Derby Picture

[TGJB]

When\'s the last time someone said BEFORE the TC it\'s a strong crop?

Whenever one or two horses don\'t dominate people say the crop is weak. In reality, if one does, it usually means the rest aren\'t that much.

[covelj70]

No one said last years crop was weak.

[Silver Charm]

Agreed and there are several who are in the race where the only Stakes race they have ever won of any type (Danza, Dance with Fate) or even run in (Constitution) was the one that go them the Points to get in the race. Too many unproven potential One Hit Wonders!!

[TGJB]

You mean you didn\'t. I would be very surprised if that were true-- you hear it every year.

And anyway, with Verazzano and orb there were a couple considered standouts-- which as I said is what people look at, not the crop as a whole. This is a very deep crop-- lots have run 2 or better already.

[jimbo66]

Bet Twice,

I use the TG product, so don\'t want to be put in the position of attacking it, because I am not.

But the old saying that purist sheet players often used \"a number is a number\", is as wrong as \"the world is flat\".  

An example of phony ground loss is a trip where a horse sits in the two path, off a cheap speed horse, who is can be used as a target.  other than loose lead, there is no better trip in racing.  Yet this generates a 2w/2w figure, which has ground loss in it.  I discount that ground loss and the figure (at least the portion associated with the \"ground loss\").

General A-Rod continues to apparently get \"good figures\" on TG, although I have not seen his sheet.  (taking Jim Covello\'s word on the sheet).  His numbers must be inflated with ground loss.  Is there any sane person that would take General A-Rod vs California Chrome, at any distance on dirt  in a straight even odds match up?  They have the same TG figures apparently.

[jimbo66]

Sure.

Artie vs Midnight Hawk and California Chrome vs General A-Rod.

Both bets.

You name the price.

[TGJB]

Let\'s leave CC out of it. Who would you take, Arod or Constitution, who beat him last time? If you discount ground loss you have to prefer C, no?

[jimbo66]

Constitution over A-Rod.

any day.  Twice on Sunday.

[TGJB]

We will correspond before the Derby.

[Tavasco]

Contrarian - Minority Report:

Since you don\'t want to get into Bayern, I will. First of all (IMO) he is a legit immature race horse as is Social Inclusion. One or both to make noise later this season.

Secondly, he was beaten by two legitimate TC contenders. The Arkansas Derby was a key prep. One or both of the first two finishers will be in the trifecta @ CD. No bets please (I don\'t need the money) and my ego left a while ago with my testosterone.

Timeform has Wicked Strong (Wood) faster than California Chrome (SAD), and their number incorporates pace. But speed figures are just a part of the puzzle as other minority reporters have previously posted. However, when viewing the Kentucky Derby I think STAMINA is most important and trip crucial.

Therefore, I can toss all the Tapits and several other short winded sires (I mean dams) leaving only the proven and possible pedigrees/jockeys. Since we have a group of horses not dissimilar in #\'s we will need to rely on the superb pattern reads of the TG gang and pedigree speculation.

Oh if only it was as simple as choosing the smallest #!