Figure Differences

[TGJB]

This year there are some differences between TG and some other figures involving Derby probables.

We have the Sunland Derby slower than Beyer. I broke the race out (the only one at that distance), and will review it, but it\'s unlikely enough will run back before the Derby to form a strong opinion.

We have the SA Derby slower than Beyer. First of all our timing had it about 4/5 slower (two different clockers), but regardless the race fits very tight on figures the way I did it. CC went back slightly, but it\'s clearly \"h?\", and essentially a pair.

I haven\'t seen Ragozin (Jake? Ken Sherman?) yet, but can tell you without looking that their pattern on CC will be much different because of their SoCal sprint/route issues. This is really quite something, and they only get away with it because their clientele knows so little about figures. Any basic distance analysis-- the kind done by every single figure maker-- would tell them they are 3-4 points out of whack. Since I\'ve been talking about this here for a decade they must have done one, and their refusal to fix the problem can only be because they don\'t want to admit a mistake, rationalized somehow.

There are undoubtedly other differences as well. It\'s an interesting year.

[miff]

\"We have the SA Derby slower than Beyer. First of all our timing had it about 4/5 slower (two different clockers), but regardless the race fits very tight on figures the way I did it. CC went back slightly, but it\'s clearly \"h?\", and essentially a pair\"


JB,

Beyer had CC app TG neg -1.5 for the San Filipe and TG neg -1.5 for the SA Derby,did not hear about time discreapancy, Randy Moss usually all over that stuff.

The usual differences between the TC preps figs are there amongst TG/Rags/Beyer. Makes those who are pure pattern readers going in opposite directions on certain runners, depending on which data one uses.


Mike

[covelj70]

interesting stuff JB, thanks for this, it\'s very helpful

that said, you didn\'t answer the key question that Jimbo is waiting on

is Arod as fast on everyone else\'s stuff?

I mean, Jimbo is chomping at the bit to play this horse and he\'s just hoping it\'s concealed on the other guys like it is for TGs!!!!!!

this is all in good fun in case that\'s not apparent to everyone.

JB\'s figures are the best

I care about class and distance limitations alot more than JB does but whatever he says the number is, that\'s what I use as the number

I just don\'t assume that horses that run 0s against NY breds can necessarily run them in open company (some can) and I certainly don\'t assume that just because a horse ran a good number at a 1 1/16 that they can do it going a 1 1/4 and this is our biggest area of disagreement.

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I can actually answer that one.

TGJB stands alone with A-Rod as a contender.

He is a can of ____  on everybody else\'s figures....

But good luck with your futures bet on him!  I also told a friend 10 years ago that had a futures ticket on Giacomo that I would eat his plaid sports jacket if Giacomo won the Derby.......

This game makes you wrong more than any other one, by far.  I never feel dumber than when playing horses.  (with the possible exception of when under a verbal attack from my wife about all my faults.....)

Jim

[TGJB]

For reasons I have discussed here before (use of pars, confirmed, despite Beyer saying they don\'t use them any more) they have California about 2 of our points too fast. You should have picked up on that already.

Which means big discrepancies between Beyer and Rags on Cali routes... one has them too fast, one too slow...

[TGJB]

I don\'t have any idea what he looks like on anyone else\'s figures, and I\'ll save all my own opinions until the seminar.

I will say this-- there are a bunch of horses in a tight figure range, and the rest not fast enough, given how few new tops are usually run in the Derby. But of the roughly 6 or so contenders on number power, pattern reading and all the other stuff discussed here will be where handicapping this race comes down.

That and ground loss, huge factor with a big, evenly matched field.

[covelj70]

JB, just wait till Commisssioner runs a big one this weekend, you will have to add him into the mix of contenders....lol

[jimbo66]

For the record, I much prefer General A-Rod over commissioner.

At least General A-Rod can run for a mile or so.  commissioner has almost no run at all....

Probably that will be the Derby exacta now....

[covelj70]

hah, I know he hasn\'t run fast yet but I am very bullish he will do so this weekend

He hasn\'t got a chance to do what he really wants to do yet.  I think it\'s coming

he may wind up being more of a belmont horse like his daddy but I am anxious to see him run this weekend.

[Polamalu43]

I have him pegged as a top Belmont contender, I agree totally. If he stays healthy and such. To me he\'s a one gear type, a grinder, that would relish the Belmont Stakes.

[covelj70]

we are on the same page on this one

the fact that his connections didn\'t just skip the Ark Derby and point right for the Belmont after the Sunland Derby intuigues me

these are some of the smartest people in the game between the owners and trainer and they aren\'t wrong that often

they also don\'t need to run in the horse in derby just for the sake of having the experience (like some people...lol).

the fact that they are giving him another shot to make the derby and the fact that he broke last by a bunch in the Sunland Derby and still ran an ok race makes me want to give him a chance this weekend

now, JB will tell you that I am seeing what I want to see about this horse beacause I have liked him since January but he can\'t deny how smart the connections are (or he would get in trouble since he\'s good friends with them so I have that going for my argument!)

[TGJB]

Only friends with one of \"them\".

[ajkreider]

Had a question about the ground loss.  You\'d think in a 20 horse field, there would be a lot of buried (!) numbers.  But looking through the archives, it seems like the horse with the best figure almost always wins.  The only recent counter-example I saw was Empire Maker.

Doesn\'t this suggest that, for the win at least, we should ignore potential ground loss for handicapping purposes - and just focus on the fastest horse?

[Tavasco]

Alternatively, It may suggest a horse can not recover from ground loss in this situation.  The large field (traffic) exaggerates the effects of ground loss and inhibits a good figure.

Consequently ground loss is all important!

[TGJB]

Last year Normandy Invasion finished fourth, running a better figure than the second and third finishers. Same for Brother Derek in 2006-- those are two examples of Derby ground loss that occurred to me without even going fishing.