sunland derby

[justwin]

2 horses stand out on tg figures but i have some reservations with both. one is coming back on 2 weeks rest so i expect some regression and the other is out of a sprinter with ap indy on the female side. after these 2 it could be a crap shoot. any thoughts on how my concerns play at a track like sunland.

also, do the tg #\'s hold up at sunland or does the altitude have a major effect?

[phil23]

It does, at first glance look rather uninteresting...ie the 2 fastest horses are the likely faves. Dunno...maybe Garen on the pedigree angle - by Street Cry out of Invasor\'s Mom. Toss MH due to short rest (though with BB we see like with Hopp last week that that can not work out so well), keep Chitu, toss TCat and Commish if they\'re both at short odds and something like Chitu over Garen?  I think it\'s a just watch don\'t bet kind of race imo.

[justwin]

I think Garen will move forward. 5 pt difference may be too much to make up even with MH regressing. I have to play the race cause I\'m in the TVG road to the derby contest. Only $5 across though. I probably won\'t play the race either. odds may determine if I take a small shot.

[Tavasco]

One never knows but when MH can not finish at shorter distances why play him to do something he\'s never done @ short odds?

Pletcher is a high % trainer and most will avoid Global Strike as unproven and slow. Yet he has won and run second to a pretty good one, at today\'s distance! 8/1 morning interests me and he has passed horses albeit on turf.

Miller must like Garen 10/1 m/l is generous but probably needs to be able to pass horses late with the kaikazee\'s in here!

What you need is a little luck, like Kmart, so Good Luck Man!

[justwin]

i\'m going with Garen here, odds seem right, won pretty much in hand so his figure would have been better if pushed and extra distance shouldn\'t be a problem,  
3 yo\'s usually keep improving this time of year so with the inside post its worth the shot over chitu who is on the outside.