I don't think the derby winner has had his final prep yet

[covelj70]

I haven\'t been impressed with any of the horses the last few weekends

Either the numbers have been slow and/or they have had the perfect trips

I think the New York horses are very weak (not flattered by In Trouble yesterday) and the Florida Derby was the weakest I have seen in a while. The Fair Grounds horses couldn\'t be less interesting for me in terms of the Derby. VIT had the easiest pace of any horse on the day yesterday and he still couldn\'t come home in a good time.

The best three year olds this year are in California. Cali Chrome and Candy Boy are both very impressive and the west coast horses have been shipping and winning (ie Hopportunity and Chitu)

I expect Social Inclusion to put on a show against a group of weak horses in the Wood next weekend and assuming he holds together (not a given, there\'s a reason he has only run 2 races in his life), he is the type of brilliant talent that could win the Derby off of three starts

If Social Inclusion doesn\'t hold together physically, I expect the California horses to dominate the derby with either the top few in the Santa Anita Derby and/or the California horses that will likely ship to Arkansas and win the Arkansas Derby to be the one(s) to focus on on the first Saturday in May.

Would love everyone\'s thoughts

[miff]

Jim,

Tend to agree.Social Inclusion wears fronts and not being sold is a flag,imo,has to ship,hook a tenacious fighter in Samraat while not on GP surface which he obviously loves.Wood defines SI for sure.

Cali Chrome horse another one that has to ship and win off the SA surface.Candy Boy tripped out in last, need to see his next to better gauge.Cali has some with gas for sure Chitu seems to have upside, distance a ? Bayern is fast, missed time.

Very tricky and will really get weird if the main players in the SA Derby and Wood don\'t run well.

Good Luck,
Mike

[covelj70]

Mike,

Agree with everything you said


Cali Chrome breezes like a freak job at Los Al so I\'m less worried about surface but am worried about the 1 1/4 there.

Commissioner only dark horse in this group I like.

He\'s only one I have seen that truly wants the distance and needs 1 1/4 to run his best race.

He will likely earn his way into the Derhy in Ark and I like him to make noise at the distance assuming he\'s a price. He ran ok in sunland after that brek. Plus, JB hates him so that makes me like him even more (lol)!!!!

[Michael D.]

Jim,

I took Bayern at 24-1 an hour and a half before the close yesterday. 22-1 shortly thereafter, and I told my father that some late money knocking this thing down to 20-1 would give me more confidence. Well, the late money came and he\'s now 15-1. Too low, I guess, as it\'s not out of the question that we get a story on DRF.com tomorrow telling us that Bayern simply has too much work to do and won\'t even make the Derby.

But that\'s the risk I took. I like both the top and bottom of the pedigree, and the high cruising speed. And if he does what I think he\'s capable of next week (or the week after), he\'ll be 5-1 on Derby day.

[covelj70]

I think Baffert will send Bayern to the Arkansas Derby.

Running against Cali chrome and candy boy is too tall an order for bayern at this stage

It\'s funny. Baffert is loaded as he might send as many as 4 or 5 to the derby and several of them are very live but public sentiment has seemingly turned against him so we aren\'t seeing as much about written about that as we might if Todd was sending 5.

To be clear, I\'m not expressing an opinion on whether he deserves the heat or not (after all the grief I took last year for stuff i posted here, I would like to avoid such angst this year). Just making an observation.

[Marlin]

They have been dropping like flies the last few weeks.  I am feeling lucky as  I took Candy Boy @ 100-1 in January.   I jumped on him after seeing his turn of foot on the Cash Call.  Enough for me to jump in then.  Been fortunate to keep him in training, it is all luck when betting in January futures.
Good luck to all & we will see what happens the first Saturday in May.

[jimbo66]

Jim

I was as unimpressed as you with all the horses thus past weekend, except one.  

Take another look at constitutions race from beginning to end.  He will get a relatively bad TG number because he was on the inside but it doesn\'t tell the story.  He didn\'t break well, got beat to the spot he wanted by Rosario.   He did NOT react kindly to restraint.  He pulled on the bit and climbed some into and out of the first turn.  He did settle after that.  But then he had to move through a relatively tight hole in the stretch. And once he did, he leveled off well.

This horse has only had 3 races, but he has done several things which u rarely see in racing.  In his first start he blows the start, rushes madly into contention and instead of fading, he wins.  Then he is rank and pulling, a sure sign of death in a race, and he wins anyway.

He has more upside. I am not worried at all about his speed figures. What I do worry about is his inability to break well.  Could be fatal in a 20 horse field.  He needs an outside draw for the derby.  

But he is the one horse that ran this weekend that is interesting to me.

And he won\'t be a bad price, despite being a Pletcher. No gaudy figures and most will feel he doesn\'t have the necessary foundation.

Jim

[louisvilleguy1111]

Jimbo I totally agree with you on Constitution. He was the only horse that impressed me over the weekend. I think this colt has a HUGE upside and when I look at the others all over the country it would not surprise me one bit if it is a year that a horse with 3 lifetime starts and no 2 year old races can win the Derby. I mean I will be honest other then Candy Boy I have not seen anything out there that screams 1 1/4. Not a big fan of Hoppertunity nor am I of anything that has been running in Ark so far. The fairgrounds horses are slow slow. No thanks to a couple NY breds up at Aqu. I mean I guess I could see Tapiture making some noise at CD, but really I haven\'t seen anything up to this point that has made me sit up and say wow, but I thought Constitution\'s FL Derby was as good as we have seen from anything so far. Right now I have Candy Boy ranked 1st and Constitution ranked 2nd and waiting on this coming weekend to see Candy Boy\'s number cause I am pretty sure he will win the SA Derby. Not a fan of CA Chrome, and as for Cairo Prince anyone that saw his gallop out after the Holy Bull knows the horse needed the time off between races cause he shut it down literally three steps after the wire. Still a couple big weekends left but so far Constitution has me standing up and taking notice. Have a good one and good luck to all!!

[ajkreider]

I think the numbers for the FD will come back okay. They were about a second faster than Devil\'s Cave in her race earlier on the card - she being the brief track record holder at 1 1/16 and coming off a nice graded win.  The only horse on the day who blew the doors off time-wise was the sprint winner - and given the past figs of the top three in there and his rail trip - that seems about right.

On Constitution, he saw four things that will help hin on Derby day.  He got a face full of dirt most of the way around the track. He got leaned on pretty heavily turning for home.  He went through a tight hole when asked, and he didn\'t give way when pressured from a determined horse on his outside.

At this stage, only a really bad draw makes him tossable for me.

[jimbo66]

AJ,

The Florida should NOT come back with good numbers.  The Beyer was 98 or so.  

Devil\'s Cave and \"has been\" Unlimited Budget got beat by a can of shit, who was running slow numbers before Saturday.  I would not count on that race being the one to justify a good number for the Florida Derby.

Jim

[covelj70]

all,

thanks for the interesting thoughts, much appreciated.

I didn\'t like Constitutions race nearly as much as many here seemed to the first few times I watched it but I will go back and watch again in light of the thoughtful comments by many here.

I saw him beating two distanced challenged horses on Saturday after the rail opened up for him

he didn\'t run fast and he didn\'t beat any good horses (or horses that are good at that distance more specifically)

that said, I am respectful of others comments which is why I asked for thoughts so I will reconsider

also, question for Louisville, what don\'t you like about Cali Chrome?  you said \"not a fan\"  Are you worried about the distance (a legit concern) or something else you don\'t like?  I love the horse but don\'t know about the 1 1/4

he\'s fast, has good tactical speed and has beaten horses that have come back to run big races so he checks alot of boxes for me

[Bigredgoer]

Another big question that needs to be considered is the \"Florida\" factor, and what happens to these barns traditionally on big \"test\" days

[Tavasco]

Many may not realize that South Florida received heavy rains from Friday afternoon and through the night prior to FD. Saturday, was after the rain front, race day had gusty winds and was cool.

I expect, these weather factors and their effect on track speed will create some controversy and differing opinions as to speed rating.

Two more considerations Johnny V.:  1) goes three+ wide (on the lead) thru the 1st turn, 2. Leaves the rail open for Constitution in late stretch.

I speculate JV was more concerned about a dead rail than he was in race riding rivals wide.

If true, big positives for Constitution.

Do we know Graham Motion\'s plans for Ring Weekend?

[big18741]

You could see the gusty wind watching the races.
Plants down by the finish line and palm trees in the infield were blowing pretty good.

I don\'t see a dead rail though.Some horses ran bad inside but the Pletcher filly in the Oaks kept going on it during her stretch run and Happy My Way blitzed a field wire to wire while staying on the rail.That surface looked pretty fair-you could win from anywhere.

Sounds like the Calder Derby for Ring Weekend.
He has enough points so why gut him in a better race.

[Tavasco]

Now I discover that Constitution is what the Ragz Guys call a house horse? I guess that means owned whole/part by clients/Voldemorts Gang.

So since I won\'t get attached to a Pletcher/Voldemort/Attorney set of connections I have to switch my subjective yearning to Toast Of New York - hope he makes the trip.