California chrome

[Bet Twice]

Wow....

[pizzalove]

Not sure what to think here.  Absolutely perfect trip.  Other horses wouldn\'t of beaten the Sa Oaks horses.  Very slow pace on a lightning fast track.  I wonder what you all think of the pulling up at the end.  I think they missed a chance to put a little extra in here.  I think back to Silver Charms tough effort in the Santa Anita Derby that resulted in a Kentucky Derby victory 4 weeks later.

wonder what his derby horse will be.

This is the best board in the world.

[P-Dub]

He was very impressive visually.

I don\'t know about a perfect trip. Sluggish start, bumped a bit, between horses into the first turn. Stalked an average pace and ran away in the stretch.

As for easing up, everyone here talks about saving something for the big race. Why push him towards the wire??

I\'ve seen tougher SA Derbies. Will be interested to see his sheet after this race.

[jimbo66]

Pizza

We saw different races.  Guess that\'s what makes this game interesting.

Slow start, rushed between horses.  Drew off under hand urging.  Never under s threat in the stretch.  Crushed candy boy and Hoopertunity, two horses on most people\'s top 10 list

Clearly the best 3 year old right now.  No flaws.  No justifiable reason to bet against at Churchill except price and potentially post position draw.  

Good luck

Jim

[P-Dub]

I mentioned this last month, and as you could probably tell from the post race interview, the owners are real good guys. Bumped into them at the hotel Big Cap weekend, they clearly are having a good time.

Its a cool story, small time claiming game owners.  They bred the horse with I believe a mare that they own. Couple guys in their 60\'s, living in Northern Nevada. The horse was born on his sister\'s birthday, his sister passed away from cancer at the age of 36. His birthday happens to be Derby Day May 3. He is confident, loves talking up his horse, and is having the time of his life.  Good for him.

[RogerC]

Thats a great story good to see connections like this in the spotlight its good for the game….RC

[ajkreider]

Indeed.  Started thinking of who to put underneath in the super last night.  Goes soooo easy.

The one worry I have is how he will respond when faced with a tough horse - one that might put a head back in front when passed.  There seems no shortage of those this year:  Samaraat, Wildcat Red, Tapiture, Chitu.  CC hasn\'t had to deal with one of these at the top of the stretch, but talent tops grit most of the time - and he has it in spades.

[miff]

Cali Chrome a 107 Beyer,Wicked Strong a 104 Beyer, while close, no comparison on the talent level on the track.

CC goes to a Derby solid choice, must handle quirky CD strip and show mettle off SA dirt which he loves.Supposedly trains well on other dirt surfaces.

Wicked Strong on radar after sneaky late run in Remsen, bombed subsequently, but ran back well on AQU surface again with a perfect set up/trip....must also handle CD......actually they all do.

[TreadHead]

I think the surface question is an extremely important one.  I\'m not saying that CC is Goldencents, but you need only look back to last year to see a horse that looks like a world-beater over the SA strip because of its less-tiring nature and then shows up at CD and other east coast tracks and can\'t out-run his pedigree like he did at SA.

According to Dr Steve\'s website (which I used for the breeding info, not because I\'m into dosage), on the dam side Not For Love stakes winners have an AWD of 6.83 furlongs, among the shortest of any of the contenders and in stark contradiction to most other recent winners, who all have a strong stamina influence (8.0F or greater) on the dam side.

He\'s a very nice horse that will bring a strong following to the Derby, and I have no idea who I\'m using in the Derby yet, but I do already know that unless the workout reports have him head and shoulders above everyone else that CC will not be on any of my tickets.

He may enjoy a great career winning 8, 9, maybe even 10F races at SA if he catches the right field.  But I\'m betting he finds a more tiring surface like CD to be his un-doing in a G1 route, no matter how strong his SA-based figures look on a sheet.

[pizzalove]

Jimbo,

Love your posts and appreciate the feedback.  You are more knowledgeable at this then I am.  I want to ask you about a couple of negatives on CC and you can answer.  

1)  I have enormous difficulty getting a great feel for a horses appearance on TV.  Seeing several stakes races live I have formed completely different opinions on a horses appearance.  I like a certain size horse or larger.  Last year I was ready to bet Black Onyx with both fists after watching him work.  (This year I will be doing no travelling to anything.  Sadly missing even the Blue Grass which I never miss.) Anyway it looks to me that CC is not a very tall horse without the longest stride either.  What do you think.  You may have seen him personally.

2)I have a concern with the second race at Santa Anita (and other races as well) that would show me this was not all that impressive a race.  Almost played out like a work for CC.  Will not catch this slow a pace or this fast a track at CD.

3) I disagree that his start was much of a problem.  Very slight stumble at the beginning but he recovered in like a step.  

Now I hate betting the fave.  Especially in Kentucky on Derby day so I am looking for chinks in the armour.  One thing I will say and this is a big big big thing.............This horse if very seasoned as well.  I may have been mistaken when I mentioned they were foolish for laying off him before the wire.  A horse with this much foundation may not of needed the hard drill.

I would love to see him at 7/5 and not come in the money.  How likely is that?  I don\'t know.

[jimbo66]

Pizzalove,

I have no eye for horse flesh, so perhaps somebody else can make a comment about his appearance.  

As for his races playing out easy, is that a function of the horses he raced against, or the ease with which he beat them?  The race two back, he absolutely crushed Midnight Hawk and Kristo, who were supposed to be top horses at the time.  Then yesterday he crushed Hoppertunity and CAndy Boy, who were also supposed to be top horses.  

He wins the races so easily, you can say he hasn\'t been tested.  But exactly which 3 year old prep do you think had \"better competition\"?  The mighty Florida Derby had a good field on paper, but distance challenged Wildcat Red ran 2nd, a horse that i think has some potential won, but Cairo Prince didn\'t show up and how anybody can still talk about General A-Rod has a contender is beyond me.  (backs up in the stretch of EVERY one of his races, don\'t care what his pedigree says).  
The Fairgrounds races have been weak.

The Wood is interesting, but certainly wouldn\'t say was \"better\" than the Santa Anita Derby.

I think most of us hate betting the favorite and I may not bet California Chrome, but he is clearly the most likely winner at this point.

As for odds, he will never go off anywhere near 7-5 as you say.  Nobody goes off like that.  The shortest he goes off is 3-1.  Like all Derby favorites nowadays, nobody goes off too short.  Everybody shops for the longshot.  which makes all the horses, even the favorite, playable.

Good luck,

Jim

[jerry]

He\'s got plenty of stamina on his sire side with three shots of Princequillo. Enough to offset the speed slant on the dam side?

[covelj70]

Jimbo

Well said all around

Ever since Mine that Bird won so close to Giacomo, horses that should be 80 to 1 go off at 35 to 1.

[P-Dub]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think the surface question is an extremely
> important one.  I\'m not saying that CC is
> Goldencents, but you need only look back to last
> year to see a horse that looks like a world-beater
> over the SA strip because of its less-tiring
> nature and then shows up at CD and other east
> coast tracks and can\'t out-run his pedigree like
> he did at SA.
>

Why are you basing your theory on Goldencents??

- I\'ll Have Another raced exclusively on the West Coast, except for a terrible performance in the Hopeful.

- Giacomo ran on the West Coast exclusively before his Derby win.  Yes, the race fell apart. But if he couldn\'t handle the surface, that wouldn\'t have mattered.

- Silver Charm didn\'t venture out of California before he nearly won the Triple Crown.

Now it may be true that California Chrome doesn\'t handle the surface, but Goldencents\' performance last year has nothing to do with it.

[jimbo66]

I am with P-Dub, I don\'t get the Goldencents comparison.

Goldencents ran one good race last year, in the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, it was very good and it made him \"one of the ones\" on many people\'s lists.  But he faded badly in his prior start and has proven out to be a miler/sprinter.

California Chrome has had more than 1 impressive route race.  Pulling away in the stretch.

Yes, he needs to answer the CD surface question, as do many.  Which is why anybody with a win or solid race at CD is ALWAYS worth an extra look.  One of the reasons I am very curious to see how Tapiture runs this weekend.

Good luck,

Jim