Social Inclsion draws the 11 for a race that starts on the turn

[covelj70]

ouch, he better be the freak I think he is to pull this off

he\'s going to need to be every bit of Big Brown to pull this off

can\'t wait for that race

[jimbo66]

Jim,

Certainly agree not an ideal draw.  That said, in looking at the PPs, not sure how many speed horses there are in the race and even the ones that are front runners don\'t have the kind of gas that Social Inclusion has.  Neither Uncle Sigh nor Samraat are \"quick\" speed horses, nor is Shivarelli (although with Castellano, probably gets sent).  Kristo has gas on occasion.  

I too am looking forward to seeing this horse race.  This next statement comes from somebody who has not owned horses, so perhaps I should shut my mouth, but I can\'t believe the business decision not to sell this horse. Unless the owner is already extremely wealthy, the upside/downside is horrendously skewed to the downside.  Right now, a bunch of people, like you, believe this horse could \"be a freak\".  And apparently some people are factoring that into a purchase price (8 million for 75%).  Not only does have to win the Wood, but he has to win impressively to justify the offers or have them go up.  He wins, in a normal 100 Beyer or so, by a length, and his price will go DOWN not up.  Because many will view he isn\'t a \"freak\" and he got perfect conditions in the Honor Code race.  (sort of like when good earnings come out and the stock goes down because it was \"priced in\" already)

God forbid he runs bad, his value drops off a cliff.  

There was a horse a few years back, I think a filly, that shipped from Finger Lakes, and won at Saratoga.  I believe she was named for the owner\'s dead wife.  He turned down a big 7 figure offer for the filly.  She then ran in maybe the Test or some other stakes and ran awful.  I think she was back at Finger Lakes in small races shortly thereafter, never to be heard from again.

If there was ever a game to \"strike while the iron is hot\", this is it.

Good luck,

Jim

[TGJB]

Especially since he gets the money AND gets to stay in.

We need a market where we can short this stuff.

Given the post, the points deal and the jump to a big figure, I make him about even money to run in the Derby.

[miff]

.....the game is clean!!!


NYSGamingCommission (@NYSGamingComm)
4/2/14, 6:26 PM
Veterinary records for horses running in the 4/5 Wood Memorial are now online: gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.02.14.W…. Summary: gaming.ny.gov/pdf/04.02.14.W…

[Box]

Draw makes it interesting; waiting to see the TG numbers. Assuming all the offer rumors are somewhat accurate still can\'t believe owner did not sell part of the horse.

Also good luck Saturday at Kee, looks like a good spot. Certainly enough speed in the race to help set up for off pace style.

[TGJB]

There\'s a frenzy of activity right now, we\'ll see whether it leads to something productive.

[miff]

Personally think that curtailing the use of legal/therapeutic meds is nothing more than a Public Relations exercise by the Clueless Clowns.This will result in less starts per horse, pressure the entry box and push smaller outfits over the financial edge.

The blowhards on the soap box and conspiracy idiots will pump there chest, the changes will be largely irrelevant except to expedite some contraction.

[Boscar Obarra]

Maybe the part he wanted to sell wasn\'t what they wanted to buy.

[toppled]

The horse\'s name is Lisa\'s Booby Trap.  He named her after his dead wife & his favorite strip joint -true story.  There was a story in the local paper that he thought his wife had been reincarnated into the horse.  It was 2010, I was just about to retire & a group of us from work had a picnic at Saratoga the 1st time she ran there. I really wanted to put on a show for them & I ended up hitting a decent P3 with her. She looked pretty solid on the Thoro-graph sheets, was something like 12/1 ML & ended up paying about $5.  I won about $800 that day & looked like a hero instead of a goat. She was then entered in a turf stake, she may have gone off the favorite.  My first reaction when she went on turf was the trainer was out of his mind. She finished last.  
Here\'s her record from Horseracingnation: http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Lisas_Booby_Trap

[phil23]

Mike, thanks for the heads up on this feed. Can\'t believe I didn\'t already follow them. Very timely.

[covelj70]

Box and Jimbo,

The offer was very much real.

There is quite a bit going on behind the scenes in this situation.

People on the board were invovled and its their place to share the info if they ever choose to, not mine. Fascinating stuff though

Me and some friends made an offer and got laughed at because we were in a different zip code dollar wise

Obviosuly you guys are right about huge downside but if the horse wins the Wood like the last race, he\'s worth at least 8m as a stallion already. Then if he wins Derby, he\'s 30m as a stallion.

That upside isn\'t the only reason the deal didn\'t go down but that\'s part of it.

Box, thanks for the thoughts on the Ashland. If she likes the synthetic, then huge shot because she\'s doing great. No idea if she will like it though. We won\'t have any idea until she hits the top of the stretch and really tries to dig into the stuff. Synthetic is a total crap shoot but everyone on the board knows from before the Breeders Cup how good I think she is on turf. Well see if it translates. Thanks again

[TMW]

Boy, Jim I don\'t agree.

The last 5 stallions who won the Wood stand for between $10,000-$17,500. No way you can get to $8 million as a stallion prospect with a Wood win alone. Not even close. Social Inclusion\'s breeding is unproven at the moment. Pioneer of the Nile may turn out to be great (I hope so as I just purchased a 2 year old colt POTN out of an AP Indy mare) but still he is pretty unproven.

Social\'s 2 wins were gate to wire with the last race being an allowance race. The big plus is he got a big figure and beat a nice horse -- in 1 race.

Derby fever is really something. Oh to have a good 2 year old...

Mike

[covelj70]

What do you think a stallion that can stand for 20k and breed 150 mares a year is worth. That\'s 3m a year for 3 years before anyone figures out if their offspring can run a lick.

[TMW]

I guess your math is correct but I have never seen a model with 150 mares for 3 years as an example of a stallion\'s value. I have had a few stallions and my model is much more conservative especially for an unproven stallion\'s sire. I have not had a really good horse for a while so possibly the model has changed.

Even though the babies won\'t run until they are 2 they still will be born and will be examined for confirmation, etc. before they are proven/not proven on the race track. He may be a nice horse. He may not be a nice horse. We will see. I hope he is. I just disagree with the stated value of a Wood winner based on recent history -- Tale of Ekati, I Want Revenge, Eskendereya, Toby\'s Corner, Gemologist, Verrazano.

[covelj70]

This is far from my sweet spot so your opinion is likely more valid than mine but I believe a few of those you listed traded for more than 8m.