You\'re right this is his best campaign but as good as he\'s been this year the negatives remain. He\'s bounced or laid off after every top since age 4 excepting his last a pair-up. Now slight new tops are often a sign of burgeoning form but that\'s more apt the younger the horse. Thoro-Pattern gives him a 24% chance to run a new top and that might get it done at 12-1 or so, the odds I see. But there are lot of horses within a point so that\'s not as juicy an overlay as one might think initially, especially since a pair-up is much more likely. Favored De Kock runner Shea Shea beat this guy last time and he\'s got 2 faster, 1 even and 4 more efforts within a point of Ahtoug\'s best. Shea Shea is much more likely to run his number than Ahtoug is to run his. Shea Shea\'s Thoro-Pattern is not pertinent due to the layoff.
Berlindo Di Tiger is more intriguing to me. He\'s got one figure that gives him a big chance to win. It came 3rd out last year, the same spot he\'s in here and his last at GP is pointing back to it. Now obviously the ship, new track, etc. is a big unknown but I feel I\'m getting a better shot for my money at 30-1 or so. And you could protect under the favorite and do okay.
Lastly for now, I don\'t want to talk you off a 12-1 shot. That\'s a sufficient price.
