Hopportunity

[jbelfior]

Love his pull up after the wire. Candy Boy appears to be distance challenged at this point.
Was at Aqueduct for the Wood...doubt that anything out of there makes an impact at CD. Florida division overall the strongest but agree Cali has the two best 3 year olds.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[covelj70]

Joe B

Interested you say Florida strongest

none of the Florida horses have fared well when they shipped

I think Cali horses far and away best this year

I did notice the gallop out by Hopportuntiy

He will be wise guy horse for Derby based on that but sometimes wise guy hose is the right horse

He\'s a nice horse and can\'t be discounted. Slight move backward yesterday TG wise for him and that\'s historically been a bad pattern to bet in the derby but maybe wasn\'t fully cranked since he was already in race and so not a pure read on his pattern.

[miff]

Jim,

Caution on fake gallop out by Hopportunity, Espinoza stopped riding CC 1/16 pole and slowed CC dramatically making Hopp gallop out appear stronger than it was,watch again.

Hopp a grinding slug with 1 phony wide wet track fig....does look long winded,but not too fast. Baffy\'s fastest is Bayern, way behind in conditioning though.

Think Constitution will be kinda wise guy horse but is no better than several out of Florida,appears to have most upside though.

Mike

[Polamalu43]

Miff,

First time poster, so take it easy on me.  Just kidding.  Love the board!

Can we assume that the gallop outs in Hoppers other races were fake as well?  All of his other races he galloped out best to my eye.

[miff]

Pola,

Hopp is very even splitted and appears long winded, not surprised by what you observed. Gallop outs tricky, some horses shut down right at wire while others continue on.

Fast matters most,gallop outs not as much.

Good Luck
Mike

[Polamalu43]

Miff,

Fast, I agree, matters, no question.  I should have clarified my point.  His gallop outs show me that the 1 1/4 will not be an issue, unlike most in this upcoming field.  

Take care

[miff]

Pola

Agree distance probably not an issue. My notes on him have him idling on turns(last 2 races)then better when straightening. CD configuration would not seem to flatter his style.

Will say that except for the \"present\" CC and maybe Ark Derby winner, very wide open and evenly matched group.Would hope that Cairo Prince(undertrained by Kool Aid drinking trainer)Social Inclusion and Bayern get in Derby, remote as it seems.


Mike

[ajkreider]

I couldn\'t disagree more with this sentiment.  I was just thinking this was the strongest GP crop I\'ve seen.  For example,

The Holy Bull also-rans include the Risen Star, Calder Derby, Bayshore, and Wood winners.  The FOY produced the Spiral and Transylvania winners.  Other allowance races produced the Sam Davis and Tampa winners. That\'s 8 shippers to 6 tracks, and none of the above include:  

Constitution, Wildcat Red, Arod, and Cairo - all of whom will probably go to the Derby.  Neither does it include Social Inclusion and Commissioner, who hit the board in other preps.  It also doesn\'t include Honor Code, Tonalist, Top Billing, Mexicoma, and Nay No Never, who have obvious talent.  And I expect Mr. Speaker or Divine Oath to take the Bluegrass.

That\'s 20+ stakes-quality 3 year olds.

[covelj70]

Fair points but I wasn\'t really taking about horses who won MSW at GP and ship to win at tampa to beat other mediocore GP horses who also shipped to tampa or horses that ran up the track in January at GP winning 3 months later somewhere else or turf horses from GP shipping to win turf or/poly races

I was talking about dirt horses that ran well in stakes at gp shipping to win stakes in other places which other than intense holiday didn\'t happen.

the Cali horses that had hit the board in recent stakes in cali shipped to run 1/2 in sunland and dominate a shipper from gp and a Cali shipper won the rebel and subsequently returned to Cali to get whipped by CC

I typically heavily favor the Florida horses but I think they were very bad this year.

[ajkreider]

Maybe we aren\'t disagreeing, as I think (along with you and JB), that the top echelon Cali horses are the class of this crop - and CC by a mile.  Just making a point about depth. (It\'s worth mentioning that horses that run well in GP stakes usually stay local.)

On Commissioner though, this one has been dining out on his win over Top Billing all Winter.  Yeah, he got thumped in the Sunland by 7.  He also finished 6th in the FOY, beaten 10 lengths. Based on performance, I wouldn\'t put him in the Florida top 10.