Analyzing The Analysis

[Tavasco]

TGJB

This post is not intended to be critical, righteous or wrongeous. In reviewing previous audio video seminars from the archives (A wonderful feature of you site) 2012 caught my attention. My curiosity concerns east vs west.

In 2012 you recommended the right way to play the race was against Bodemeister and I\'ll Have Another in the exacta. Additionally you had a group from which you expected the winner to emerge.

In a general way (the path to CD) California Chrome & Hoppertunity correlate to the exacta horses in 2012. That race was strictly a two horse affair. The expected East Coast fast ones did not compete.

If you reflected on your 2012 analysis, I assume you did, was there anything you took away from 2012 that refined your methodology or parameters going forward that\'s worth considering this year? Or anything that\'s in a state of flux and not to technical?

Races rarely end up exactly as we expect them but in 2012 the East vs West match-up was surprising by the failure of East Coast horses. I know it is just one year of many and in another year the opposite would be true. It\'s just that my subconscious keeps bugging me that there is something about the Wood that discounts it. Jerkens reference (Jockey instr) to the track anomaly (ridge in stretch), the pace? The jump-up winner?

Thanks for any gray areas and/or thoughts that don\'t fit into the context of the derby package. Your participation on the board sure is a plus.

[Tavasco]

Oops, I had not noticed the discussion already underway. My bad timing.

[TGJB]

Well... I think you found the one race in the last 4 where any California horses hit the board. And in that one IHA ran back to a number I gave him in California, and Bodie ran worse than his California top.

Problem with that race was I hated IHA\'s pattern, not his top. I would bet against him again.

Listen, it\'s a 20 horse field. It\'s not the Super Bowl, with only two teams. You\'re going to be wrong a lot, the key is to get paid when you\'re right.