Big Breeze from General ARod today

[covelj70]

good that he\'s sound to be able to breeze like that

not sure I would be lookin for that fast of a breeze though. (look how much faster than other few who breezed)

I know fast horses breeze fast but I think this horse would be better if he laid off the pace a bit and I don\'t think fast breezes help the cause there

I\'m not a trainer but he\'s clearly not as good right on the pace as he is back a little further with the ability to then close.  This reminds me a bit of the Super Saver situation where he was no good in the Arkansas Derby close to the pace and he had no kick left but Calvin got him to relax in the Derby and he had some close.  I know weak field and sloppy track etc but he clearly had more in the tank in the Derby after holding back off the pace.

ARod had perfect trip right on the pace in Florida Derby but faded in stretch.  Maybe he\'s just beccome head strong, maybe he needs to lose the blinkers, maybe he just didnt\' want Wildcat Red to get loose but any way we look at it, this horses best chance in two weeks is to be further back and I would therefore like to see a slower breeze next weekend before the race

If anyone finds any video of the breeze, would love to see that if they could post a link

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> good that he\'s sound to be able to breeze like
> that
>
> not sure I would be lookin for that fast of a
> breeze though. (look how much faster than other
> few who breezed)
>
> I know fast horses breeze fast but I think this
> horse would be better if he laid off the pace a
> bit and I don\'t think fast breezes help the cause
> there

Jim its getting close and we need SCIENCE. I do not think that workouts are
worthy of analysis because there are so many variables. If a horse who has
been working either fast or slow, and then there is some reversal, then you
have my attention.
 
> I\'m not a trainer but he\'s clearly not as good
> right on the pace as he is back a little further
> with the ability to then close.  This reminds me a
> bit of the Super Saver situation where he was no
> good in the Arkansas Derby close to the pace and
> he had no kick left but Calvin got him to relax in
> the Derby and he had some close.  I know weak
> field and sloppy track etc but he clearly had more
> in the tank in the Derby after holding back off
> the pace.

Jim, Supe takes too much grief in the TG world. Jimbo says that Supe and MTB
are the two worst Derby winners ever. I do not see how Supe was \"bad\'
in the Ark Derby, second beaten a neck, I think pairing before coming back to
prevail in Louisville.

A fun derby that year. I liked Lookin at Lucky quite a bit -- the versatility
and productivity of his sire is somehow underrated -- but figured he would be
3/1 and talked myself off of him. Then after he drew post one I told myself
that he would (Denman voice) have to sprout wings to win from what to me is
that deepest abyss, post one in a 20 runner Derby. Of course he ended up
going off at odds of over 6/1 and I couldn\'t stay away. And of course he
endured 10 furlongs of torture, and I with him

Jim, you know who reminds me of LAL this year? CC. Besides the fact that CC,
like LAL, will be favored if he stands in the gate, CC had an EXTENSIVE 2YO
foundation, winning a baby race in the Spring, a stakes winner by Summer.

The factoid people like to throw out is that no runner unraced at two has won
the Derby since 1882, but look at Big Brown. How much bottom could he have
gotten in that one race as a 2YO? I still prefer Derby runners with
foundation and seasoning, perhaps (to me) what makes CC logical.
 
> Arod\'s  best chance in two weeks is to be further back and
> I would therefore like to see a slower breeze next
> weekend before the race.

Ok Jimmy but if its too slow you won\'t be happy either!

Jimmy this future wager is eating you up! Just get him to the race, man.
 
> If anyone finds any video of the breeze, would
> love to see that if they could post a link

Still not tossed and looking good:

1) CC.
2) Saaaamraaaat. Wicked was pulling away in the Wood, but which of the two is
more likely to give another solid effort? Sam will be slower than the main
contenders but his consistency is impressive. Question to me is whether he
will be able to quicken and advance late because now he kind of seems like a
grinder. Has what we used to call \"iron\' form, albeit running at Aquedump.
3) Chitu. Not quite as an extensive 2YO foundation as CC, but (to me) this one
has looked like he was going strong at the end of his races. Baffert.
4) Danza. Who knows? Getting good at the right time? Definitely helped by
milk carton worthy efforts by Tapiture and Strong Mandate at Hot Springs.
Four good races lifetime, not much mileage on the odometer, definitely a wild
card.

[touchgold]

and fwiw, I dont think chitu saw candy boy coming until he was past him in the robert lewis....seems like he held his own once he saw him...

[TGJB]

Jim-- hard to say how fast that work was given so few worked, we don\'t know whether he or they were asked, etc. But it\'s still 16 days out, anyway-- it\'s not like he worked 57, 4 days out, which has been done. I\'ll be interested to see what Welsch has to say, he\'s been good about this.

Richie-- here\'s a stat I won\'t get to use in the seminar, with Constitution and Bayern out. Of the 15 horses to run in the Derby without starting at two, in the Archives, exactly zero ran a new top in the Derby. Both those horses were going to need one. What\'s interesting is that 5 paired their tops, a much higher % than average.

I don\'t the issue is \"bottom\", or number of starts at two. There are reasons these horses don\'t start earlier-- and you\'re asking an awful lot of them in a short period to come from not being able to start to doing enough to qualify, but not be knocked out (or injured) by all that stress. I think both Constitution and Bayern may have shown the effects.

By the way-- someone is sure to bring up Barbaro, who just got under the wire to start at two. Yes, he ran big in the Derby. But up to that point he had gotten away with slow figures-- once he exploded and ran the big one, it was sayonara.

[BB]

Wicked Strong\'s workout can be found on NYRA\'s YouTube channel, which you can access via the NYRA website.

[miff]

Jockey Club morons could put the contender workouts for the TC up at its site.Something many players would welcome. Better than idiotic bus tour the pay for.

[richiebee]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> By the way-- someone is sure to bring up Barbaro,
> who just got under the wire to start at two. Yes,
> he ran big in the Derby. But up to that point he
> had gotten away with slow figures-- once he
> exploded and ran the big one, it was sayonara.

Barbaro also unique in that all three of his 3YO preps were at
9 furlongs. As to Barbaro just getting under the wire to start at two,
recheck the TG Archives.

[TGJB]

Boy, was my memory wrong-- not just about that, but about how fast Barbaro ran pre-Derby. Must be thinking of someone else...

[covelj70]

I hear you on the work JB

I\'m not worried about the work knocking him out or anything like that, I am more interested in getting the horse used to settling down a bit

watch how Calvin works the horses he\'s riding at CD before they run in the Derby.

He does the same thing with all of them.  Takes then down to the rail, Slow early then comes home fast.  He got Super Saver to settle further off the pace in the Derby than he had in the Ark Derby.  Now, maybe that was becuase he was too fresh for the Ark Derby or other reasons but I like how Calvin rides those types

Richie, your memory may be better than mine but I thought that Super Saver was 3rd back a few lengths in the Ark Derby?

[miff]

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Thursday, April 17, 2014   Contact: Bob Curran Jr. (212) 521-5326
Array of Prominent Owners, Trainers Pledge to Make Veterinary Records Public

A large and growing number of prominent Thoroughbred owners and trainers have voluntarily pledged to make available to the public veterinary records of their horses competing in graded stakes races in the United States and Canada, The Jockey Club announced today.

Such records will cover the 14-day period preceding and including the day of each race and will be available on the day of the race at least two hours prior to post time. The pledges take effect immediately.

The decision by the owners and trainers follows closely on the heels of an April 14 public proposal by Ogden Mills Phipps, the chairman of The Jockey Club, suggesting that the veterinary records for every horse entered in this year’s Triple Crown races be made available as a means to bring greater credibility and integrity to Thoroughbred racing at a time when millions are watching.

\"The outpouring of support for this initiative has been dramatic and this is just a preliminary list of those who have stepped forward in the past few days,\" Phipps said. \"I commend each of the owners and trainers for taking a bold step to enhance the image of our sport, and it is our sincere hope that other owners and trainers will soon adopt this voluntary practice as well.\"

The current list of owners and trainers includes Adena Springs (Frank Stronach), John Amerman, Roger Attfield (trainer), Antony Beck, Gary Biszantz, Bill Casner, Mark Casse, Claiborne Farm, Christophe Clement (trainer), Darley and Godolphin (HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum), Adele Dilschneider, Dogwood Stable (Cot Campbell), Neil Drysdale (trainer), Will Farish, Glen Hill Farm, Harris Farms (John Harris), Stuart S. Janney III, Live Oak Stud (Charlotte Weber), D. Wayne Lukas (trainer), Earle Mack, Richard Mandella (trainer), Michael Matz (trainer), Shug McGaughey (trainer), Kenny McPeek (trainer), Graham Motion (trainer), Bill Mott (trainer), Phipps Stable (Ogden Mills Phipps), Pin Oak Stud (Josephine Abercrombie), Dr. Hiram Polk Jr., Dr. J. David Richardson, John Shirreffs (trainer), Al Stall Jr. (trainer), Dallas Stewart (trainer), Stella Thayer, Stonestreet Stables (Barbara Banke), Three Chimneys Farm (Robert Clay and Borges Torrealba), Tic Stable (Ian Highet), West Point Thoroughbreds (Terry Finley), Peter Willmott, Ian Wilkes (trainer), WinStar Farm (Kenny Troutt) and Woodford Racing (Bill Farish).

Owners and trainers who would like to add their names to the list of participants may do so by visiting The Jockey Club website at jockeyclub.com.

As an industry service, The Jockey Club will provide on its website (jockeyclub.com) a list of owners and trainers who pledge to make veterinary records available, and the list will be updated on a regular basis.

Additional details regarding this initiative will be announced in the near future.

Also, as an extension of its On Call media assistance program that is designed to provide accurate veterinary information, the American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) will provide to media, upon request, general information about medications and treatments described in those records. AAEP will not, however, provide information or perspective on any specific horse, treatment or procedure because an On Call veterinarian will not have examined the horse in question.

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> Richie, your memory may be better than mine but I
> thought that Super Saver was 3rd back a few
> lengths in the Ark Derby?


Jimmy I\'m getting that info from the TG archives...

[ajkreider]

I thought Chitu did not look strong at all at the end of the Sunland.  He held off Midnight Hawk, but it was, afterall, Midnight Hawk.  And the time was 13:30.  I mean, Commissioner gained ground on him in the stretch.

[covelj70]

you are right as usual

[richiebee]

I think Curlin may be the best anomaly to the whole unraced at two taboo.

Unraced at 2, he broke his maiden at GP in February by 12+ lengths. He then won
the Rebel and Ark Derby before finishing third at Churchill, winning the
Preakness and getting beat a head by Rags to Richiebee, TAPs first win in the
Triple Crown series.

His TG #s, beginning with the maiden score and ending at Belmont: 0²,
0¹, negative 0², 0, negative 3, and negative 0².

One of the great TG sheets ever, along with Wise Dan, who has gone negative in
more than half of his lifetime starts.

[phil23]

One thing about A Rod, he\'s at least one of the one\'s that have run fast enough already. And unlike almost all the rest of them, he\'ll be (and is currently) a huge price relatively speaking. Think that more than makes up for any questions about not passing etc last time. Also, his race spacing is awesome. And he gets 5 (not 4 or 3) weeks coming into it.