Figuring out Medal Count

[big18741]

I don\'t see a problem with his pedigree.I think he\'s one of the few who\'ll handle the distance.

Dynaformer on top alone probably gets him the extra furlong.
Unbridled Song on the bottom should be okay-maybe neutral.
I don\'t see traffic problems since he\'s handled inside and outside.
Wide another story so middle in would be best.

I think he\'s gonna be okay on Churchill dirt similar to how Dullahan and Paddy O were coming out of their Bluegrass.I was expecting a # similar to their last prep in the Bluegrass.They needed a new top to win and both pretty much paired getting into the tri.They were both 12-1 in the Derby.

Is he Stately Victor(one I guessed horribly wrong on) or something better?

[covelj70]

hah, Big, I went down the toilet with Stately Victor as well!

that probably clouds my judgement on Medal Count for the Derby (which is always dangerous)

I like him alot as a horse (as per my posts before the translyvania and bluegrass) but a) tough for me to play a horse with two races so close to the Derby, b) any horse who jumps up like that on the synthetic is likely to more of a synthetic/turf specialist.  I think all of his best races have been on the turf/synthetic for a reason

totally agree with you on the distance but I will let this guy beat me and then look for him in the Secretariat at Arlington this summer

[big18741]

I\'m probably going down the drain with this one thinking he can run as well on dirt.

I\'ve heard that Dynaformer only had four sons run in the Derby:

Barbaro-win
Blumin Affair-3rd
Perfect Drift-3rd
Brilliant Speed another poly/grass type ran a new top of 2.5 at Cd

Have to check the archives to see if he\'s only had those four run but some pretty good results on the Churchill surface at the distance.

Mom was a dirt/grass sprinter and she produced a dirt winner of the Debutant at CD.

This horse is gonna torture me for the next two weeks.

[elkurzhal]

his 3 dirt runs give probably as little info as 3 races could.

1st out win at Ellis, with trouble
Breeders Cup flop at long odds with no Lasix
subpar Gulfstream race which.  Seems to have been a lot of horses not care for the track this winter and run a lot better next out.

Trakus had him running 31\' farther than the winner (faster avg mph) in the Bluegrass.  

In my experience horses running back quick and run a top or at least within a couple points of the previous race are a good bet to repeat when given a bit more time.  

They TGI for Dynaformer includes all synthetics.  The old Pro-ride (very turflike) numbers may be bringing that average up some.  Would be interesting if TG could run a study of the 184 Dynaformers running on synthetic and just look at the \"polytrack\" Kee, Wo, AP, TP and leave out the other versions.  From the Beyer data I have the Dirt and Poly numbers are pretty close.   Really with pro-ride no longer in use, but be valid to strike the data of all those races anyway...

So he checks the boxes for fast, distance, current form, and price.
any negatives are a bit of a guess, seems like a bad choice of horses to let beat you, IMO.