offshore odds-where is the value

[boston]

80501    CALIFORNIA CHROME          +305    
80502    CONSTITUTION              +1019    
80503    CAIRO PRINCE              +1019    
80504    HOPPERTUNITY              +1019    
80505    WICKED STRONG              +1215    
80506    DANZA                 +1415    
80507    RIDE ON CURLIN              +2251    
80508    DANCE WITH FATE          +4050
80509    TAPITURE              +2851    
80510    CANDY BOY              +3084    
80511    INTENSE HOLIDAY          +2551
80512    SAMRAAT                 +2251    
80513    VICARS IN TROUBLE          +2830
80514    CHITU                 +3251    
80515    GENERAL A ROD              +2574    
80516    WILDCAT RED              +3251    
80517    WE MISS ARTIE              +4250    
80518    MEDAL COUNT              +4550    
80519    MIDNIGHT HAWK              +6550    
80520    RING WEEKEND              +6550    
80521    ANY OTHER 3 YEAR OLD      +1215

[ajkreider]

Surpised by CP and Hoppers odds there.  Joint second choices with Constitution despite losing their preps fairly comprehensively.  Surprised Arod that much lower than Wildcat Red.  Vicar definately a longer shot than I would have thought.  

If I had to pick a value play from that list it would be Candy Boy - hoping he just needed a race, and Intense Holiday.

[jimbo66]

Looks like a pretty good betting line to me.  Hard to argue.

Danza at 14-1 seems low, but other than that nothing seems crazy.

Chitu hasn\'t done anything wrong other than lose a close decision to a perfect trip closer on a track that played against speed that day.  Can\'t say I love his chances to win at 1 1/4 but 32-1 on a horse that won well at 1 1/8 and has no bad races seems like a reasonable play.  

Many of the other long shots have bigger questions.  Candy buy was horrific last race. Tapiture almost as bad.

I am not a vicars in trouble fan but he is another who won at 1 1/8 and hasn\'t had s really poor race.  (Didn\'t like his race 2 back but it wasn\'t awful)

[boston]

You are correct about Arod and Wildcat.  When they originally opened the odds (last Thursday) Arod was 45-1 and Wildcat was 40-1.  Both have been bet down.

[boston]

Vicar open at 33 to 1.

[boston]

Probability Sums to 1.16 so these odds seem realistic.  They are taking up to a $1000 wager.

80501    CALIFORNIA CHROME         +285    
80503    CAIRO PRINCE              +825    
80504    HOPPERTUNITY              +825    
80505    WICKED STRONG              +1015    
80506    DANZA                     +1215    
80507    RIDE ON CURLIN              +1615    
80508    DANCE WITH FATE         +4050    
80509    TAPITURE              +2851    
80510    CANDY BOY              +3084    
80511    INTENSE HOLIDAY          +2551    
80512    SAMRAAT              +2250    
80513    VICARS IN TROUBLE          +2830    
80514    CHITU                      +3251    
80515    GENERAL A ROD              +2574    
80516    WILDCAT RED              +3251    
80517    WE MISS ARTIE              +4250    
80518    MEDAL COUNT              +4550    
80519    MIDNIGHT HAWK              +8550    
80520    RING WEEKEND              +6550    
80521    ANY OTHER 3 YEAR OLD              +1015

[boston]

California Chrome not to win derby -385
Midnight Hawk, Wicked Strong, and We Miss Artie not to win derby -1025

Small Bets
General A Rod +4500
Intense Holiday +3100
Samraat +3000

Medium Bet
Wildcat Red +4000

Big Bet
Vicars in Trouble +3000