughts, comments, or personal experiences would be greatly appreciated.  


Thanks,

KMart

[kmart4503]

Thanks for the advice....

[elkurzhal]

84 entries and 7 spots is about the same % as the qualifier, your plan should be about the same.  May have to adjust if 7 player catch a early price though.   You should be able to look back at some previous results or some of the results on horsetourneys with the same format to get a feel for the totals and variation.   ultimately the races will decide, if the races they pick are chalky the totals will be lower...

[CHOWDERMAN]

the first time you see a longshot you like that might be out of your odds comfort zone, don\'t hesitate to pull the trigger...you\'re going up against alot of sharpies, you;re going to need to hit one of those and then adjust accordingly...

play this like you\'re not going to get another shot at it....however, if you like a 5-1 shot and you can\'t make a case for a longshot, stick to the 5-1 that you have confidence in....

you have 10 or 12 races,  play with confidence, go with your gut, and near the end you may need to scamble...good luck

[Rick B.]

kmart4503 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Any thoughts, comments, or personal
> experiences would be greatly appreciated.  

My #1 rule for contests: \"Tote Board Be Thy Guide\".

If you like two or more horses in the same race, and
just can\'t pass (for whatever reason), ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS let the tote board decide.

Use the longest price horse. DO NOT waver on this.

(Some here are rolling their eyes...\"Duh!\"...\"Thanks,
Mr. MOTO!\". Trust me when I tell you that it just
isn\'t that simple.)

Good luck to you.

[kmart4503]

Thanks everyone... I appreciate the input!

[kmart4503]

I cannot believe this! Thanks JB for A great product!

Kmart

[CHOWDERMAN]

awesome dude....congrats....wait til you get to the breeders cup.....that is an awesome tournament....enjoy.....

[CHOWDERMAN]

see that you hit 3 of your last 4 and your final 2...fill us in about your decision making process....were they thorograph standouts...thanks....

[kmart4503]

Thanks, I\'m really looking forward to it.  And thanks again for the thoughts earlier in the week!

To be honest it was all Thorograph and a LOT of luck.

Last 4 races-

Going into the last for I was in 9th-10th place

Oaklawn 8- Once Boji Moon and Bagg O\'Day scratched I knew it was a one horse race for me with Brewing.  Even a bounce off the previous race I felt would still be enough.

Turfway Park 11- I was playing Asserting Bear, I also liked Harry\'s Holiday, but went with Asserting Bear because of the inside post.  It was a tough one though, but looking back the most important thing that happened was We Miss Artie getting up for the win. If not, I probably don\'t qualify.

Santa Anita 8- I liked Big Wags and Tucker\'s Point going into the race.  And had no time to take a final look after The Spiral. So I went with my original thought and took Big Wags because of the weight, post position,and a good figure and solid numbers to run back to. It was a huge win where I finally let myself think I had a good shot at making it.

Santa Anita 9- I really liked Royal Banker, but I was in 3rd and only up by $6 on 7th place.  I figured I need to make sure I hit the board and odds are I would have a shot.  I liked Enterprising\'s figures, pattern, and post, but hated the odds.  But at the end of the day I decided to just roll with the favorite and see where everything shook out. Luckily Enterprising got up to win by a nose in dramatic fashion.

This all happened at Lonestar\'s Bar and Book surrounded by no one else that knew what was going on, much less why I was so excited for an odds on favorite to pull out a win.

All in all, a great experience and I\'m so excited for the Breeder\'s Cup and like I said before all Thorograph and a LOT of luck.

Kmart

[drbillym]

Congrats KMart.  I, too, benefitted from Miss Artie winning as I finished 2nd in an xpressbet contest.  I realize that if that 15-1 shot hits, I get nuttin rather than $5000.  We both won on a day that there were no bombers, and I would think that on BCBC day you will have to hit some longer prices.  But for now, Carpe Diem!  And I won\'t complain about losing a photo for at least another month!

[BenevolentDictator]

Congratulations-  Fantastic tournament and they make sure you are taken care of..  Be sure you go to the party at the Staple Center Thursday night.  
Dennis