california dream-in

[pres711]

If you look at his sheet (IMO) California chrome is the horse to beat on may 3.  Here\'s hoping for a pair or slight regression on Saturday after three straight races almost good enough to win in may.  high cruising speed, can go either way if he he wants to,  FOUNDATION is the key for me, haven\'t  seen a derby winner without it!  I\'m still also not counting strong mandate out off his two year-old top.  Arkansas Derby big for him, I think he will respond.  Sitting on two major futures with these two, perhaps I\'m biased.  Can\'t wait for this Saturday for CC.  He doesn\'t need to win, just maintain his form.  A one point move forward in may will win against this bunch. Welcome any comments.

[Tavasco]

I think you have reason to be hopeful with Strong Mandate (when few are). It wouldn\'t be the first horse DWL raced into condition nor the first horse he entered that didn\'t belong?   Good Luck!

[miff]

Rosario bailed off Strong Mandate, will ride Tapiture for Asmussen in Ark Derby.

Tonalist also out of Wood, lung infection.

[jimbo66]

California Chrome has no chinks right now.  Runs fast, has positional speed, is in razor sharp form.  

As for Strong Mandate, you have a horse that Lukas will run in the Derby if he isn\'t hurt.  So, that gives you a shot.  But anybody with an objective view on this horse has to say he has almost zero shot.  Ran bad, albeit wide, first time out, but got the excuse of missing training because of all the bad weather at Oaklawn.  But, then last time out, gets a wet track he loves, gets a good ride, on a track at least neutral to speed, and is awful in the stretch.  Forget about the \"interference\" when Desormeaux drifted, STrong Mandate was a dead piece at that point.  

Not sure if he is distance challenged, off form, or didn\'t mature from 2 to 3, but except for horses that got injured, he is EASILY the most disappointing horse to me this year of the 3 year old crop.  Thought he had the right foundation, right pedigree and ran very well in the BC with an over aggressive ride, and would be \"one of the ones\" this year.  But can\'t endorse him with any logical reasoning.

Good luck,

Jim

[Halo Fire]

Jimbo,
Agree with everything you said. However, what IF Strong Mandate runs well in the ark derby?
Big if but we\'ve seen this movie before from Lukas.

[big18741]

Nice sheet for California Chrome but that pedigree might stop him.

Rosario/Anderson would be crazy not to bail for Tapiture in a million dollar race.
Tapiture\'s been the better 3yo and Rosario hasn\'t had much luck on Strong Mandate(two trouble trips and a wide post in the Juvenile)

Strong Mandate has to run 3rd or better at Oaklawn to have enough points.
Not too optimistic Lukas can get him cranked up to do that.
Lots of bad luck,bad timing,bad weather compromising that horses fitness this winter.

No work(weather) for fifteen days prior to the Southwest while Tapiture got his work in.
Last work pre Rebel was nine days out in a very slow 5f in 103.60.

Missed a work last Monday when a horse got loose during training.When he did work last Wednesday a crawling 4f in 54.Lukas says the last two slow works were part by design and part rider error trying to get the horse to relax.Whatever it was it\'s less than ideal.

Needs a good work tomorrow and another one after that before the Arkansas Derby.
Bayern will be tough on the engine and Strong Mandate needs a forward move off his last couple to hit the board.

[louisvilleguy1111]

Man I am hoping CA Chrome runs off the screen lol cause that horse gets nothing come the first Sat in May. Without looking at the pp\'s I will be keying Candy Boy as the horse to beat but seeing how much everyone loves Chrome and I do not, maybe I will skip it and hope Chrome runs a hole in the wind and draws off! Good luck everyone...

[jimbo66]

Louisville

Alright, the second post baited.  Who gives a damn if California chrome is a cal bred.  Exactly how does that matter at this point?  

U follow up a toss of one of the two fastest horses right now based on being a cal bred, with a weekend pick without looking at the PPs?

I got a stock tip for u.  Don\'t buy companies incorporated in Delaware, \"just because\".  And I like this silicone valley stock, but I haven\'t seen the income statement.

California chrome is a serious contender.  

And the west coast horses are better than the east coast horses this year.  So tossing him based on who he has faced is silly.   (I am a nj/ny guy but objectively the eastern and Florida horses are jut not running fast.  Social inclusion is the exception)

Good luck

Jim

[louisvilleguy1111]

No need in getting upset, let me look like a fool. But no way I use him on a single ticket at CD. Hey it\'s what makes this sport wonderful everyone has an opinion. Take care, good luck.

[big18741]

If Candy Boy doesn\'t run 1-2-3 he isn\'t in the Derby.
Same spot as Cairo Prince going into the Florida Derby.

He had the perfect trip of the prep season in the Robert Lewis.
Lots of people over rated him off that dream setup.
Hoppertunity and Cali Chrome are both tough versatile horses.
If they fire and something else in the field moves forward Candy Boy doesn\'t have to be in the tri.

He needs to improve to be a factor on Saturday and in the next one where that extra furlong might get him anyway.

[ajkreider]

Similarly, despite their hype, Beyern and Social Inclusion need to finish in the top two to get to Kentucky.  While both very talented, winning going away against 5 horse fields is a rather different animal than shipping to face 10 winners.  Amazing that those two finished at 15-1 and 11-1 respectively in the final future pool.

[big18741]

There\'s a lot to like about California Chrome other than maybe his pedigree.
Interested to see how he\'s going late and thru the wire on Saturday.
On paper it looks like nine furlongs might be it but you never know.

One interesting note though which I didn\'t realize-his dam sire Not For Love\'s full brother Rhythm won the Travers.

Strong Mandate gets Saez and change might be good since he\'s had nothing but bad luck w/Rosario.If he doesn\'t run 1-2-3 at Oaklawn I have a feeling Lukas takes the blinkers off but he\'d be out of the Derby anyway.

[pres711]

thanks for the response.  The dam side is also undervalued as she traces to numbered account, I tink the bloodline is undervalued.  ( I am no expert here).  What I like is how he moves, effortlessly and changin leads with smooth precision.  My main concern if too big a race saturday impacting his pattern.  would like to see a pair up, don\'t care if he wins saturday.  I bet him early then again in the futures at 30-1.  could be something special, time will tell.  just keep him safe and healthy.

[toppled]

If he doesn\'t run 1-2-3 in the Arkansas Derby, Strong Mandate should be pointed to the Met mile.  Years ago I loved playing a classy 3yo in the Met who just wasn\'t up to the Triple Crown distances.

[Box]

Breeding is middle distance, I will be betting  a horse price in the Derby { no clue at this point } but that said hard not to root for CC; crushed that field….